Microscopic pedestrian simulation model combined with a tactical model for route choice behaviour

This study proposes a microscopic pedestrian simulation model for evaluating pedestrian flow. Recently, several pedestrian models have been proposed to evaluate pedestrian flow in crowded situations for the purpose of designing facilities. However, current pedestrian simulation models do not explain the negotiation process of collision avoidance between pedestrians, which can be important for representing pedestrian behaviour in congested situations. This study builds a microscopic model of pedestrian behaviour using a two-player game and assuming that pedestrians anticipate movements of other pedestrians so as to avoid colliding with them. A macroscopic tactical model is also proposed to determine a macroscopic path to a given destination. The results of the simulation model are compared with experimental data and observed data in a railway station. Several characteristics of pedestrian flows such as traffic volume and travel time in multidirectional flows, temporal–spatial collision avoidance behaviour and density distribution in the railway station are reproduced in the simulation.     

Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.     

Simulating pedestrian movements at signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong

This paper presents a new pedestrian simulation (PS) model for signalized crosswalks in Hong Kong. This PS model is capable of estimating the variations of walking speed particularly on the effects of bi-directional pedestrian flows so as to determine the minimum required duration of pedestrian crossing time. Video records taken from the observational surveys at the selected crosswalk in urban area were used to extract the required data for model calibration. It was found that the design walking speed for signalized crosswalks should be varied by the effects of the bi-directional pedestrian flows. It was also interesting to note that the negative impact of the bi-directional flow effects (ranging from uni-directional to bi-directional pedestrian flows) on the chance of pedestrian crossing the crosswalk is increasing from free-flow to at-capacity flow conditions. The new PS model is also validated using an independent data set so as to examine the reliability of the simulation results. The validation results show that the new PS model can provide an accurate evaluation on the changes of walking speed and its standard deviation under different scenarios with particular emphasis on the effects of the bi-directional pedestrian flows. The advancement of this PS model can be applied to assess the effects of each improvement measure and to evaluate the benefits of each scenario in practice.     

Potential-based dynamic pedestrian flow assignment

This study proposes a potential-based dynamic pedestrian flow assignment model to optimize the evacuation time needed for all pedestrians to leave an indoor or outdoor area with internal obstacles and multiple exits, e.g., railway station, air terminal, plaza, and park. In the model, the dynamic loading of pedestrian flows on a two-dimensional space is formulated by a cell transmission model, the movement of crowds is driven by space potential, and the optimization of evacuation time is solved by a proportional swapping process. In this way, the proposed model can be applied to not only efficiently optimize the evacuation process of a crowd with large scale but also recognize local congestion dynamics during crowd evacuation. Finally, a set of numerical examples are presented to show the proposed model’s effectiveness for optimizing crowd evacuation process and its application to design a class of variable guide sign systems.     

Assessing the usage and level-of-service of pedestrian facilities in train stations: A Swiss case study

A framework for assessing the usage and level-of-service of rail access facilities is presented. It consists of two parts. A dynamic demand estimator allows to obtain time-dependent pedestrian origin–destination demand within walking facilities. Using that demand, a traffic assignment model describes the propagation of pedestrians through the station, providing an estimate of prevalent traffic conditions in terms of flow, walking times, speed and density. The corresponding level-of-service of the facilities can be directly obtained. The framework is discussed at the example of Lausanne railway station. For this train station, a rich set of data sources including travel surveys, pedestrian counts and trajectories has been collected in collaboration with the Swiss Federal Railways. Results show a good performance of the framework. To underline its practical applicability, a six-step planning guideline is presented that can be used to design and optimize rail access facilities for new or existing train stations. In the long term, the framework may also be used for crowd management, involving real-time monitoring and control of pedestrian flows.     

Optimal control strategies with an extended cell transmission model for massive vehicular‐pedestrian mixed flows in the evacuation zone

This paper presents an integrated model to design routing and signal plans for massive mixed pedestrian‐vehicle flows within the evacuation zone. The proposed model, with its embedded formulations for pedestrians and vehicles in the same evacuation network, can effectively take their potential conflicts into account and generate the optimal routing strategies to guide evacuees toward either the pickup locations or their parking areas during an evacuation. The proposed model, enhancing the cell transmission model with the notion of sub‐cells, mainly captures the complex movements in the vehicle‐pedestrian flows and can concurrently optimizes both the signals for pedestrian‐vehicle flows and the movement paths for evacuees. An illustrating example concerning the evacuation around the M&T Bank Stadium area has been used to demonstrate the application potential of the proposed model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A pedestrian flow model considering the impact of local density: Voronoi diagram based heuristics approach

Local density, which is an indicator for comfortable moving of a pedestrian, is rarely considered in traditional force based and heuristics based pedestrian flow models. However, comfortable moving is surely a demand of pedestrian in normal situations. Recently, Voronoi diagram had been successfully adopted to obtain the local density of a pedestrian in empirical studies. In this paper, Voronoi diagram is introduced into the heuristics based pedestrian flow model. It provides not only local density but also other information for determining moving velocity and direction. Those information include personal space, safe distance, neighbors, and three elementary characteristics directions. Several typical scenarios are set up to verify the proposed model. The simulation results show that the velocity-density relations and capacities of bottleneck are consistent with the empirical data, and many self-organization phenomena, i.e., arching phenomenon and lane formation, are also reproduced. The pedestrians are likely to be homogeneously distributed when they are sensitive to local density, otherwise pedestrians are non-uniformly distributed and the stop-and-go waves are likely to be reproduced. Such results indicate that the Voronoi diagram is a promising tool in modeling pedestrian dynamics.     

Specification and calibration of a microscopic model for pedestrian dynamic simulation at signalized intersections: A hybrid approach

Macroscopic pedestrian models for bidirectional flow analysis encounter limitations in describing microscopic dynamics at crosswalks. Pedestrian behavior at crosswalks is typically characterized by the evasive effect with conflicting pedestrians and vehicles and the following effect with leading pedestrians. This study proposes a hybrid approach (i.e., route search and social force-based approach) for modeling of pedestrian movement at signalized crosswalks. The key influential factors, i.e., leading pedestrians, conflict with opposite pedestrians, collision avoidance with vehicles, and compromise with traffic lights, are considered. Aerial video data collected at one intersection in Beijing, China were recorded and extracted. A new calibration approach based on a genetic algorithm is proposed that enables optimization of the relative error of pedestrian trajectory in two dimensions, i.e., moving distance and angle. Model validation is conducted by comparison with the observed trajectories in five typical cases of pedestrian crossing with or without conflict between pedestrians and vehicles. The characteristics of pedestrian flow, speed, acceleration, pedestrian-vehicle conflict, and the lane formation phenomenon were compared with those from two competitive models, thus demonstrating the advantage of the proposed model.     

A generalised function for modeling bi-directional flow effects on indoor walkways in Hong Kong

This paper examines the relationships between walking speed and pedestrian flow under various bi-directional flow conditions at indoor walkways in Hong Kong. The effects of bi-directional pedestrian flows are investigated empirically with particular emphasis on their effects on walking time for different directions of flow at pedestrian walkways in Hong Kong. Flow measurements were conducted at selected indoor walkways in urban areas. A generalized walking time function that takes bi-directional flow distributions (or flow ratios) into account is proposed for these pedestrian facilities and calibrated for various flow conditions ranging from free-flow to congested-flow (at-capacity) situations. The bi-directional flow effects on free-flow walking speed, effective capacity and at-capacity walking speed are validated with observed data. It was found that the bi-directional flow ratios have significant impacts on both the at-capacity walking speeds and the maximum flow rates of the selected walkways but not on the free-flow walking speeds. The findings and study methodology provide better insight into the effects of bi-directional pedestrian flow characteristics and will assist engineers/planners in improving the design and operation of pedestrian facilities not only in Hong Kong, but also in other countries as well.     

Optimization of pedestrian phase patterns at signalized intersections: a multi‐objective approach

This paper presents a multi‐objective optimization model and its solution algorithm for optimization of pedestrian phase patterns, including the exclusive pedestrian phase (EPP) and the conventional two‐way crossing (TWC) at an intersection. The proposed model will determine the optimal pedestrian phase pattern and the corresponding signal timings at an intersection to best accommodate both vehicular traffic and pedestrian movements. The proposed model is unique with respect to the following three critical features: (1) proposing an unbiased performance index for comparison of EPP and TWC by explicitly modeling the pedestrian delay under the control of TWC and EPP; (2) developing a multi‐objective model to maximize the utilization of the available green time by vehicular traffic and pedestrian under both EPP or TWC; and (3) designing a genetic algorithm based heuristic algorithm to solve the model. Case study and sensitivity analysis results have shown the promising property of the proposed model to assist traffic practitioners, researchers, and authorities in properly selecting pedestrian phase patterns at signalized intersections. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling pedestrian queuing using micro-simulation

The system considered is a cinema ticketing booth system. A general simulation algorithm is presented as well as the system’s operating characteristics. The results of the experiment were verified by comparing them with video observation data and theoretical values. Finally, with comparative analysis of experiment data, the developed simulation model was able to replicate the situation in which pedestrians find an available booth to occupy while waiting in a queue. The model can facilitate the availability of various pedestrian flows and a range of operating times. With some efforts of computer programming, the situations where multiple booths are available were simulated to identify pedestrian movement. The developed simulation model captures important details, such as travel time, wait time, queue length and the number of waiting pedestrians with the different number of pedestrian flows and booths. The paper presents a means to designing the pedestrian operation and plan on the basis of the estimated number of people.     

Integrated optimization of location and signal timings for midblock pedestrian crosswalk

Finding the optimal location and signal timing plan is one of the most critical operational issues for a signalized midblock crosswalk on an arterial section, which is increasingly being installed in highly populated areas in developing countries such as China. This paper presents a multiobjective optimization model and an efficient solution algorithm for a one‐ or two‐stage midblock crosswalk on an arterial section. The proposed model aims to produce the optimal location and corresponding signal settings to balance the trade‐off between pedestrian delays and vehicular bandwidth when the signals of the crosswalk and adjacent intersections are coordinated. The proposed model has three distinguishing features: (i) the costs for both pedestrians and vehicles are considered in a unified framework; (ii) the location and signal settings of the midblock crosswalk are simultaneously optimized; and (iii) a multiobjective optimization approach is developed to study the effectiveness of the midblock crosswalk under conditions in which the priorities between pedestrian and vehicle flows differ. A nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II)‐based algorithm is developed to solve the model efficiently. The results of the case study showed that the proposed model would help traffic practitioners, researchers, and authorities properly locate and signalize a one‐ or two‐stage midblock pedestrian crosswalk on an arterial section. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceived cost potential field cellular automata model with an aggregated force field for pedestrian dynamics

This paper proposes a perceived potential field and an aggregated force field for navigation of pedestrians in a walking domain with poor visibility or complex geometries. While the former field used in uncrowded cells simply reflects the pedestrians’ desire to minimize their travel costs, the latter field used in crowded cells suggests much stronger interaction between pedestrians. Compared with a formulation that does not include the latter field, the proposed model displays an advantage in simulating over-crowded pedestrian flows, e.g., at the front of a bottleneck or at a left/right turn in a corridor; the simulated phenomena, including phase transitions and fundamental diagrams, agree well with the observation and studies in the literature.     

Ramp metering and freeway bottleneck capacity

This study aims to determine whether ramp meters increase the capacity of active freeway bottlenecks. The traffic flow characteristics at 27 active bottlenecks in the Twin Cities have been studied for seven weeks without ramp metering and seven weeks with ramp metering. A methodology for systematically identifying active freeway bottlenecks in a metropolitan area is proposed, which relies on two occupancy threshold values and is compared to an established diagnostic method – transformed cumulative count curves. A series of hypotheses regarding the relationships between ramp metering and the capacity of active bottlenecks are developed and tested against empirical traffic data. It is found that meters increase the bottleneck capacity by postponing and sometimes eliminating bottleneck activations, accommodating higher flows during the pre-queue transition period, and increasing queue discharge flow rates after breakdown. Results also suggest that flow drops after breakdown and the percentage flow drops at various bottlenecks follow a normal distribution. The implications of these findings on the design of efficient ramp control strategies, as well as future research directions, are discussed.     

Converting mixed pedestrian flows into equivalent commuters using standard pedestrian equivalent factors

This paper develops the concept of standard pedestrian equivalent (SPE) factors for converting a mixed pedestrian flow into an equivalent commuter flow. After a comprehensive review of passenger car equivalent (PCE) methodologies, the equal total travel time method is utilised for SPE estimation. A micro-simulation approach is employed for the formulation of the total travel time–flow relationship. Field data collected on walking speed distributions for commuters and older adults in Australia are used as model inputs. An independent samples t-test confirms the significant difference between walking speeds of commuters and older adults. For this paper, a unidirectional flow on flat walkways is initially considered and evaluated across proportions of older people, different flows and different walkway widths. The introduction of older adults significantly increases total travel time especially under congested conditions. Results of this investigation can be used for evaluation or design of pedestrian facilities experiencing similar flow conditions.     

A dynamic evacuation model for pedestrian–vehicle mixed-flow networks

In urban emergency evacuation, a potentially large number of evacuees may depend either on transit or other modes, or need to walk a long distance, to access their passenger cars. In the process of approaching the designated pick-up points or parking areas for evacuation, the massive number of pedestrians may cause tremendous burden to vehicles in the roadway network. Responsible agencies often need to contend with congestion incurred by massive vehicles emanating from parking garages, evacuation buses generated from bus stops, and the conflicts between evacuees and vehicles at intersections. Hence, an effective plan for such evacuation needs to concurrently address both the multi-modal traffic route assignment and the optimization of network signal controls for mixed traffic flows. This paper presents an integrated model to produce the optimal distribution of vehicle and pedestrian flows, and the responsive network signal plan for massive mixed pedestrian–vehicle flows within the evacuation zone. The proposed model features its effectiveness in accounting for multiple types of evacuation vehicles, the interdependent relations between pedestrian and vehicle flows via some conversion locations, and the inevitable conflicts between intersection turning vehicle and pedestrian flows. An illustrating example concerning an evacuation around the M&T stadium area has been presented, and the results indicate the promising properties of our proposed model, especially on reflecting the complex interactions between vehicle and pedestrian flows and the favorable use of high-occupancy vehicles for evacuation operations.     

A multi-commodity Lighthill–Whitham–Richards model of lane-changing traffic flow

Systematic lane changes can seriously deteriorate traffic safety and efficiency inside lane-drop, merge, and other bottleneck areas. In our previous studies (Jin, 2010a, Jin, 2010b), a phenomenological model of lane-changing traffic flow was proposed, calibrated, and analyzed based on a new concept of lane-changing intensity. In this study, we further consider weaving and non-weaving vehicles as two commodities and develop a multi-commodity, behavioral Lighthill–Whitham–Richards (LWR) model of lane-changing traffic flow. Based on a macroscopic model of lane-changing behaviors, we derive a fundamental diagram with parameters determined by car-following and lane-changing characteristics as well as road geometry and traffic composition. We further calibrate and validate fundamental diagrams corresponding to a triangular car-following fundamental diagram with NGSIM data. We introduce an entropy condition for the multi-commodity LWR model and solve the Riemann problem inside a homogeneous lane-changing area. From the Riemann solutions, we derive a flux function in terms of traffic demand and supply. Then we apply the model to study lane-changing traffic dynamics inside a lane-drop area and show that the smoothing effect of HOV lanes is consistent with observations in existing studies. The new theory of lane-changing traffic flow can be readily incorporated into Cell Transmission Model, and this study could lead to better strategies for mitigating bottleneck effects of lane-changing traffic flow.     

Platoon-based traffic flow model for estimating breakdown probability at single-lane expressway bottlenecks

This study investigates the mechanism of traffic breakdown and establishes a traffic flow model that precisely simulates the stochastic and dynamic processes of traffic flow at a bottleneck. The proposed model contains two models of stochastic processes associated with traffic flow dynamics: a model of platoon formation behind a bottleneck and a model of speed transitions within a platoon. After these proposed models are validated, they are applied to a simple one-way, one-lane expressway section containing a bottleneck, and the stochastic nature of traffic breakdown is demonstrated through theoretical exercises.     

Visco‐elastic traffic flow model

To increase our understanding of the operations of traffic system, a visco‐elastic traffic model was proposed in analogy of non‐Newtonian fluid mechanics. The traffic model is based on mass and momentum conservations, and includes a constitutive relation similar to that of linear visco‐elastic fluids. The further inclusion of the elastic effect allows us to describe a high‐order traffic model more comprehensively because the use of relaxation time indicates that vehicle drivers adjust their time headway in a reasonable and safe range. The self‐organizing behaviour is described by introducing the effects of pressure and visco‐elasticity from the point of view in fluid mechanics. Both the viscosity and elasticity can be determined by using the relaxation time and the traffic sound speed. The sound speed can be approximately represented by the road operational parameters including the free‐flow speed, the jam density, and the density of saturation if the jam pressure in traffic flows is identical to the total pressure at the flow saturation point. A linear stability analysis showed that the traffic flow should be absolutely unstable for disturbances with short spatial wavelengths. There are two critical points of regime transition in traffic flows. The first point happens at the density of saturation, and the second point occurs at a density relating on the sound speed and the fundamental diagram of traffic flows. By using a triangular form flow–density relation, a numerical test based on the new model is carried out for congested traffic flows on a loop road without ramp effect. The numerical results are discussed and compared with the result of theoretical analysis and observation data of traffic flows. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.