基于AR-EMD方法的扩展非平稳船舶运动极短期预报AR模型

准确的极短期预报技术能够提高对船舶摇荡运动敏感的海洋特种作业安全性和效率。自回归（auto-regressive,AR）预报模型由于其自适应性强、计算效率高而被广泛应用于船舶运动的极短期预报研究。但该模型基于平稳随机假设,因而在非平稳船舶运动的极短期预报中存在困难。针对非平稳船舶运动极短期预报,文章提出一种基于AR-EMD方法的扩展AR模型,称为EMD-AR预报模型。其中,AR-EMD方法是指在经验模态分解（empirical mode decomposition,EMD）的过程中,采用AR预报的方法处理端点效应问题。 EMD-AR预报模型将非平稳信号分解成若干平稳的固有模态函数分量及余项,然后对各个分量分别用AR模型预报,得到最终的预报结果,以此克服非平稳性对AR预报模型的影响。研究基于船舶试验数据将EMD-AR模型与线性AR模型、非线性支持向量机回归（support vector regression,SVR）预报模型进行对比分析,结果表明,AR-EMD方法能够有效处理船舶运动非平稳性对AR预报模型的影响,提高该模型的预报精度,且EMD-AR模型预报性能较线性AR模型和非线性SVR模型更优。     

基于AR-EMD方法的扩展非平稳船舶运动极短期预报AR模型（英文）

准确的极短期预报技术能够提高对船舶摇荡运动敏感的海洋特种作业安全性和效率。自回归(auto-regressive,AR)预报模型由于其自适应性强、计算效率高而被广泛应用于船舶运动的极短期预报研究。但该模型基于平稳随机假设,因而在非平稳船舶运动的极短期预报中存在困难。针对非平稳船舶运动极短期预报,文章提出一种基于AR-EMD方法的扩展AR模型,称为EMD-AR预报模型。其中,AR-EMD方法是指在经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition,EMD)的过程中,采用AR预报的方法处理端点效应问题。EMD-AR预报模型将非平稳信号分解成若干平稳的固有模态函数分量及余项,然后对各个分量分别用AR模型预报,得到最终的预报结果,以此克服非平稳性对AR预报模型的影响。研究基于船舶试验数据将EMD-AR模型与线性AR模型、非线性支持向量机回归(support vector regression,SVR)预报模型进行对比分析,结果表明,AR-EMD方法能够有效处理船舶运动非平稳性对AR预报模型的影响,提高该模型的预报精度,且EMD-AR模型预报性能较线性AR模型和非线性SVR模型更优。     

基于小波滤波和LSTM神经网络的船舶运动极短期预报研究

为了提高船舶运动极短期预报精度及预报时间长度,本文采用小波多分辨率分析方法,将含有噪声的船舶运动信号进行了多尺度小波变换,通过采用阈值函数法对各尺度下细节信号的小波系数进行处理,对小波分解层数、小波基函数、阈值处理方法进行了深入研究,并通过模型试验数据对滤波效果进行了验证分析,实现了船舶运动信号的小波滤波.进一步针对船舶运动的非线性特性,基于深度神经网络的非线性映射能力,建立了基于LSTM网络的多步直接映射船舶运动极短期预报模型,并采用滤波后的船舶运动数据进行了不同工况下的预报分析.结果表明,不同时间长度的预报与试验结果幅值和相位吻合较好,验证了所建立的极短期预报模型的可行性.     

基于EMD的柴油机失火故障诊断

提出了一种基于经验模式分解（Empirical Mode Decomposition，EMD）和自回归（Auto Regression，AR）模型的柴油机失火故障诊断方法．对3110型柴油机断油故障及正常情况下的缸盖振动信号进行了测试分析，采用经验模式分解EMD方法对振动信号进行分解，得到固有模态函数（Intrinsic Mode Function，IMF），对每一个IMF分量分别建立AR模型，以模型的自回归参数和残差的方差作为特征向量，用支持向量机（Support Vector Machines，SVM）进行分类，判断柴油机的工作状态和故障类型．实验结果分析表明，该方法即使在小样本情况下也能准确有效地诊断柴油机失火故障，能实现故障的实时自动化诊断．     

基于时间序列法的舰船运动预报实验研究

采用线性自回归AR模型、具有首前波观测量的ARMA模型以及非线性自回归NAR模型三种方法分别对舰船运动进行预报,将得到的预报结果与实验测量结果进行验证比较,并对最佳预报模式进行讨论.     

波浪运动补偿平台广义升沉位移的实时预报

具有波浪运动补偿功能的稳定平台可有效减少船舶在风浪中的摇摆和升沉运动对某些海上作业和设备的影响.为了有效地进行波浪运动补偿,需要对该平台的广义升沉位移(横摇、纵摇以及升沉的耦合作用结果)进行极短时预报.本文采用时间序列分析理论中的自回归(AR)模型作为预报模型,对波浪运动补偿平台的广义升沉位移进行极短时预报.在以往的研究中,通常采用递推最小二乘法AR模型进行在线参数估计.但是采用递推最小二乘法进行参数估计容易引起参数爆发,从而影响AR模型的稳定性.针对该问题,本文采用阻尼递推最小二乘法对AR模型进行在线参数估计,并结合实验获得的平台控制点的广义升沉位移数据进行实时建模预报.仿真结果表明,采用阻尼递推最小二乘法进行参数估计能抑制参数爆发,并能提高AR模型实时预报精度.     

舰船运动姿态仿真与多层AR预报研究

舰船运动姿态预报可更好地保障舰船各项作业的顺利进行,提高航行安全性。该文从频域角度仿真随机风浪,据此仿真舰船运动。考虑到舰船运动姿态时域上的非线性、非平稳特点,采用多层AR模型进行舰船运动姿态预报,并根据仿真案例进行预报检验。多层AR方法能有效提高极短期预报的精度。     

船舶运动极短期预报研究

本文通过对两艘有航速情况下的船舶运动实测数据的分析，试图寻求一种准确程度较高的极短期预报模型。该文共分两部分，第一部分利用ＡＲ模型导出多级ＡＲ模型，预报精度明显提高。在对运动瞬时值预报中，利用包络对结果进行修正，精度有所改进；第二部分利用人工神经网络导出了包络的预报模式，预报精度明显高于ＡＲ模型。     

基于混沌理论与RBF神经网络的船舶运动极短期预报研究

文章基于混沌动力系统相空间重构理论,利用关联维数法和最大Lyapunov指数法,对船舶运动时间序列的混沌特性进行了判定。并利用RBF神经网络较强的非线性映射功能,结合相空间重构理论建立了船舶运动极短期直接多步预报模型。实例预报结果表明,所建立的预报模型应用于船舶运动极短期预报取得了令人满意的预报精度,预报时间可达10 s。     

船舶运动的极短期预报试验

利用自回归模型对船舶运动进行了预报试验研究。试验结果表明,对于直升机稳定平台补偿控制系统来说,由于只需要对船舶未来极短时间内的运动进行预报,所以基于自回归模型的预报方法能满足系统的实际要求,是一种简单、可行的方法。     

Errata

正In the paper"Influence of Fouling Assemblage on the Corrosion Behaviour of Mild Steel in the Coastal Waters of The Gulf of Mannar,India"in Vol.12,No.4,Page:509,References were lost,and the two authors’biographies were identical.The correct text is shown below.We apologize to the authors and our readers for any inconvenience caused by the errors.     

Journal of Marine Science and Application 2014 Sum. Contents

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33rd International Conference on Ocean,Offshore and Arctic Engineering （OMAE2014）

正San Francisco,California,June 8-13,2014.OMAE 2014 is the ideal forum for researchers,engineers,managers,technicians and students from the scientific and industrial communities from around the world to:·meet and present advances in technology and its scientific support;·to exchange ideas and experiences whilst promoting technological progress and its application in industry·to promote international cooperation in ocean,offshore and arctic engineering.In line with the tradition of excellence of previous OMAE conferences,more than 900 technical papers are planned for presentation.Outreach for Engineers Specialty Forum This Specialty Forum is designed for students and professionals who may not be familiar with the Ocean and Offshore industry,as well as those who have just recently specialized in this field.     

联合作战计划和执行系统

全球指挥控制系统(GCCS)实施当前美国海军网络中心战信息基础设施的联合计划网络。联合作战计划和执行系统(JOPES)支持GCCS实现联合计划。JOPES有两类计划：时间不限的精密预案计划生成作战计划、方案计划或职能计划；时间敏感的危机行动计划生成作战命令或战役方案。前者在和平时期创建的作战计划是后者的计划基础，加速应付危机的能力。     

Recent progress on wave induced loading measurements in warships

Recent measurements of wave induced hull strain and flexure in RN warships are presented together with the derivation of the current design criteria for extreme hull girder bending loads. The history of the development of the shipboard instrumentation used is given and recent developments to improve the quality and ease of analysis of the data are described. An unexpectedly high transverse asymmetry in the longitudinal strains measured in destroyers is shown to be the result of a combination of vertical and lateral bending in oblique seas. Finally recent theoretical comparisons between the loading of Deep-Vee hulls and conventional UK rounded bilge hulls are presented which demonstrate the higher loading experienced by this type of hull form.     

The 11th International Conference on Hydrodynamics (ICHD 2014)

正19–24 October 2014 SingaporeCONFERENCE THEMES The overall aim of the ICHD Conference is to provide a forum for participants from around the world to review,discuss and present the latest developments in the broad discipline of hydrodynamics and fluid mechanics.The first International Conference on Hydrodynamics(ICHD)was initiated in 1994 in Wuxi,China.Since then,9 more ICHD conferences were held subsequently in Hong Kong,Seoul,Yokohama,Tainan,Perth,Ischia,Nantes,Shanghai and St Petersburg.Evidently the ICHD conference has become an important event among academics,researchers,engineers and operators,working in the fields closely related to the science and technology of hydrodynamics.The 11th ICHD will be held in Singapore in 2014.     

第十二届深水操作会议和展览会(英文)

正November 4-6,2014Moody Gardens HotelConvention Center/Galveston,TX The Deepwater Operations Conference and Exhibition is celebrating its 12th anniversary this year.This growing event will continue the tradition of excellence in addressing operational challenges involved in developing deepwater resources.We will return to the Moody Gardens Hotel and Convention Center on November 5-7,2014 in Galveston,Texas.     

Eastbound or westbound ?

In terms of equal sailing distances, where is the inflexion when ships depart from ports in the Asian Continent to New York via Suez and/or Panama？
The answer is China South Port Group （Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou）.     

Impact of regulation on the performances of long-distance transport services: A comparison of the different approaches in Sweden and Norway

Despite the many socio-economic similarities between Sweden and Norway, differences in jurisdiction, organisation, cooperation, and financing of long-distance passenger train and coach services have led to the development of four distinctively different ways of serving the markets. This paper describes how the train and coach markets have developed in the two countries, with emphasis on regulatory and industrial structure and a couple of performance variables.Looking at passenger rail, both countries separated infrastructure from operation over a decade ago. However, while Norwegian rail is characterised by an almost monopoly supplier, rail services in Sweden are partly decentralised to the responsibility of county authorities and are widely subjected to competitive tendering. The rest of the network is about to be opened up for on-the-track competition. Swedish Rail (SJ) has spent the last decades consolidating its core business (passenger rail) and sold out its other businesses. In contrast, the Norwegian state rail (NSB) has expanded its business to become a major bus operator and property owner, with extensions also into the Swedish market.The coach industry was more recently deregulated in both countries. The Swedish coach market is dominated by privately owned companies operating services to and from Stockholm. In Norway, state-owned NSB is a major coach operator on medium distance routes, and is also the largest partner of Nor-Way Bussekspress which totally dominates long-distance coach services. Further, the Norwegian coach market is characterised by cross-ownership and cooperation which has enabled an extensive route network which covers most of Norway.We find distinct differences in achievements in the two modes and in the two countries. Swedish rail services have succeeded in winning market shares and in renewing and developing both infrastructure and service levels to a greater extent than the Norwegian model. On the other hand, the Norwegian coach market seems to be more developed and efficient compared to its Swedish counterpart.The paper concludes with a discussion on the possible links between the different approaches and the performance observed, with the aim to stimulate further and more detailed research on some important issues.     

某海港码头的撞损修复

依据码头撞击受损区域调查检测结果,对受损构件提出合理的修复方案,为码头的安全运行提供保障。