A delay propagation algorithm for large-scale railway traffic networks

In scheduled railway traffic networks a single delayed train may cause a domino effect of secondary delays over the entire network, which is a main concern to planners and dispatchers. This paper presents a model and an algorithm to compute the propagation of initial delays over a periodic railway timetable. The railway system is modelled as a linear system in max-plus algebra including zero-order dynamics corresponding to delay propagation within a timetable period. A timed event graph representation is exploited in an effective graph algorithm that computes the propagation of train delays using a bucket implementation to store the propagated delays. The behaviour of the delay propagation and the convergence of the algorithm is analysed depending on timetable properties such as realisability and stability. Different types of delays and delay behaviour are discussed, including primary and secondary delays, structural delays, periodic delay regimes, and delay explosion. A decomposition method based on linearity is introduced to deal with structural and initial delays separately. The algorithm can be applied to large-scale scheduled railway traffic networks in real-time applications such as interactive timetable stability analysis and decision support systems to assist train dispatchers.     

Bus arrival time prediction at bus stop with multiple routes

Provision of accurate bus arrival information is vital to passengers for reducing their anxieties and waiting times at bus stop. This paper proposes models to predict bus arrival times at the same bus stop but with different routes. In the proposed models, bus running times of multiple routes are used for predicting the bus arrival time of each of these bus routes. Several methods, which include support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), k nearest neighbours algorithm (k-NN) and linear regression (LR), are adopted for the bus arrival time prediction. Observation surveys are conducted to collect bus running and arrival time data for validation of the proposed models. The results show that the proposed models are more accurate than the models based on the bus running times of single route. Moreover, it is found that the SVM model performs the best among the four proposed models for predicting the bus arrival times at bus stop with multiple routes.     

Analyzing high speed rail passengers’ train choices based on new online booking data in China

This study explores two nonparametric machine learning methods, namely support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), for understanding and predicting high-speed rail (HSR) travelers’ choices of ticket purchase timings, train types, and travel classes, using ticket sales data. In the train choice literature, discrete choice analysis is the predominant approach and many variants of logit models have been developed. Alternatively, emerging travel choice studies adopt non-utility-based methods, especially nonparametric machine learning methods including SVR and ANN, because (1) those methods do not rely on assumptions on the relations between choices and explanatory variables or any prior knowledge of the underlying relations; (2) they have superb capabilities of iteratively identifying patterns and extracting rules from data. This paper thus contributes to the HSR train choice literature by applying and comparing SVR and ANN with a real-world case study of the Shanghai-Beijing HSR market in China. A new normalized metric capturing both the load factor and the booking lead time is proposed as the target variable and several train service attributes, such as day of week, departure time, travel time, fare, are identified as input variables. Computational results demonstrate that both SVR and ANN can predict the train choice behavior with high accuracy, outperforming the linear regression approach. Potential applications of this study, such as rail pricing reform, have also been identified.     

Balancing energy consumption and risk of delay in high speed trains: A three-objective real-time eco-driving algorithm with fuzzy parameters

Eco-driving is an energy efficient traffic operation measure that may lead to important energy savings in high speed railway lines. When a delay arises in real time, it is necessary to recalculate an optimal driving that must be energy efficient and computationally efficient.In addition, it is important that the algorithm includes the existing uncertainty associated with the manual execution of the driving parameters and with the possible future traffic disturbances that could lead to new delays.This paper proposes a new algorithm to be executed in real time, which models the uncertainty in manual driving by means of fuzzy numbers. It is a multi-objective optimization algorithm that includes the classical objectives in literature, running time and energy consumption, and as well a newly defined objective, the risk of delay in arrival. The risk of delay in arrival measure is based on the evolution of the time margin of the train up to destination.The proposed approach is a dynamic algorithm designed to improve the computational time. The optimal Pareto front is continuously tracked during the train travel, and a new set of driving commands is selected and presented to the driver when a delay is detected.The algorithm evaluates the 3 objectives of each solution using a detailed simulator of high speed trains to ensure that solutions are realistic, accurate and applicable by the driver. The use of this algorithm provides energy savings and, in addition, it permits railway operators to balance energy consumption and risk of delays in arrival. This way, the energy performance of the system is improved without degrading the quality of the service.     

Automated real-time railway traffic control: an experimental analysis of reliability,resilience and robustness

Railway transportation provides sustainable, fast and safe transport. Its attractiveness is linked to a broad concept of service reliability: the capability to adhere to a timetable in the presence of delays perturbing traffic. To counter these phenomena, real-time rescheduling can be used, changing train orders and times, according to rules of thumb, or mathematical optimization models, minimizing delays or maximizing punctuality. In the literature, different indices of robustness, reliability and resilience are defined for railway traffic. We review and evaluate these indices applied to railway traffic control, comparing optimal rescheduling approaches such as Open Loop and Closed Loop control, to a typical First-Come-First-Served dispatching rule, and following the timetable (no-action). This experimental analysis clarifies the benefits of automated traffic control for infrastructure managers, railway operators and passengers. The timetable order, normally used in assessing a-priori reliability, systematically overestimates unreliability of operations that can be reduced by real-time control.     

Closing the loop in real-time railway control: Framework design and impacts on operations

Railway traffic is heavily affected by disturbances and/or disruptions, which are often cause of delays and low performance of train services. The impact and the propagation of such delays can be mitigated by relying on automatic tools for rescheduling traffic in real-time. These tools predict future track conflict based on current train information and provide suitable control measures (e.g. reordering, retiming and/or rerouting) by using advanced mathematical models. A growing literature is available on these tools, but their effects on real operations are blurry and not yet well known, due to the very scarce implementation of such systems in practice.In this paper we widen the knowledge on how automatic real-time rescheduling tools can influence train performance when interfaced with railway operations. To this purpose we build up a novel traffic control framework that couples the state-of-the art automatic rescheduling tool ROMA, with the realistic railway traffic simulation environment EGTRAIN, used as a surrogate of the real field. At regular times ROMA is fed with current traffic information measured from the field (i.e. EGTRAIN) in order to predict possible conflicts and compute (sub) optimal control measures that minimize the max consecutive delay on the network. We test the impact of the traffic control framework based on different types of interaction (i.e. open loop, multiple open loop, closed loop) between the rescheduling tool and the simulation environment as well as different combinations of parameter values (such as the rescheduling interval and prediction horizon). The influence of different traffic prediction models (assuming e.g. aggressive versus conservative driving behaviour) is also investigated together with the effects on traffic due to control delays of the dispatcher in implementing the control measures computed by the rescheduling tool.Results obtained for the Dutch railway corridor Utrecht–Den Bosch show that a closed loop interaction outperforms both the multiple open loop and the open loop approaches, especially with large control delays and limited information on train entrance delays and dwell times. A slow rescheduling frequency and a large prediction horizon improve the quality of the control measure. A limited control delay and a conservative prediction of train speed help filtering out uncertain traffic dynamics thereby increasing the effectiveness of the implemented measures.     

An improved car‐following model for railway traffic

In this paper, we propose an improved traffic model for simulating train movement in railway traffic. The proposed model is based on optimal velocity car‐following model. In order to test the proposed model, we use it to simulate the train movement with fixed‐block system. In simulations, we analyze and discuss the space–time diagram of railway traffic flow and the trajectories of train movement. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can be successfully used for simulating the train movement in railway traffic. From the space–time diagram, we find some complex phenomena of train flow, which are observed in real railway traffic, such as train delays. By analyzing the trajectories of train movement, some dynamic characteristics of trains can be reproduced. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using automatic passenger counter data in bus arrival time prediction

Artificial neural networks have been used in a variety of prediction models because of their flexibility in modeling complicated systems. Using the automatic passenger counter data collected by New Jersey Transit, a model based on a neural network was developed to predict bus arrival times. Test runs showed that the predicted travel times generated by the models are reasonably close to the actual arrival times.     

Scheduling heterogeneous train traffic on double tracks with efficient dispatching rules

To further improve the utilization rate of railway tracks and reduce train delays, this paper focuses on developing a high-efficiency train routing and timetabling approach for double-track railway corridors in condition that trains are allowable to travel on reverse direction tracks. We first design an improved switchable policy which is rooted in the approaches by Mu and Dessouky (2013), with the analysis of possible delays caused by different path choices. Then, three novel integrated train routing and timetabling approaches are proposed on the basis of a discrete event model and different dispatching rules, including no switchable policy (No-SP), Mu and Dessouky (2013)’s switchable policy (Original-SP) and improved switchable policy (Improved-SP). To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approaches, the heterogeneous trains on Beijing–Shanghai high speed railway are scheduled by aforementioned approaches. The case studies indicate that in comparison to No-SP and Original-SP approaches, respectively, the Improved-SP approach can reduce the total delay of trains up to 44.44% and 73.53% within a short computational time. Moreover, all of the performance criteria of the Improved-SP approach are usually better than those of other two approaches.     

Distributed model predictive control for railway traffic management

Every day small delays occur in almost all railway networks. Such small delays are often called “disturbances” in literature. In order to deal with disturbances dispatchers reschedule and reroute trains, or break connections. We call this the railway management problem. In this paper we describe how the railway management problem can be solved using centralized model predictive control (MPC) and we propose several distributed model predictive control (DMPC) methods to solve the railway management problem for entire (national) railway networks. Furthermore, we propose an optimization method to determine a good partitioning of the network in an arbitrary number of sub-networks that is used for the DMPC methods. The DMPC methods are extensively tested in a case study using a model of the Dutch railway network and the trains of the Nederlandse Spoorwegen. From the case study it is clear that the DMPC methods can solve the railway traffic management problem, with the same reduction in delays, much faster than the centralized MPC method.     

Strategic assessment of capacity consumption in railway networks: Framework and model

In this paper, we develop a new framework for strategic planning purposes to calculate railway infrastructure occupation and capacity consumption in networks, independent of a timetable. Furthermore, a model implementing the framework is presented. In this model different train sequences are generated and assessed to obtain timetable independence. A stochastic simulation of delays is used to obtain the capacity consumption. The model is tested on a case network where four different infrastructure scenarios are considered. Both infrastructure occupation and capacity consumption results are obtained efficiently with little input. The case illustrates the model’s ability to quantify the capacity gain from infrastructure scenario to infrastructure scenario which can be used to increase the number of trains or improve the robustness of the system.     

A Heuristic Algorithm for the Allocation of Airport Runway System Capacity

Abstract

This paper develops a heuristic algorithm for the allocation of airport runway capacity to minimise the cost of arrival and departure aircraft/flight delays. The algorithm is developed as a potential alternative to optimisation models based on linear and integer programming. The algorithm is based on heuristic (‘greedy’) criteria that closely reflect the ‘rules of thumb’ used by air traffic controllers. Using inputs such as arrival and departure demand, airport runway system capacity envelopes and cost of aircraft/flight delays, the main output minimises the cost of arrival and departure delays as well as the corresponding interdependent airport runway system arrival and departure capacity allocation. The algorithm is applied to traffic scenarios at three busy US airports. The results are used to validate the performance of the proposed heuristic algorithm against results from selected benchmarking optimisation models.     

Prediction of ground vibration amplitudes due to urban railway traffic using quantitative and qualitative field data

The growth of railway transport in urban areas has lead to an increase in ground vibrations enhancing their negative environmental impact. Therefore is mandatory to predict and control ground vibrations. This work presents a methodology for the determination of prediction models of ground vibration amplitudes due to railway train circulation in urban environments. Using quantitative predictors (train speed and distance) and qualitative predictors (railway track type, dominant geology and building type), being the use of the latter predictors justified by the fact that, most frequently, quantitative parameters are very difficult to obtain in the urban environment due to their characterization. Thus, a detailed statistical study based on the proposal and validation of multiple linear regression models, is successfully applied in order to predict vibration amplitudes produced by railway train circulation, in the considered domain, as function of quantitative and qualitative predictors, easily obtained in field work. A multiple linear regression model for ground vibration prediction due to underground railway traffic has been presented for the Lisbon area.     

Recent success stories on integrated optimization of railway systems

Planning and operating railway transportation systems is an extremely hard task due to the combinatorial complexity of the underlying discrete optimization problems, the technical intricacies, and the immense size of the problem instances. Because of that, however, mathematical models and optimization techniques can result in large gains for both railway customers and operators, e.g., in terms of cost reductions or service quality improvements. In the last years a large and growing group of researchers in the OR community have devoted their attention to this domain developing mathematical models and optimization approaches to tackle many of the relevant problems in the railway planning process. However, there is still a gap to bridge between theory and practice (e.g. Cacchiani et al., 2014; Borndörfer et al., 2010), with a few notable exceptions. In this paper we address three individual success stories, namely, long-term freight train routing (part I), mid-term rolling stock rotation planning (part II), and real-time train dispatching (part III). In each case, we describe real-life, successful implementations. We will discuss the individual problem setting, survey the optimization literature, and focus on particular aspects addressed by the mathematical models. We demonstrate on concrete applications how mathematical optimization can support railway planning and operations. This gives proof that mathematical optimization can support the planning of railway resources. Thus, mathematical models and optimization can lead to a greater efficiency of railway operations and will serve as a powerful and innovative tool to meet recent challenges of the railway industry.     

基于指定到达追踪间隔的高铁车站接车进路长度研究

确定合理的高铁车站接车进路长度对压缩到达追踪间隔时间有重要意义。本文首先通过构建满足到达追踪间隔时间的高铁车站接车进路长度计算模型,提出了接车进路长度的主要影响因素为由线路限制速度、站前坡坡度、制动力使用系数三因素(简称三因素)所确定的车载设备监控制动距离内列车运行时间。然后,通过对常见的线路限制速度、站前坡坡度、制动力使用系数取值下的车载设备监控制动距离内列车运行时间进行牵引计算仿真,并运用三因素方差分析法分析了三因素的影响显著度,得到了线路限制速度、站前坡坡度对高铁车站接车进路长度影响显著的结论。最后,基于高铁车站接车进路长度计算模型,得到了一组指定到达追踪间隔下的高铁车站接车进路长度表,为高铁车站设计提供思路。     

Stochastic prediction of train delays in real-time using Bayesian networks

In this paper we present a stochastic model for predicting the propagation of train delays based on Bayesian networks. This method can efficiently represent and compute the complex stochastic inference between random variables. Moreover, it allows updating the probability distributions and reducing the uncertainty of future train delays in real time under the assumption that more information continuously becomes available from the monitoring system. The dynamics of a train delay over time and space is presented as a stochastic process that describes the evolution of the time-dependent random variable. This approach is further extended by modelling the interdependence between trains that share the same infrastructure or have a scheduled passenger transfer. The model is applied on a set of historical traffic realisation data from the part of a busy corridor in Sweden. We present the results and analyse the accuracy of predictions as well as the evolution of probability distributions of event delays over time. The presented method is important for making better predictions for train traffic, that are not only based on static, offline collected data, but are able to positively include the dynamic characteristics of the continuously changing delays.     

Hybrid model for prediction of bus arrival times at next station

Effective prediction of bus arrival times is important to advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Here a hybrid model, based on support vector machine (SVM) and Kalman filtering technique, is presented to predict bus arrival times. In the model, the SVM model predicts the baseline travel times on the basic of historical trips occurring data at given time‐of‐day, weather conditions, route segment, the travel times on the current segment, and the latest travel times on the predicted segment; the Kalman filtering‐based dynamic algorithm uses the latest bus arrival information, together with estimated baseline travel times, to predict arrival times at the next point. The predicted bus arrival times are examined by data of bus no. 7 in a satellite town of Dalian in China. Results show that the hybrid model proposed in this paper is feasible and applicable in bus arrival time forecasting area, and generally provides better performance than artificial neural network (ANN)–based methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring passenger anxiety associated with train travel

Although people are often encouraged to use public transportation, the riding experience is not always comfortable. This study uses service items to measure passenger anxieties by applying a conceptual model based on the railway passenger service chain perspective. Passenger anxieties associated with train travel are measured using a modern psychometric method, the Rasch model. This study surveys 412 train passengers. Analytical results indicate that the following service items cause passenger anxiety during trains travel: crowding, delays, accessibility to a railway station, searching for the right train on a platform, and transferring trains. Empirical results obtained using the Rasch approach can be used to derive an effective strategy to reduce train passenger anxiety. This empirical study also demonstrates that anxiety differs based on passenger sex, age, riding frequency, and trip type. This information will also prove useful for transportation planners and policy-makers when considering the special travel needs of certain groups to create a user-friendly railway travel environment that promotes public use.     

Passenger Perspectives in Railway Timetabling: A Literature Review

When looking at railway planning, a discrepancy exists between planners who focus on the train operations and publish fixed railway schedules, and passengers who look not only at the schedules but also at the entirety of their trip, from access to waiting to on-board travel and egress. Looking into this discrepancy is essential, as assessing railway performances by merely measuring train punctuality would provide an unfair picture of the level of service experienced by passengers. Firstly, passengers’ delays are often significantly larger than the train delays responsible for the passengers to be late. Secondly, trains’ punctuality is often strictly related to too tight schedules that in turn might translate into knock-on delays for longer dwelling times at stations, trip delays for increased risk of missing transfer connections, and uncertain assessment of the level of service experienced, especially with fluctuating passenger demand. A key aspect is the robustness of railway timetables. Empirical evidence indicates that passengers give more importance to travel time certainty than travel time reductions, as passengers associate an inherent disutility with travel time uncertainty. This disutility may be broadly interpreted as an anxiety cost for the need for having contingency plans in case of disruptions, and may be looked at as the motivator for the need for delay-robust railway timetables. Interestingly, passenger-oriented optimisation studies considering robustness in railway planning typically limit their emphasis on passengers to the consideration of transfer maintenance. Clearly, passengers’ travel behaviour is far more complex and multi-faceted and thus several other aspects should be considered, as becoming more and more evident from passenger surveys. The current literature review starts by looking at the parameters that railway optimisation/planning studies are focused on and the key performance indicators that impact railway planning. The attention then turns to the parameters influencing passengers’ perceptions and travel experiences. Finally, the review proposes guidelines on how to reduce the gap between the operators’ railway planning and performance measurement on the one hand and the passengers’ perception of the railway performance on the other hand. Thereby, the conclusions create a foundation for a more passenger-oriented railway timetabling ensuring that passengers are provided with the best service possible with the resources available.     

Train scheduling simulation that minimises operational conflicts due to service constraints

This paper presents an attempt made to facilitate re‐scheduling of trains to minimize operational delays and accommodate uniform headways for off peak sub urban services subject to resource constraints such as locomotive availability, poor track conditions and stations without siding facilities. The paper describes the computer simulation model designed to optimize train schedules on single‐track rail lines. Using this simulation program it is possible to plan and optimize timetables for railway networks with train runs within short time periods for both single track and double track conditions. The paper describes the capabilities of presenting the results of the simulation runs. These include the time‐distance graph, the network with train movements, dialog boxes with information about selected trains. The programme is capable of changing the starting point, departure time, train destinations and adding or deleting a stop etc. from the user interface. Four objects of array variables are used in the simulation process to keep train and station data. Two object arrays are used for the train movements in up and down directions. The stations' data are stored in the other two object arrays. One of these arrays of stations contains all the stations of the line while the other one contains only the stations with siding facilities. A case study that covers a 61 km long single‐track line with 14 stations is presented to highlight the model capabilities.