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1.
Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used elsewhere as a useful tool by road Engineers and Planners. There is however no study on the prediction of road traffic crashes on rural highways in Ghana. The main objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for road traffic crashes occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The model was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural highways in the Region over the three (3) year period 2005–2007. Data was collected from 76 rural highway sections and each section varied between 0.8 km and 6.7 km. Data collected for each section comprised injury crash data, traffic flow and speed data, and roadway characteristics and road geometry data. The Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative Binomial (NB) error structure was used to estimate the model parameters. Two types of models, the ‘core’ model which included key exposure variables only and the ‘full’ model which included a wider range of variables were developed. The results show that traffic flow, highway segment length, junction density, terrain type and presence of a village settlement within road segments were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables (p < 0.05) for crash involvement. Adding one junction to a 1 km section of road segment was found to increase injury crashes by 32.0% and sections which had a village settlement within them were found to increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with segments with no settlements. The model explained 61.2% of the systematic variation in the data. Road and Traffic Engineers and Planners can apply the crash prediction model as a tool in safety improvement works and in the design of safer roads. It is recommended that to improve safety, highways should be designed to by-pass village settlements and that the number of junctions on a highway should be limited to carefully designed ones.  相似文献   

2.
This paper presents an evaluation of risk factors for highway crashes under mixed traffic conditions. The basis of selecting study sites was abutting land use, roadway, and traffic characteristics. Accordingly, the study selected thirteen segments on the existing highway network in the state of West Bengal of India, covering a wide spectrum of such road attributes. A systematic investigation based on site-specific accident data to capture the highway sections' safety features revealed that the crash rate has steadily increased for years with traffic regardless of roadway category and conditions. A number of risk factors that affect road accidents were identified; they are mid-block access, pavement and shoulder conditions, vehicle involvement, time of day, and road configuration, i.e., two and multi-lane. The empirical observation indicates that the crash rate is relatively lower on multi-lane highways; however, the severity of any crash on such a road is relatively high. Notably, the crash frequencies on such roads are less during daylight hours due to the lane-based unidirectional traffic movement. This is quite the opposite during nighttime when drivers exhibit an inability to meet traffic contingencies, thereby increasing crash risk. The majority of crashes on two-lane highways are, on the other hand, due to unsafe driving manoeuvers. The study also observed that frequent mid-block accesses and poor shoulder conditions reduce scopes to rectify driving errors and increase crash risk as a consequence. The paper subsequently suggests proactive approaches to identify safety deficits at the time of planning and designing.  相似文献   

3.
为分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素,构建基于负二项分布的事故分析模型,探究事故数与交通特性、公路线形及路面性能间关系.鉴于传统固定参数模型难以刻画各因素对事故风险影响的异质性,引入了随机参数建模方法.结果表明:相比于固定参数负二项模型,构建的随机参数负二项模型有更好的拟合优度,且能更合理地反映各因素对事故的作用效果;将随...  相似文献   

4.
基于道路交通事故数据探究事故影响因素对于认识事故的影响因素、提高交通安全水平具有重要意义。利用近年来国内典型较严重道路交通事故数据,应用泊松模型和负二项模型,以区分事故形态的方式建立追尾事故、侧碰事故及撞行人事故的事故死亡率的道路影响因素分析模型。这些模型以三类事故中涉及人员的死亡数为因变量,以一系列道路因素为自变量,将事故涉及人数作为偏移变量。模型的具体形式以过离散系数及赤池信息量准则(AIC)为依据进行选择。结果显示,追尾事故的死亡率与道路等级、路侧防护设施显著相关;侧碰事故则与天气、路表情况、路口路段位置、坡度以及道路结构有关;撞行人事故与路表情况、道路等级、车道数、平曲线半径有关。本文拓展了事故严重性研究的深度,其研究成果对于更好地利用重特大事故的深入调查数据有现实意义,也可为事故分析及道路设计等提供借鉴。   相似文献   

5.
A roadway departure (RwD) crash is defined as a crash that occurs after a vehicle crosses an edge line or a center line, or otherwise leaves the designated travel path. RwD crashes account for approximately 50% of all traffic fatalities in the U.S. Additionally, crashes related to roadside fixed objects such as trees, utility poles, or other poles (TUOP) make up 12–15% of all fatal RwD crashes in the U.S. Data spanning over seven years (2010–2016) shows that TUOP crashes account for approximately 22% of all fatal crashes in Louisiana, which is significantly higher than the national statistic. This study aims to determine the effect of crash, geometric, environmental, and vehicle characteristics on TUOP crashes by applying the fast and frugal tree (FFT) heuristics algorithm to Louisiana crash data. FFT identifies five major cues or variable threshold attributes that contribute significantly to predicting TUOP crashes. These cues include posted speed limit, primary contributing factor, highway type, weather, and locality type. The balanced accuracy is around 56% for both training and test data. The current model shows higher accuracies compared to machine learning models (e.g., support vector machine, CART). The present findings emphasize the importance of a comprehensive understanding of factors that influence TUOP crashes. The insights from this study can help data-driven decision making at both planning and operation levels.  相似文献   

6.
The purpose of the study was to compare the prediction power of a simplified non-canonical Poisson crash-prediction model to other model types. The model, fitted to serious and fatal crash data from 86 two-lane low-volume rural highway segments, showed a good fit, which was not significantly different from that of a negative binomial model. The application of the present model uses the linear form of the non-canonical Poisson model. Hence the simplification of the model versus other models results from the finding that the expected number of crashes per 1 km is directly proportional to the daily volume, unlike logarithmic functions in other models. In the non-canonical model, it is necessary to estimate only one parameter, whereas estimations of more parameters are needed in the negative binomial model.  相似文献   

7.
This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.  相似文献   

8.
In spite of enormous improvements in vehicle safety, roadway design, and operations, there is still an excessive amount of traffic crashes resulting in injuries and major productivity losses. Despite the many studies on factors of crash frequency and injury severity, there is still further research to be conducted. Tree and utility pole/other pole related (TUOP) crashes present approximately 12 to 15% of all roadway departure (RwD) fatal crashes in the U.S. The count of TUOP crashes comprise nearly 22% of all fatal crashes in Louisiana. From 2010 to 2016, there were 55,857 TUOP crashes reported in Louisiana. Individually examining each of these crash reports is not a realistic option to investigate crash factors. Therefore, this study employed text mining and interpretable machine learning (IML) techniques to analyze all TUOP crashes (with available crash narratives) that occurred in Louisiana from 2010 to 2016. This study has two major goals: 1) to develop a framework for applying machine learning models to classify injury levels from unstructured textual content, and 2) to apply an IML framework that provides probability measures of keywords and their association with the injury classification. The present study employed three machine learning algorithms in the classification of injury levels based on the crash narrative data. Of the used modeling techniques, the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model shows better performance, with accuracy ranging from 0.70 to 24% for the training data and from 0.30% to 16% for the test data.  相似文献   

9.
The focus of this paper is to examine the influence of network, land use, and demographic characteristics on the number of bicycle-vehicle crashes, and to develop area-level bicycle-vehicle crash estimation models (safety performance functions) for urban roads. Mecklenburg County in the State of North Carolina was considered as the study area. The reported bicycle-vehicle crash data, from 2010 to 2015, along with the network, land use, and demographic characteristics data were obtained from the local agencies. Data within a one-mile buffer of 119 selected locations was then captured. Data for 99 selected locations were used for the modeling purpose, while data for the remaining 20 selected locations were used for validating the models. Six alternate models were developed, considering various combinations of explanatory variables that are not correlated with each other. As the bicycle-vehicle crash dataset used in this research was observed to be over-dispersed (variance greater than the mean), Negative Binomial log-link distribution-based models were developed. The validation dataset was used to compare the estimated number of bicycle-vehicle crashes from each model with the actual number of bicycle-vehicle crashes. The results obtained from the analysis and modeling suggest that bicyclists are more often involved in crashes while traveling on segments with no bicycle lane, the traffic light, 45 mph as the speed limit, and in commercial activity, research activity, institutional, multi-family residential (densely populated), and heavy industrial areas. The computed Moran's Index values indicate weak to no spatial correlation between the residuals of each model. However, the residuals seem to depend on the area type and the number of bicycle-vehicle crashes.  相似文献   

10.
Road deaths, injuries and property damage place a huge burden on the economy of most nations. Wyoming has a high crash rate on mountain passes. The crash rates observed in the state is as a result of many factors mainly related to the challenging mountainous terrain in the state, which places extra burden on drivers in terms of requiring higher levels of alertness and driving skill. This study was conducted to investigate factors leading to crashes on Wyoming downgrades, with a focus on geometric variables. Traditionally, crash frequency analysis is conducted using count models such as Poisson or negative binomial models. However, factors that affect crash frequency are known to vary across observations. The use of a methodology that fails to take into account heterogeneity in observed and unobserved effects relating to roadway characteristics can lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. Inferences made from such parameter estimates may be misleading. This study employed the random-parameters negative binomial regression models to evaluate the impact of geometric variables on crash frequency. Five separate models were estimated for total, fatal/injury, property damage only (PDO), truck, and non-truck crash frequencies. Several geometric and traffic variables were found to influence the frequency of crashes on downgrades. These included segment length, vertical grade, shoulder width, lane width, presence of downgrade warning sign, vertical curve length, presence of a passing lane, percentage of trucks, number of lanes and AADT. The results suggest that segment length, lane width, presence of a passing lane, presence of a downgrade warning sign, vertical grade, and percentage of trucks are best modeled as random parameters. The findings of this study will provide transportation agencies with a better understanding of the impact of geometric variables on downgrade crashes.  相似文献   

11.
There is a growing interest in the application of the machine learning techniques in predicting the motorcycle crash severity. This is partly due to a progress in autonomous vehicles technology, and machine learning technique, which as a main component of autonomous vehicle could be implemented for traffic safety enhancement. Wyoming's motorcycle crash fatalities constitute a concern since the count of riders being killed in motorcycle crashes in 2014 was 11% of the total road fatalities in the state. The first step of crash reduction could be achieved through identification of contributory factors to crashes. This could be accomplished by using a right model with high accuracy in predicting crashes. Thus, this study adopted random forest, support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines and binary logistic regression techniques to predict the injury severity outcomes of motorcycle crashes. Even though researchers applied all the aforementioned techniques to model motorcycle injury severities, a comparative analysis to assess the predictive power of such modeling frameworks is limited. Hence, this study contributes to the road safety literature by comparing the performance of the discussed techniques. In this study, Wyoming's motorcycle crash injury severities are modeled as functions of the characteristics that give rise to crashes. Before conducting any analyses, feature reduction was used to identify a best number of predictors to be included in the model. Also to have an unbiased estimation of the performance of different machine learning techniques, 5-fold cross-validation was used for model performance evaluation. Two measure, Area under the curve (AUC), and confusion matrix were used to compare different models' performance. The machine learning results indicate that random forest model outperformed the other models with the least misclassification and higher AUC. It was also revealed that a dichotomous response variable, with fatality and incapacitation injury in one category, along with all other categories in another group would result in a lower misclassification rate than a polychotomous response variable. This might result from the nature of motorcycle crashes, lacking a protection compared with passenger cars, preventing machine learning technique to get trained properly. Moreover, the most important variables identified by the random forest model are those related to the operating speed, resentful other party, traffic volume, truck traffic volume, riding under the influence, horizontal curvature, wide roadway with more than two lanes and rider's age.  相似文献   

12.
Teenagers have been emphasized as a critical driver population class because of their overrepresentation in fatal and injury crashes. The conventional parametric approaches rest on few predefined assumptions, which might not always be valid considering the complicated nature of teen drivers' crash characteristics that are reflected by multidimensional crash datasets. Also, individual attributes may be more speculative when combined with other factors. This research employed joint correspondence analysis (JCA) and association rule mining (ARM) to investigate the fatal and injury crash patterns of at-fault teen drivers (aged 15 to 19 years) in Louisiana. The unsupervised learning algorithms can explore meaningful associations among crash categories without restricting the nature of variables. The analyses discover intriguing associations to understand the potential causes and effects of crashes. For example, alcohol impairment results in fatal crashes with passengers, daytimes severe collisions occur to unrestrained drivers who have exceeded the posted speed limits, and adverse weather conditions are associated with moderate injury crashes. The findings also reveal how the behavior patterns connected with teen driver crashes, such as distracted driving in the morning hours, alcohol intoxication or using cellphone in pickup trucks, and so on. The research results can lead to effectively targeted teen driver education programs to mitigate risky driving maneuvers. Also, prioritizing crash attributes of key interconnections can help to develop practical safety countermeasures. Strategy that covers multiple interventions could be more effective in curtailing teenagers' crash risk.  相似文献   

13.
Bus right hook (BRH) crashes at intersections are one of the most common types of crashes for bus carriers, which accounted for as high as 16% of fatal and injury crashes involving large buses at intersections in Taiwan. A BRH crash occurs when a bus and another vehicle traveling in the same direction head into an intersection, but the bus driver makes a right turn across the path of the through-moving vehicle, and both vehicles collide. This study responds to the research needs to identity factors associated with BRH crashes by utilizing in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) data. A four step analysis procedure was developed, including (1) video data coding, (2) crash sequence analysis to identify crash contributing factors, (3) a case-control study to examine the relationship between the crash contributing factors and crash occurrence, and (4) modeling crash risk in terms of the crash contributing factors to better understand the crash generating process. This study first identified the existence of driver unattended time as the time between when the driver last checked the right back mirror to finally steering for a right turn, indicating the time period wherein the driver did not track the through vehicle on the right side using the right back mirror. It was found that BRH crashes could be attributed to the concurrence of unattended time and the speed difference between the bus and through vehicle. Several recommendations are discussed based on the results to further develop countermeasures to reduce this type of crash.  相似文献   

14.
Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users; thus, understanding the primary factors that lead to pedestrian crashes is a chief concern in road safety. However, owing to the limitations of crash data in developing countries, only a few studies have evaluated the comprehensive characteristics of pedestrian crashes, specifically on different road types. This study attempted to develop pedestrian crash frequency and severity models on national roads by using the road characteristics and built environment parameters, based on the road crash data (2016–2018) that involved pedestrians in Metro Manila, Philippines. Remarkable findings included primary roads, presence of footbridges, road sections with bad surface conditions, and increased fractions of commercial, residential, and industrial roads, which exhibited a greater likelihood of pedestrian crashes. Crashes involving elderly pedestrians, heavier vehicles, late-night hours, fair surface conditions, and open spaces were associated with increased likelihoods of fatal outcomes. Essentially, this study provides a macroscopic perspective in understanding the factors associated with the severity and frequency of pedestrian crashes, and it would aid the authorities in identifying proper countermeasures.  相似文献   

15.
高速公路隧道构造特殊且通行环境复杂,因而通常事故多发。为探究高速公路隧道路段与开放路段事故影响因素和严重程度致因机理的差异,采集沪昆高速邵怀段2011—2016年期间1 537起事故为研究样本;以事故发生路段为响应变量构建逻辑回归模型,解释各种风险因素对事故发生路段倾向性的影响差异;分别针对隧道路段与开放路段建立模型研究事故伤害严重程度的影响因素。建立二元Logit回归模型分析事故的发生倾向性和2类路段的事故严重程度的影响因素;采用随机参数Logit模型以反映异质性条件对参数的影响。统计表明:与疲劳驾驶、未保持安全距离相关的事故发生在隧道路段的概率更高,其事故发生概率分别是开放路段的2.373和2.482倍;与隧道路段事故严重程度正相关的因素包括下坡(坡度2%以上)、夏季和超速行驶,其中下坡(坡度2%以上)段的严重事故发生的概率为上坡(坡度2%以上)的3.397倍,夏季的严重事故发生概率为秋季的3.951倍,超速行驶相关的严重事故发生概率为其他不当驾驶行为的4.242倍;与开放路段事故严重程度正相关的因素包括超速行驶和疲劳驾驶,其中超速行驶相关的严重事故概率是其他不当驾驶行为的2.713倍,疲劳驾驶相关的严重事故概率是其他不当驾驶行为的4.802倍。研究表明,山区高速公路隧道路段与开放路段的事故发生概率及其严重程度的影响因素存在一定的差异性,研究结论可为山区高速公路差异管理方案制定提供依据。   相似文献   

16.
Intersection safety continues to be a crucial issue throughout the United States. In 2016, 27% of the 37,461 traffic fatalities on U.S. roadways occurred at or near intersections. Nearly 70% of intersection-related fatalities occurred at unsignalized intersections. At such intersections, vehicles stopping or slowing to turn create speed differentials between vehicles traveling in the same direction. This is particularly problematic on two-lane highways. Research was performed to analyze safety performance for intersections on rural, two-lane roadways, with stop control on the minor roadway. Roadway, traffic, and crash data were collected from 4148 stop-controlled intersections of all 64 Parishes (counties) statewide in Louisiana, for the period of 2013 to 2017. Four count approaches, Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) were used to model the number of intersection crashes for different severity levels. The results indicate that ZIP models provide a better fit than all other models. In addition to traffic volume, larger curve radii of major and minor roads and wider lane widths of major roads led to significantly smaller crash occurrences. However, higher speed limits of major roads led to significantly greater crash occurrences. Four-leg stop-controlled intersections have 35% greater total crashes, 49% greater fatal and injury crashes, and 25% greater property damage only (PDO) crashes, relative to three-leg intersections.  相似文献   

17.
为了探究行人事故的发生机理,分析影响行人交通安全的显著因素,收集上海市中心城区263个交通分析小区(TAZ)的行人事故、道路、人口及土地利用数据,并开展行人宏观安全研究。考虑到TAZ之间存在的空间相关性,建立考虑空间相关性的贝叶斯负二项条件自回归模型,在条件自回归模型中对比分析了5种不同的空间权重矩阵,包括0~1邻接矩阵、边界长度矩阵、分析单元中心距离倒数矩阵、事故空间中心距离倒数矩阵这4种既有矩阵,以及首次引入的宏观安全建模中的分析单元中心距离多阶矩阵。结果表明:分析单元中心距离多阶矩阵的模型拟合效果和事故预测准确度均显著优于既有的4种空间权重矩阵,证明了在宏观安全建模过程中考虑研究对象交通特征(居民步行平均出行距离等)的必要性;人口数量、主干道长度、次干道长度、路网密度等因素均与行人事故呈现显著正相关,平均交叉口间距、三路交叉口比例等因素与行人事故呈显著负相关;相较于高等、低等土地利用强度,中等土地利用强度对行人事故的影响最大。  相似文献   

18.
为挖掘多模式失效概率与长下坡路段重型卡车事故之间的关系,建立了重型卡车在长下坡路段的多模式失效概率与车辆事故之间的关系模型。并针对重型卡车在长下坡路段可能的失效模式,如侧滑、侧翻、视距不足、制动失效,在此基础上建立了多模式失效概率预测模型;通过蒙特卡罗法模拟并求解单模式失效的概率,宽界限法求解失效系统的多模式失效概率;将多模式失效概率作为解释变量与其他道路因素结合,分别建立泊松模型、随机效应泊松模型、随机参数泊松模型,将多模式失效概率与重型卡车事故建立函数关系;对比3种模型的拟合优度指标,优选出最优事故预测模型,用来挖掘重型卡车事故与多模式失效概率之间的关系。以华盛顿州71段长下坡10年的重型卡车事故数据及道路设计数据进行方法验证。结果表明:随机参数泊松模型与随机效应泊松模型的拟合优度相差较小,二者均优于泊松模型;当考虑多模式失效概率时,平曲线半径、纵坡坡度、超高对重型卡车事故的影响均不显著,即三者的影响被削弱,尤其是平曲线半径和超高,多模式失效概率的弹性(0.239)远大于二者的弹性(平曲线半径和超高的弹性分别仅为0.097和0.002);重型卡车的事故与多模式失效概率近似线性关系,且截距不为0。即多模式失效概率可用于道路安全分析的表征指标,但与事故概率不等价。   相似文献   

19.
为了明晰公路隧道交通事故严重程度的影响因素,在分析了16条公路隧道3年内发生的296起交通事故的空间特性、事故形态及其发生原因的基础上,以交通事故严重程度为因变量,将其分为仅财产损失、轻伤、重伤或死亡事故3个等级,从人、车和隧道行车环境3个方面选择了14个交通事故严重程度的潜在影响因素,分别采用有序Logit模型和部分优势比模型建立交通事故严重程度分析模型,并采用Brant检验判断比例优势假设。研究结果表明:与公路隧道交通事故严重程度显著相关的有4个自变量,分别为是否涉及大货车、事故涉及车辆数、事故发生时间和天气因素,其中是否涉及大货车、事故发生时间和天气因素3个自变量满足比例优势假设,而事故涉及车辆数不满足比例优势假设;对于部分优势比模型来说,涉及大货车的事故发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比不涉及大货车的事故分别增加10.2%和3.4%,多车事故发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比单车事故分别增加1.9%和5.9%,夜间发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比白天分别增加5.6%和1.7%,非雨天发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比雨天分别增加4.5%和1.5%。  相似文献   

20.
In March 2018, an Uber-pedestrian crash and a Tesla's Model X crash attracted a lot of media attention because the vehicles were operating under self-driving and autopilot mode respectively at the time of the crash. This study aims to conduct before-and-after sentiment analysis to examine how these two fatal crashes have affected people's perceptions of self-driving and autonomous vehicle technology using Twitter data. Five different and relevant keywords were used to extract tweets. Over 1.7 million tweets were found within 15 days before and after the incidents with the specific keywords, which were eventually analyzed in this study. The results indicate that after the two incidents, the negative tweets on “self-driving/autonomous” technology increased by 32 percentage points (from 14% to 46%). The compound scores of “pedestrian crash”, “Uber”, and “Tesla” keywords saw a 6% decrease while “self-driving/autonomous” recorded the highest change with an 11% decrease. Before the Uber-incident, 19% of the tweets on Uber were negative and 27% were positive. With the Uber-pedestrian crash, these percentages have changed to 30% negative and 23% positive. Overall, the negativity in the tweets and the percentage of negative tweets on self-driving/autonomous technology have increased after their involvement in fatal crashes. Providing opportunities to interact with this developing technology has shown to positively influence peoples' perception.  相似文献   

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