Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

Cargo ship aft panel stresses prediction by deconvolution

This article introduces novel extreme value prediction method that can be used for a variety of offshore engineering applications. First, to demonstrate the novel method, fictitious data from a non-linear Duffing oscillator and measured wave heights were used as examples. The second incident included a container ship that experienced significant deck panel strains while traveling across the Atlantic Ocean in bad weather. The main concern for cargo ship transportation is potential loss of container owing to violent movements. It is challenging to model such a situation because waves and ship motions are both non-stationary and complicatedly nonlinear. Extreme motions greatly increase the role of nonlinearities, activating effects of second and higher order.Furthermore, due to the scaling and the choice of sea state, laboratory testing may also be called into doubt. Therefore, data collected from actual ships during difficult weather voyages offers a special perspective on the statistics of ship motions.This paper aims to highlight an alternative method of extrapolation that is based on intrinsic properties of the data set itself and does not assume any extrapolation functional class. Extreme value predictions typically originate from certain statistical distribution functional classes to fit the data and then extrapolate. Engineering design can make use of the unique extrapolation method that has been proposed. The proposed method's forecast accuracy has been verified in comparison to the Averaged Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER) extrapolation method.     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

First year ice interactions on Molikpaq: Measurements and experiments

The Molikpaq is a steel mobile arctic structure which has been used for exploration of hydrocarbon reserves on the Canadian Beaufort shelf. In early 1986, the Molikpaq experienced numerous interactions with various ice features at Amanuligak I-65. An extensive ice loads investigation program was conducted as a joint industrial project. Ishikawajima-Harima Heary Industries (IHI) has proposed a method to estimate the global ice load on an arctic structure by utilizing results from ice tank experiments. Experiments were conducted in the IHI ice model tank using a model of the Molikpaq. A comparison between the measured ice loads and the estimated ice loads was made and it was found to be in fair agreement, in spite of some uncertainties involved in both the measured and the estimated ice loads. In this paper, instrumentation which the Molikpaq employed in the investigation program is briefly introduced. Failure modes of ice features observed in the program are also mentioned. The basic idea behind the dual parameters testing and estimating method (DuPTEM) is described. The model experiments and the results are then outlined. The comparison between the measured and estimated ice loads is shown. Finally, uncertainties in both the estimated and the measured ice loads are discussed.     

Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.     

Time-domain simulation of wave-induced nonlinear motions and loads and its applications in ship design

A nonlinear time-domain formulation for ship motions and wave loads and a nonlinear long-term statistics method are presented and applied to the S175 container ship. The general agreement between model tests and numerical results is very satisfactory. The calculated long-term vertical sagging and hogging moments amidships are comparable to those given by DNV rules. The approach described in this paper can be used as a way of more accurately evaluating extreme wave loads and other nonlinear responses in ship design.     

Sequential sampling method using Gaussian process regression for estimating extreme structural response

A methodology for estimating extreme response statistics for marine structures, that takes both the long-term variability of the metocean environment and the short-term variability of response into account is presented. The proposed methodology uses Gaussian process regression to estimate parameters of the short-term response distribution, based on output from computationally expensive hydrodynamic simulations. We present an adaptive design strategy for sequential updating of the model, focusing on the metocean conditions that contribute the most to the long-term extreme. With this approach, only a limited number of hydrodynamic simulations are needed.The suggested approach is demonstrated on the problem of estimating the 25-year extreme vertical bending moment on a ship. We show that a relatively small number of iterations (full hydrodynamic simulations) are needed to converge toward the “exact” results obtained by running a large number of simulations covering the entire range of sea states.The results suggest that the proposed method can be used as an alternative to contour-based methods or other methods that consider a few sea states using accurate numerical simulations, with little or no added complexity or computational effort.     

Hydroelastic analysis of a very large floating plate with large deflections in stochastic seaway

The hydroelasticity of a very large floating plate with large deflections in multidirectional irregular waves is discussed. After a brief introduction on wave loads on a flexible structure, the paper derives the generalised fluid force acting on a floating structure in multidirectional irregular waves. The nonlinear sectional forces induced by the membrane forces in the plate are deduced. The hydroelastic response equations of a floating plate with large deflections in multidirectional irregular waves are established, and a solution method in the frequency domain is discussed including extreme value statistics. A very large floating structure is chosen as an example. The numerical results show that the influence of the membrane forces on the vertical displacements and the bending moments is noticeable but not that large.     

基于马尔可夫链的极值波高预测

本文研究了由日最大波高系列估算设计极值波高时，相邻日最大波高间的相关性对极值预测的影响，从日最大波高系列遵从马尔可夫链的假定出发，考虑到国内外经常采用对数一正态分布的韦布尔分布拟合波高长期分布的现实，本文用解析法求解了对数一正态分布情况下的极值预测。同时，对解析法难以求解的非正态随机变量情况（如韦布尔分布），用计算机随机模拟方法求解其极值预测，用上述两种方法对北大西洋和北海有关日最大波高系列的预测     

Uncertainty of estimated rainflow damage for random loads

One way to assess the uncertainty in fatigue damage analysis is to use a so-called safety index. In the computation of such an index the coefficient of variation for the accumulated damage is needed. Employing the rainflow cycle count method for fatigue damage leads to, in most cases, complicated calculations. Here we present a new and simplified method to estimate the coefficient of variation for the accumulated damage when only one sample path of the load is available. Non-stationary, slowly changing, Gaussian loads are given special attention. The approach is illustrated by means of stationary Gaussian loads with nine different spectra, a measured non-Gaussian load, a skewed load and the wave load accumulated during one year in a “seasonally changing environment”.     

损伤舰船结构安全性评估

损伤舰船的承载能力和环境载荷涉及许多不确定因素。为评估某舰损伤情况下的结构安全性,提出了基于极限强度和极值载荷的损伤舰船结构可靠性模型,分析了损伤舰船极限强度和极值载荷的统计特征,采用拉丁超立方抽样与条件期望和对偶变数相结合的方法进行可靠性分析。可靠性分析结果表明损伤舰船目标裕度可取0.75。     

Collapse strength of hatch cover of bulk carrier subjected to lateral pressure load

A series of elastoplastic large deflection FEM analyses has been performed on hatch covers of bulk carriers subjected to lateral load. Two types of hatch covers are considered which are the folding type and the side-sliding type. For the folding-type cover, one size is considered which is for Handy size bulk carrier, whilst for the side-sliding-type cover, two sizes are considered which are for Panamax and Cape size bulk carriers. For each type, two hatch covers are selected which are designed in accordance with the old ICLL rule and new IACS rule, respectively. Calculated collapse strengths are compared with individual design loads, and a strength assessment is performed. On the basis of collapse behaviour observed in FEM analyses, a simple method is proposed to evaluate the collapse strength of a hatch cover subjected to lateral load. It is confirmed that the collapse strength is accurately predicted by the proposed method.     

船体结构直接计算法中垂向波浪弯矩的确定

根据极值统计学原理，论证了长期特征最大值和长期极值特征值之间的关系，即当弯矩循环次数充分大时，最可能极值即为特征最大值，设计极值即为设计最大值。根据这一结论，提出了一种估算船舶垂向非线性波浪弯矩长期特征最大值的简便方法，使计算大为简化。     

海上自升式平台动力分析方法研究(英文)

A jack-up platform,with its particular structure,showed obvious dynamic characteristics under complex environmental loads in extreme conditions.In this paper,taking a simplified 3-D finite element dynamic model in extreme storm conditions as research object,a transient dynamic analysis method was proposed,which was under both regular and irregular wave loads.The steps of dynamic analysis under extreme conditions were illustrated with an applied case,and the dynamic amplification factor(DAF) was calculated for each response parameter of base shear,overturning moment and hull sway.Finally,the structural response results of dynamic and static were compared and analyzed.The results indicated that the static strength analysis of the Jack-up Platforms was not enough under the dynamic loads including wave and current,further dynamic response analysis considering both computational efficiency and accuracy was necessary.     

水下波能装置的波致弹性变形研究（英文）

Structural integrity has remained a challenge for design and analysis of wave energy devices. A difficulty in assessment of the structural integrity is often laid in the accurate determination of the wave-induced loads on the wave energy devices and the repones of the structure. Decoupled hydroelastic response of a submerged, oscillating wave energy device to extreme nonlinear wave loads is studied here. The submerged wave energy device consists of an oscillating horizontal disc attached to a direct-drive power take-off system. The structural frame of the wave energy device is fixed on the seafloor in shallow water. Several extreme wave conditions are considered in this study. The nonlinear wave loads on members of the submerged structure are obtained by use of the level I Green-Naghdi equations and Morison's equation for cylindrical members.Distribution of Von Mises stresses and the elastic response of the structure to the extreme wave loads are determined by use of a finite element method. The decoupled hydroelastic analysis of the structure is carried out for devices built by four different materials, namely stainless steel, concrete, aluminium alloy, and titanium alloy. The elastic response of these devices is studied and results are compared with each other. Points of maximum stress and deformations are determined and the structural integrity under the extreme conditions is assessed. It is shown that the proposed approaches provide invaluable information about the structural integrity of wave energy devices.     

海洋平台设计中的风浪参数选取标准

以我国渤海某区1970年至1993年风暴过程的后报资料为基础,提出了泊松二维冈贝尔逻辑分布,并将其用于风暴过程中伴生的风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了美国石油协会(API)行业标准有关环境条件三种设计标准的具体做法.基于新的统计模式,同时提出了联合概率法设计标准.比较了多种标准所得设计参数的差异,给出了适合工程所在海区的环境荷载参数.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于遭受风暴影响的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

Required test durations for converged short-term wave and impact extreme value statistics–Part 2: Deck box dataset

In the assessment of wave-in-deck loads for new and existing maritime structures typically model tests are carried out. To determine the most critical conditions and measure sufficient impact loads, a range of sea states and various seeds (realisations) for each sea state are tested. Based on these measurements, probability distributions can be derived and design loads determined. In air gap model testing usually only few, if any, impact loads occur per 3-hour seed. This can make it challenging to derive reliable probability distributions of the measured loads, especially when only a few seeds are generated. In addition wave impact forces, such as greenwater loading, slamming, or air gap impacts are typically strongly non-linear, resulting in a large variability of the measured loads. This results in the following questions: How many impacts are needed to derive a reliable distribution? How is the repeatability of individual events affecting the overall distribution? To answer these questions wave-in-deck model tests were carried out in 100 x 3-hour realisations of a 10,000 year North Sea sea state. The resulting probability distributions of the undisturbed wave measurements as well as the measured wave-in-deck loads are presented in this paper with focus on deriving the number of seeds and exposure durations required for a reliable estimate of design loads.The presented study is Part 2 of a combined study on guidance for the convergence and variability of wave crests and impact loading extreme values. The data set of Part 1 ([1]) is based on greenwater loads on a sailing ferry and the data set of Part 2 on wave-in-deck loads on a stationary deck box.     

Combining low- and high-frequency loads acting on large floating structures

Loads acting on large floating structures usually consist of high-frequency and low-frequency loads. The high-frequency loads are associated with the hydroelastic behavior of the structure and excitation of the natural frequency modes. The low-frequency loads are associated with the body motion of the structure and the wave profile. In design analysis, extreme values of these loads must be combined taking into consideration the correlation between them. This paper discusses a methodology for combining the extreme loads, and proposes a simple formulation suitable for use in reliability analysis. A proposed load combination factor K was found to depend on the correlation coefficient of the two loads, the ratio of their standard deviations and the frequency content of the processes from which the loads are determined. The correlation coefficient was found to depend on the complex frequency response functions of the loads and the input wave spectrum. The paper also discusses characteristic extreme values of slightly nonlinear loads acting on large floating structures.Extreme loads may be based on a storm condition with a specified return period. Since very large floating structures are expected to have a long operational lifetime, the return period must be selected carefully. The paper discusses a method for selecting return periods based on the expected operational life of the structure and encounter probability.     

在船舶航行条件下热带气旋强度变化预报的相似离度方案

该文提出了在船舶航行条件下利用相似离度作西北太平洋热带气旋６—７２ｈ强度变化预报的方法，并进行了独立样本预报检验和实船试验，基于相似离度利用“形”和“值”两个方面全面去比较实时样本和历史样本之间的相似程度的优．点，采取了一系列相似离度应用技术，从三万多条历史样本曲线库中寻找最相似的样本曲线的未来变压进行强度变化预报，有利于提高预报准确率，减小预报误差，独立样本的预报检验和实船试验表明，该方法具有简便、迅速等特点，还具有较高的预报精度；是现行船舶航行条件下或岸上气象台站及作热带气旋强度变化预报的一种切实可行的途径。