Simulating deep CO2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model

Transport sector restructuring to achieve deep GHG emission cuts has attracted much attention because transportation is important for the economy and inflexible in greenhouse gas emission reduction. The aim of this paper is to simulate transition towards low carbon transportation in the European Union until 2050 and to assess the ensuing macroeconomic and sectorial impacts. Transport restructuring is dynamically simulated using a new transport-oriented version of the computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3 which is linked with the PRIMES-TREMOVE energy and transport sectors model. The analysis draws from comparing a reference scenario projection for the EU member-states up to 2050 to alternative transport policy scenarios and sensitivities which involve deep cutting of CO₂ emissions. The simulations show that transport restructuring affects the economy through multiple channels, including investment in infrastructure, the purchasing and manufacturing of new technology vehicles, the production of alternative fuels, such as biofuels and electricity. The analysis identifies positive impacts of industrial activity and other sectors stemming from these activities. However, the implied costs of freight and passenger transportation are of crucial importance for the net impact on GDP and income. Should the transport sector transformation imply high unit costs of transport services, crowding out effects in the economy can offset the benefits. This implies that the technology and productivity progress assumptions can be decisive for the sign of GDP impacts. A robust conclusion is that the transport sector decarbonisation, is likely to have only small negative impacts on the EU GDP compared to business as usual.     

Assessing the employment agglomeration and social accessibility impacts of high speed rail in Eastern Australia

There is growing interest in establishing additional evidence, under the umbrella of the wider economy impacts of transport infrastructure projects, to support transport projects in general and public transport projects in particular that struggle to obtain benefit–cost ratios sufficient to gain the support of financial agencies. This paper focuses on one element of wider economy impacts, often referred to as effective economic (employment) density or employment agglomeration impacts, and another, less usually identified, social accessibility impact (SAI) which we refer to as effective social density, which in broad terms provide, correspondingly, evidence of the potential gains in work-related output (often referred to as productivity gains) and potential gains in non-work-related outputs. Both are associated with gains in individual and household benefit attributable to improved accessibility to services linked with populations and particular locations. The SAIs may capture some of the induced benefits in those jurisdictions where these are included routinely in benefit–cost analysis, and the methodology here is most appropriate to those settings where an existing calibrated demand curve may not be available. Using the proposed high speed rail (HSR) project between Sydney and Melbourne as the empirical setting, we identify economic agglomeration and social accessibility benefits for work and non-work related activity respectively. We find the former to be relatively small compared to the significant gains associated with non-work related travel activity, suggesting the greatest benefits associated with HSR, especially for those residents outside of the major metropolitan areas, will be non-work related travel activity.     

A cost and CO2 comparison of using trains and higher capacity trucks when UK FMCG companies collaborate

Companies working in a collaboration are able to achieve higher vehicle capacity utilisation and reduced empty running, resulting in lower costs and improved sustainability through reduced emissions and congestion. Collaboration produces higher volumes of goods to be moved than individual companies which means that further efficiencies may be possible by relaxing the freight mode constraints and considering rail and higher capacity vehicles. This paper explains how real world data has been used in a model to quantify the economic and environmental benefits in the FMCG sector delivered through collaboration utilising road and rail freight modes. Data for one month was provided by 10 FMCG companies and included freight transport flows between depots and customers, inter depot movements, and supplier collections. Detailed road and rail costs and operating characteristics were obtained and, with the transport flows, applied to a network design model which was used to validate the company data sets. A strategy examining the potential use of alternative higher capacity vehicles and rail for the flows between nine regional consolidation centres showed cost and CO₂ savings. Just under half the inter-regional flows benefited from double deck trailers, longer heavier vehicles for 30% of the flows and rail with different wagon configurations for the rest. In summary there was a 23% reduction in cost with 58% fewer road kilometres and a 46% reduction in CO₂ emissions. The ability to backhaul the same mode of transport between most of the regional centres was one of the strengths of this strategy.     

Rail-road crossing impacts: an international synthesis

Rail-road crossings generate a range of transport, economic, social and environmental impacts. While much research has focused on selected impacts such as safety, little consideration has been given to wider impacts. The aim of this research was to therefore develop a holistic understanding of the impacts of rail-road crossings (both at-grade and grade-separated) and to identify key gaps in knowledge in this field. An international synthesis of rail-road crossing impacts was developed through a detailed literature review, which revealed a total of 18 different types of impacts associated with rail-road crossings. The review found that most research to date has focused on quantifying transport and economic impacts, particularly safety and road vehicle delay, with little consideration given to social and environmental impacts. A number of research gaps have been identified which provide a clear agenda for future research. These gaps include the use of empirical evidence to support impact assessments, and the need to better understand the impacts of grade-separating rail-road crossings in terms of safety, travel time variability, land use, traffic flow, rail vehicle delay, disability access, and crime.     

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.     

The impact of transport policies on railroad intermodal freight competitiveness – The case of Belgium

This paper discusses the impact of three freight transport policies aiming to promote railroad intermodal transport in Europe, and examines the case of Belgium as a testing ground. These policies consist in subsidizing intermodal transport operations (such as in Belgium, to stimulate rail transport), internalizing external costs (as recommended by the European Union in order to foster cleaner modes), and adopting a system perspective when optimizing the location of inland intermodal terminals. The study proposes an innovative mixed integer intermodal freight location-allocation model based on hub-location theory and deals with non-linear transport costs in order to replicate economies of distance. Our analysis suggests that subsidizing has a significant impact on the volumes transported by intermodal transport, and, to a lesser extent, that optimizing terminal location increases the competitiveness of intermodal transport. On the other hand, according to our assumptions, internalizing external costs can negatively impact the promotion of intermodality. This finding indicates that innovative last-mile transports are needed in order to reduce the external impacts of drayage operations.     

High-Speed Rail Operations on an Existing Network: An Assessment Model for China

High-speed rail operations have the potential to reduce the long-term decline in rail passenger travel demand for the medium to long distance inter-urban markets. Such decline has been evident through most of the industrialized countries where air and road transport tend to be the dominant modes. In China, the operations of long distance high-speed rail on fully dedicated track is not very easy to implement, due to the high proportion of passengers who travel between high-speed and conventional railways. An alternative approach would be to allow for mixed operations with trains of various speeds on the same track. This article puts forward a simulation model designed to allow an evaluation of the most efficient distance for high-speed rail operations under mixed train speed scenarios. The model takes into account the main operating parameters such as passenger volumes, train speeds, capital and maintenance costs, train operating costs and energy consumption. The distance of high-speed train running on conventional rail that will yield the most economic benefit can be estimated using the model. The article includes the results of using the model for a specific example. It is concluded that large-scale high-speed trains have the potential to be successfully operated on conventional rail networks.     

An assessment of the performance of the European long intermodal freight trains (LIFTS)

Intermodal rail/road freight transport has always been considered as a competitive alternative to its road freight counterpart in the European medium- to long-distance corridors (markets). Such consideration has been based on the increasing competitiveness of some innovative rail services and the existing and prospective performance of both modes in terms of the full social – internal or operational and external – costs. The most recent innovation of rail technologies and related services launched by some European railway companies, still at the conceptual level, is the Long Intermodal Freight Train (LIFT). This is supposed to be a block train operating in long-distance corridors (markets) with a substantial and regular freight demand.This paper develops analytical models for assessing the performance of the LIFTs, the already-operating Conventional Intermodal Freight Trains (CIFTs), and their road counterpart as well. The performance consists of the full – internal (private) and external – costs of the door-to-door delivery of loading units – containers, swap-bodies, and semi-trailers. The internal costs embrace the operational costs of the transport (rail and road) and intermodal terminal operators. The external costs include the costs of the impacts of door-to-door delivery of loading units on society and the environment. These negative externalities include noise, air pollution, traffic accidents, and congestion.The models are applied to a simplified version of intermodal and road transport system using inputs from the European freight transport sector. The aims are to compare the full costs of particular modalities in order to investigate the potential of the LIFTs as compared with the CIFTs in improving the internal efficiency of the rail freight sector and its competitiveness with respect to its road counterpart. In addition, the paper attempts to assess some effects on the potential modal shift of EU (European Union) transport policies on internalizing transport externalities.     

Impacts of trade related sustainability strategies on freight transportation: Modelling framework and application for France

The circular and functional economies are being presented in the literature as potential strategies for future sustainable societies. In terms of the consequences for supply chains, they will promote a much more dispersed and diversified, local and network based usage of goods than the current economy, which is comparatively linear, concentrated, long distance oriented and scale economy based. A gap in the literature is the assessment of the effects of these systems on freight transport flows. In our paper, we present a first attempt at estimating this impact using freight transport scenario building and quantitative modelling. In order to translate the main parameters that characterize these systems into factors determining freight transportation volumes, we develop a framework based on a typology of goods categories describing functional and spatial proximity between producers and consumers. In order to simulate changes in the economy, we develop scenarios for the shifting of goods from one category to another and, additionally, include internalization policies that should guide their realization. We calculate the impacts on freight flows using a new interregional transport model for France that includes distribution chains and produces estimates of external costs of transport. Our results show that circular and functional economies could lead to a 2–5% reduction of air pollutant emissions and up to a 14–26% reduction if combined with the internalization of external costs. The scenario with ongoing mass production for differentiated demand is found to lead to a 5% increase of environmental impacts compared to the baseline.     

Evaluating the public investment mix in US freight transportation infrastructure

This research empirically evaluates the public sector investment in the US freight transportation infrastructure. In particular, the infrastructures to support the two most comparable modes of freight transportation – highway and intermodal rail – are examined as alternatives for public fund allocation. Indicators for public sector transportation infrastructure investment mix are established based on financial analysis of both private and social costs and benefits, as well as the propensity of freight shippers to utilize such infrastructures. The research results in recommendations for the aggregate allocation of public funds in the US based on these indicators. We find that approximately a quarter of truck freight could be handled at a 25% lower cost if rail infrastructure to support it existed. Because an additional 80% reduction in social costs could be achieved through this modal conversion, the public sector is a critical participant in creating a more efficient transportation infrastructure.     

Investigation of environmental justice analysis in airport planning practice from 2000 to 2010

Municipal airport owners and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regularly evaluate capacity and demand to decide if and when airports need more infrastructure. New infrastructure can alter the profile of noise, emissions, and land use, which may affect the quality of life for airport-adjacent communities. When the FAA and airport owners initiate infrastructure expansion, they must conduct environmental justice analysis to measure the distribution of negative externalities on nearby communities. This research investigates the environmental justice methodologies and narratives reported in planning documents for nineteen airport capacity expansions planned or deployed from 2000 to 2010 in the United States. The mixed-methods approach analyzes airport operations data, spatial demographic data, and planning artifacts to determine whether the environmental justice analyses were robust. This research proposes alternative metrics, the ‘Risk of disproportionate impact’ and ‘Capacity strain’, to further contextualize the presence of protected population groups alongside capacity needs. The main finding of the study is that the planning documents did not consistently detect environmental justice impacts, nor did they consistently confer importance to those impacts when high proportions of protected populations were detected. As a result, the social costs of collective airport expansion are unclear and likely underestimated. This study identifies two limitations that undermined the environmental justice analysis throughout the airport sample: (1) inconsistent methodological choices impeded the detection of impacts and, (2) narrative interpretations tended to ‘null’ the finding even when impacts were detected.     

Automated shunting of rail container wagons in ports and terminal areas

The development of intermodal container transport is hampered in part by the cost associated with the shunting of trains in marshalling yards, inland and port railway terminals. Many new technologies have been developed in the past decade, but have still not been applied because of high capital investment costs, lack of sufficient market demand and uncertain rates of return. The key for increasing the competitiveness of intermodal container transport by rail is the operation of heavy haul container trains between port and inland railway terminals more frequently with fast, flexible and automatic transhipment, shunting and coupling of container wagons. The operation of self-driven railcars equipped with automatic centre coupling on terminal tracks, which can also be train-hauled on conventional hinterland railway lines, would enable a reduction of shunting and transhipment time and costs in intermodal container terminals by more than 30%.     

Planning hierarchical urban transit systems for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

Public transit systems with high occupancy can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to low-occupancy transportation modes, but current transit systems have not been designed to reduce environmental impacts. This motivates the study of the benefits of design and operational approaches for reducing the environmental impacts of transit systems. For example, transit agencies may replace level-of-service (LOS) by vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a criterion in evaluating design and operational changes. In previous work, we explored the unintended consequences of lowering transit LOS on emissions in a single-technology transit system. Herein, we extend the analysis to account for a more realistic case: a transit system with a hierarchical structure (trunk and feeder lines) providing service to a city where demand is elastic. By considering the interactions between the trunk and the feeder systems, we provide a quantitative basis for designing and operating integrated urban transit systems that can reduce GHG emissions and societal costs. We find that highly elastic transit demand may cancel emission reduction potentials resulting from lowering LOS, due to demand shifts to lower occupancy vehicles. However, for mass transit modes, these potentials are still significant. Transit networks with buses, bus rapid transit or light rail as trunk modes should be designed and operated near the cost-optimal point when the demand is highly elastic, while this is not required for metro. We find that the potential for unintended consequences increases with the size of the city. Our results are robust to uncertainties in the costs and emissions parameters.     

“十三五”时期我国综合交通投资和运输形势分析

以综合交通运输行业发展中的建设投资、路网设施、旅客运输、货物运输方面统计数据指标为基础,通过分析总量指标在“十三五”时期的绝对值、增速,以及各交通运输方式结构指标变化情况,并与“十二五”时期相关指标变化进行对比分析,总结了“十三五”时期的综合交通建设投资、旅客运输和货物运输形势,表明“十三五”时期是综合交通运输从高速度增长向高质量发展的过渡阶段,具体表现为总量扩张趋缓、结构优化明显、升级动力减弱等三大特征,体现在交通投资和供给需求规模增速放缓,高快速交通方式的供需比重增加,交通生产投入的边际产出趋向递减等方面。     

A decision analysis framework for intermodal transport: Comparing fuel price increases and the internalisation of external costs

This paper presents the impact of fuel price increases on the market area of intermodal transport terminals. Aim of this research is to determine whether an increase in fuel prices is sufficient enough to raise the market area of intermodal transport to the same degree that would be accomplished by stimulating intermodal transport through policy instruments. Therefore, several fuel price scenarios are analysed in order to verify the impact of different fuel price evolutions on the market area of unimodal road transport compared to intermodal transport in Belgium. The LAMBIT-model (Location Analysis for Belgian Intermodal Terminals), which is a GIS-based model (Macharis and Pekin, 2008), is used to analyse the different fuel price increases and enables a visualisation of the impact on the market area. The LAMBIT model incorporates the different network layers for each transport mode by setting up a GIS network that includes four different layers: the road network, the rail network, the inland waterways network and the final haulage network. The geographic locations of the intermodal terminals and the port of Antwerp are added as nodes in the network and the Belgian municipality centres are defined and connected to the different network layers. Based on the different fuel price scenarios representing respectively a fuel price increase with 10% (low price case), 50% (business as usual case) and 90% (high price case), the results of the LAMBIT model show that the market areas rise in favour of intermodal barge/road and intermodal rail/road. Depending on the scenario, the degree of modal shift however differs. Additionally, in order to compare policy measures with the effect of a fuel price increase, the internalisation of the external costs is analysed with the LAMBIT model. For some years, the European Commission is supporting the idea that transportation costs should reflect the true impacts on environment and society, and is relentlessly pushing towards the so called ‘internalisation of external costs’ as a policy instrument in order to establish fair and efficient pricing of different transport modes. This requires monetarizing the external effects of transport and adding them to the already internalized costs in order to give the correct price signals. Results of this comparative analysis performed with the LAMBIT model are also presented in this paper.     

Own and cross-price elasticities of demand for domestic flights and intercity trains in the U.S.

In 2009, the U.S. Federal Government announced its plan to invest in the expansion of the passenger rail system, instead of adding to the freeway or aviation systems. On the other hand, environmental studies show that passenger rails have a lower polluting impact than flights or cars. In order to evaluate whether consumers would switch from flights to trains and use the new rail system, this paper estimates the own and cross-price elasticities of demand for domestic flights and passenger trains using the methodology described in Berry (1994). Specifically, the changes in demand for domestic flights and trains with respect to their prices are evaluated. The static model in this study suggests that the substitutability between these two modes of transport is minimal, in other words, travelers will to change their choices is very small given the configuration of the transportation system when the notice was made. In particular, train trips are substituted more easily.     

The digital revolution and worthwhile use of travel time: implications for appraisal and forecasting

Savings in travel time and more specifically their monetary value typically constitute the main benefit to justify major investment in transport schemes. However, worthwhile use of travel time is an increasingly prominent phenomenon of the digital age. Accordingly, questions are increasingly being asked regarding whether values of time used by countries around the world based on their appraisal approaches are too high. This paper offers the most comprehensive examination of our theoretical and empirical understandings of international appraisal approaches and how they account for worthwhile use of travel time. It combines the economics perspective with wider social science insight and reaches the conclusion that past revolutions in transport that have made longer and quicker journeys possible are now joined by a digital revolution that is reducing the disutility of travel time. This revolution offers potential economic benefit that comes at a fraction of the cost of major investments in transport that are predicated on saving travel time. The paper highlights the challenges faced in both current and indeed potential alternative future appraisal approaches. Such challenges are rooted in the difficulty of measuring time use and productivity with sufficient accuracy and over time to credibly account for how travel time factors into the economic outcomes from social and working practices in the knowledge economy. There is a need for further research to: establish how improvements in the opportunities for and the quality of worthwhile use of travel time impact on the valuation of travel time savings for non-business travel; improve our understanding of how productive use of time impacts on the valuation of time savings for business travellers; and estimate how these factors have impacted on the demand for different modes of travel.     

Long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks on land-use change: an international review of empirical studies

Improvements in geographical information systems, the wider availability of high-resolution digital data and more sophisticated econometric techniques have all contributed to increasing academic interest and activity in long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks (TINs) on land use (LU). This paper provides a systematic review of recent empirical evidence from the USA, Europe and East Asia, classified regarding the type of transport infrastructure (road or rail), LU indicator (land cover, population or employment density, development type) and outcome (significance, relationship’s direction) as well as influential exogenous factors. Proximity to the rail network is generally associated with population growth (particularly soon after the development of railway infrastructure), conversion to residential uses and the development of higher residential densities. Meanwhile, proximity to the road network is frequently associated with increases in employment densities as well as the conversion of land to a variety of urban uses including commercial and industrial development. Compared with road infrastructure, the impact of rail infrastructure is often less significant for land cover or population and employment density change. The extent of TINs’ impact on LU over time can be explained by the saturation in TIN-related accessibility and LU development.     

Assessing the CO2 impact of current and future rail track in the UK

This paper investigates the CO₂ impact of current and future UK rail track and estimates the material, process and transport emissions associated with construction, maintenance and end-of-life activities for designs at high and low traffic loads. Analysis shows that for current track configurations, track with concrete sleepers has the lowest CO₂ impact, followed by steel, hardwood and softwood. Several potential future rail track designs have been analysed including embedded rail and double and quadruple-headed rail. All future track designs have a lower impact than current designs, but this improvement is more marked at high traffic loads. Up to a 40% reduction in CO₂ impact could be achieved if the UK rail network was to move from conventional track design to a double-headed embedded rail design. Key levers for reducing the CO₂ impact of track are identified as service life extension, traffic load reduction and the selection of low impact track designs.     

Estimating traffic demand risk – A multiscale analysis

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950–2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.