基于成本收益法的船舶建造风险控制方案实施效果评估

为使船舶建造风险控制方案更具经济合理性,将成本收益法引入风险控制方案实施效果评估,建立成本与收益评价指标体系,运用序关系(G1)法确定各评价指标权重,采用满意度调查问卷的形式量化指标,最后将计算得出的成本与收益进行比较分析以达到对风险控制方案实施效果进行评价的目的。该方法可为船舶建造风险控制方案实施成本收益分析提供理论基础和参考依据,同时也可以为成本收益法在其他领域的应用提供借鉴。     

船舶风险控制方案的层次分析-模糊综合评价

针对船舶事故综合风险评估过程中风险控制措施效果的评价影响因素繁多、评价主观性和不确定性较强的问题,以层次分析法建立风险评价指标体系,确定各制约因素的权重值,利用模糊集理论建立各指标因素的隶属度矩阵和模糊综合评价矩阵,在此基础上建立船舶风险控制方案效果的层次分析-模糊综合评价模型。以普通货船碰撞事故为例,建立船舶碰撞事故层级结构,通过专家调查问卷的形式统计分析专家意见,采用层次分析-模糊综合评价模型对普通货船碰撞事故风险控制方案进行评价,算例验证该评价模型在船舶综合风险评估过程中应用的可行性和合理性。     

基于AHP-TOPSIS模型的引航员疲劳风险评价研究

船舶引航员的疲劳强度关系到船舶航行安全。对引航员的疲劳程度进行有效识别并进行评价可以有助于保障船舶航行安全。本文在综合分析影响长江引航员疲劳因素的基础上,采用改进的层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,构建长江引航员疲劳风险评价体系,最后采用TOPSIS(近理想排序)方法建立长江引航员疲劳风险评价模型,并与相关人员主观认识结果进行比较,验证了模型的可行性与有效性。     

船舶操纵性能的模糊综合评估

寻找一种科学实用的船舶操纵性能综合评价方法一直是船舶研究者、设计者和使用者所追求的目标之一．应用模糊综合评估理论，建立了船舶操纵性能综合评估模型，通过对多条船舶的操纵性能所进行的计算分析表明，应用该模型可以得到符合实际的结论．     

基于物元理论的罗源湾水域船舶定线制评价研究

为加强罗源湾附近水域船舶的航行安全,通过IMO船舶定线制考虑的因素及罗源湾附近水域特点,确定了影响该水域船舶定线制通航安全的多种因素,从一致性、合理性、警戒区必要性以及自然条件4个方面建立该水域船舶定线制方案的评价体系,利用AHP的赋权方式确定指标权重,通过物元理论评价模型,对4组船舶定线制规划设计方案进行安全性评价,为完善船舶定线制,提高水域的综合利用提供建议和参考.研究表明:该方法能高效地处理评价船舶定线制多个定性、定量指标所引起的矛盾和不确定性的问题,使评判结果更加合理.同时,也可为其他水域的船舶定线制评价提供指导.     

三峡库区船舶溢油风险评价研究

以三峡库区为例,综合利用熵值法和指标无量纲化处理方法,综合考虑溢油发生的概率和产生的后果,建立溢油风险评价体系,实现了船舶溢油的定量评估。提出的评价模型可以有效减少主观因素的影响,并且能够有效识别出溢油风险高的水域,为海事管理机构有针对性的预防措施提供依据。     

吴淞国际邮轮码头建设方案比选

针对评价方案的多因素、多层次、不确定性,以集对分析理论为基础,采用层次分析法确定码头方案评价指标的权重,建立码头方案比选的综合评价模型.综合考虑影响码头方案的各种因素,以及不同层次之间影响因素的指标权重的有效合成,给出各方案的优劣顺序.     

基于AHP-Fuzzy模型的船舶备件保障效益评价

针对船舶备件保障效益评价指标存在的多样性和影响程度不同的特点,通过对备件保障效益的分析,建立了备件保障效益综合评价指标体系,运用AHP和模糊综合评价法分别对指标体系进行了指标权重和备件保障效益评价,形成了一套基于AHP-Fuzzy的船舶备件保障效益评价模型。实例验证表明,该方法对评价船舶备件保障效益具有一定的借鉴价值。     

基于熵值法的船舶涂装工艺多目标评价模型

为提升船舶涂装工艺管理水平,解决传统涂装工艺评价对人工经验依赖性强的问题,基于多目标理论构建多目标评价模型,综合考虑干膜厚度、经济成本及涂装效率,以涂层质量、涂料用量和涂装工时为评价标准建立目标函数。采用熵值法确定各目标函数权重系数,可以更客观地反应各目标函数对评价结果的影响。结果表明,该方法对涂层质量的评价与人工检验结果一致,此外,该多目标函数综合考虑船舶涂装经济性与时效性,评价结果更加科学合理,该研究成果可为船舶涂装工艺的预制定与涂装工艺参数的优化提供参照。     

船舶仓储管理绩效的评估模型

针对船舶仓储管理涉及因素多,难以定量评估的特点,对影响船舶仓储管理的各因素指标进行了分析,明确了船舶仓储管理的主要内容,分析了仓储绩效评估的有关方法,构建了船舶仓储管理评估指标体系.论文采用模糊综合评估方法,建立了仓储管理绩效评估模型,通过实例对仓储管理模型进行了验证.结果分析表明,运用模糊综合评估法对船舶仓储管理进行...     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

实物期权在航运企业船舶投资决策中的应用

航运业是一个具有特殊风险的行业,然而传统的船舶投资决策却总是忽略不确定性对投资价值的影响。将实物期权运用到航运企业船舶投资决策中,运用布莱克-舒尔斯的期权定价公式,得出含有实物期权的投资价值和一般的投资价值,定量地分析了不确定性对投资价值的影响,使船舶投资价值与决策相一致,最终使航运企业获得最大的投资收益。     

某船柴油机转速波动故障的分析与研究

文章根据船东提供的关于该船柴油机转速频繁波动的故障现象及随机资料,对在分析产生故障的原因和采取的处理方案、达到排除故障的结果等方面进行了论述。     

Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach

This paper uses a real option approach to analyze terminal investment timing decisions for situations in which a port faces competition from its rivals in an uncertain market. We propose a network model to describe carriers’ cargo routing decisions and competition among rival ports. We then transform this model into a multicommodity flow problem and use the column generation algorithm to solve it. After obtaining a port’s possible future annual revenues and the potential net present value (NPV) for its terminal construction project through the network model, we adopt the expanded NPV rule and transform the investment timing decision into an optimal stopping problem. A least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to find the investing probabilities for future years. The proposed models are applied to a steel cargo terminal investment case in the Port of Bengbu in Anhui province of China. The impacts on the investing probability and the expanded NPV of changes in the demand volatility, the initial investment and the port discharging rate are analyzed to provide managerial insights for port managers.     

国际航运投资决策应用实物期权方法的分析

从国际航运的投资特点出发,通过实物期权方法与现行方法的比较,分析了国际航运投资决策应用实物期权方法的必要性与可行性,初步提出了国际航运投资项目存在的八种灵活性及其相应的实物期权。     

涵洞基坑降水方案比选与参数分析

结合哈大铁路客运专线DK651+972涵洞施工的实例,论述了根据实际水文地质条件确定降水方案,对以往经验参数进行修改,以达到降水目的及确保工程顺利进行。     

洋山港疏浚土资源化利用探讨

位于杭州湾湾口北侧、上海市东南方的崎岖列岛,由数十个小岛组成,是离上海市最近的拥有深水岸线的岛屿群。依托于崎岖列岛建设的洋山港,是一个通过（东海）大桥连接于大陆的典型离岸海港,由于毗邻多水多沙的长江口且当地潮汐强度大,港内水体以含沙量高、流速大为主要特点,因而预期营运后港口存在大量维护性疏浚土需处理的问题。文章结合港口平面形态、疏浚部位与强度和可持续发展的要求,拟从适宜的维护疏浚方式、泥土处理的环保要求以及港内适宜布置泥土处理的条件等方面,提出洋山港疏浚土资源化利用方案。     

Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

必要费率在经济船型论证和方案比选中的应用

必要费率是港口工程多方案项目经济比选方法之一。本文通过经济船型论证,介绍了必要运费率的计算过程,进而计算出综合必要费率并进行方案经济比选,从经济角度方面推荐合理的建设方案。