马村港设计波浪

马村港附近没有长期测波站，仅有四年波浪资料，本文应用波高长期分布符合对数正态分布的规律，推算设计波高，确定相应的波向，并计算设计波周期，从而满足了港口设计需要。     

熵分布原理与白龙尾站设计波高估计

为了得到更加客观的设计参数,寻找适应性更广的线型、选取更加合理的参数估计方法是水文极值要素频率分析的重要研究课题.将最大熵分布用于极值序列的统计分析,该分布有4个可调参数,适线分析更加灵活.以北海白龙尾海洋观测站16a极值波高记录为例,采用最大熵分布进行统计分析,并与冈贝尔、皮尔逊Ⅲ型,对数正态、威布尔分布的拟合结果进行比较,给出了白龙尾站设计波高参数,供海洋工程设计作为参考.     

风暴海区风浪联合重现值估计的PBLD模式

文选取我国某海区风暴过程的后报资料,将台风发生频次以泊松分布进行描述,提出泊松二维对数正态分布,并将其用于海上油气工程设计中极值风速与波高联合重现值的估计计算,与传统的单一因素设计法比较,二维复合型极值分布能够反映风速与波高对海上结构物的联合作用,所得设计参数比传统法降低约10%.本文提出的统计分布模型概率意义明确,适度合理地降低了风浪设计标准.     

直墙前承台结构总上托力试验研究

为了研究直墙前承台所受总上托力,采用物理模型试验,研究不规则波作用下总上托力时空分布特征和峰值统计分布情况,分析波高、相对波长、相对板宽和相对超高等因素与总上托力的关系。结果表明,相对超高Δh/H_s>-0.5时最大总上托力和最大冲击压强同时发生;总上托力的峰值统计分布符合三参数威布尔分布;总上托力随相对超高的变化近似呈正态分布,并在Δh/H_s=0.2附近出现极值;建议工程设计时尽量避免将承台底面布置在静水面附近,宜将承台底面布置在水面以下一半波高的位置。     

大连港大窑湾港区设计波浪

介绍大连港大窑湾港区设计波的计算和分析，并对常规采用实浊年最大波高系列进行频率分析推算设计波高的计算方法提出看法。     

海杂波典型幅度分布模型的仿真分析

为改善舰载雷达目标检测的性能,对瑞利分布、对数正态分布、韦布尔分布和K分布四种典型海杂波幅度分布模型进行模拟仿真,分析了四种分布模型的特点规律,并采用海杂波实测数据,对模型进行拟合度检验,实验结果表明,K分布海杂波模型实用性广,能够在不同参数下描述多种海况的海杂波分布规律,为抑制海杂波提高目标检测性能提供了理论依据。     

不同方法对南黄海重现波高计算值的影响

采用SWAN波浪模型对江苏南黄海地区1979~2018年共40 a的波况进行模拟及验证,将模拟结果与实测资料进行比对,吻合良好。百年重现波高分布通过基于年极值和月极值的广义极值分布函数(GEV)和超阈值取值方法(POT)的广义帕累托分布模型(GP)计算得出。计算结果表明,不同方法的计算结果在辐射沙洲北部地区差别最大,采用月极值所得重现波高偏小,采用年极值计算的重现波高在辐射沙洲南北外围地区最大,其余地区则以POT方法为大值。在分别采用不同数据长度计算重现波高的试验中得出,取月极值的GEV分布计算结果对时间跨度的改变不敏感,而取年极值受之影响最大,POT方法介于两者之间。     

在随机载荷作用下用断裂力学法估算潜艇耐压壳体的疲劳寿命和裂纹尺寸

潜艇在上浮下潜的过程中承受着反复作用的由外部水压力所产生的随机载荷,耐压壳体面临着疲劳破坏。本文引入了潜艇的疲劳载荷谱,模拟了潜艇随机载荷历程,并对一次载荷历程估算了疲劳寿命;同时模拟了100次载荷历程,分别对疲劳寿命和裂纹尺寸进行了统计,结果表明裂纹的疲劳寿命符合威布尔分布,裂纹扩展尺寸服从对数正态分布。该结论与目前疲劳可靠性分析中使用的对数正态分布模型和威布尔分布模型相一致。     

南海北部海洋平台环境参数嵌套逻辑分布估计

海洋平台环境参数的单因素设计标准无法反映真实海况,文章针对该缺点提出了基于最大熵边缘的三维嵌套逻辑模型。该模型采用的最大熵边缘可以涵盖大多数设计线型,如Gumbel分布、Weibull分布、对数正态分布等;三维嵌套逻辑模型可以反映海洋环境参数的相关关系及变量的不对称性。总结并提出了三种海洋环境条件设计标准,即单因素统计方法、条件概率分布设计法和联合环境条件设计法。利用南海涠洲岛后报的年极值风速及对应有效波高、平均周期数据,对三维模型和海洋平台环境条件联合设计标准进行了实例验证。结果表明,三维模型对数据拟合良好,联合设计标准更符合实际。     

联合极值分布在码头顶高程计算中的应用

介绍国际工程中常用的码头顶高程计算方法和二维极值分布，指出码头顶高程计算中主要考虑的变量是波高和水位。以几内亚铝矾土出口码头项目为例，提出波峰面高度重现期的概念。采用极值分布理论对水位和波高分别进行拟合，选择了合适的水位和波高联合极值分布模型。从案例计算结果对比分析发现，引入波峰面高度重现期的概念，采用水位和波高联合极值分布所计算的码头顶高程比采用二者单独一维极值分布计算的码头顶高程低。在波浪较小区域，该计算结论对EPC承包商控制成本、提高履约能力有积极作用。     

Estimation of extreme significant wave heights and the associated uncertainties: A case study using NORA10 hindcast data for the Barents Sea

The reliability of an offshore structure is dependent on its response to the extreme wave climate; therefore, an adequate knowledge of the wave climate at a location is a prerequisite during design as well as in marine operations. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of the extreme wave climate in the Norwegian Sector of the Barents Sea, using wave hindcast datasets from the Norwegian Reanalysis 10 km (NORA10) database for four locations.We have considered three commonly used methods for the estimation of extreme wave heights, that is, the initial distribution method, the peak over threshold method, and the annual maxima method. The parametric bootstrap concept is considered in the estimation of the epistemic uncertainty related to sample size. The estimated 100-year significant wave heights obtained from the three methods differ, and the degree of variability in the estimates varies, depending on the dataset. The epistemic uncertainty due to sample size is wider when considering the annual maxima method.The estimates obtained from the three methods show the importance of considering different methods and their associated uncertainties when estimating extreme wave values for design. While it is difficult to single out the best method among the three, the estimated values give knowledge of the possible range of the extreme significant wave heights at the locations. Generally, the datasets considered in this study suggest that the wave climate is less harsh further north compared to the southern region of the Barents Sea. The datasets do not suggest any temporal trends in the historical significant wave heights at any of the locations.     

基于两种转换函数的真实波浪参数的统计分析（英文）

The probability distributions of wave characteristics from three groups of sampled ocean data with different significant wave heights have been analyzed using two transformation functions estimated by non-parametric and parametric methods. The marginal wave characteristic distribution and the joint density of wave properties have been calculated using the two transformations, with the results and accuracy of both transformations presented here. The two transformations deviate slightly between each other for the calculation of the crest and trough height marginal wave distributions, as well as the joint densities of wave amplitude with other wave properties. The transformation methods for the calculation of the wave crest and trough height distributions are shown to provide good agreement with real ocean data. Our work will help in the determination of the most appropriate transformation procedure for the prediction of extreme values.     

海洋平台设计中的风浪参数选取标准

以我国渤海某区1970年至1993年风暴过程的后报资料为基础,提出了泊松二维冈贝尔逻辑分布,并将其用于风暴过程中伴生的风速与波高的联合概率计算,给出了美国石油协会(API)行业标准有关环境条件三种设计标准的具体做法.基于新的统计模式,同时提出了联合概率法设计标准.比较了多种标准所得设计参数的差异,给出了适合工程所在海区的环境荷载参数.计算结果表明,新的统计模式适用于遭受风暴影响的海洋工程结构设计,特别是边际油田的开发建设.     

基于stokes波浪理论的近海风电基础波浪荷载变化规律

针对近海风电基础所处的环境特点,参考实测资料,选取Stokes波浪理论,对作用在风电基础上的非线性波浪荷载进行了研究。计算得出了波浪特征参数确定时波浪的速度势函数、速度场函数和加速度场函数,通过分析其变化规律,计算出作用于基础的总波浪荷载的变化特征;在利用BP神经网络对波浪特征参数变量和周期内波浪荷载极值变量进行预测的基础上,获得了波浪荷载极值分布的概率密度函数。     

船舶横摇非线性运动最大值预报

横摇运动振幅渐近分布属于指数型分布，根据应用Markov过程理论得到的极值分布推导了最大值分布公式，同时提出了最大值预报方法。计算表明用此方法预报的最大值与实际统计的最大值非常接近，它比用线性理论预报的最大值误差要小，证明本文提出的最大值预报方法是可行的。     

台风波高重现值的泊松最大熵分布估计

以日本中城湾观测站实测台风过程出现的最大波高序列为例,提出了泊松-最大熵复合极值分布,并将其用于计算台风海浪的重现值波高.采用年极值法与过阈法对台风波高进行长期统计分析.计算结果表明:观测时段相同,阈值的选取对重现值的估计影响不大.而阈值相同,抽样时段的长度对重现值估计的影响较大;若样本时段较短,但极值波高的最大值包含于其中,则估计得到的重现值偏大,该结果对于结构设计是偏安全的.     

Discussion on the parameters of design waves

In order to respond the discredit on the design wave standard and to recommend new consideration on design wave parameters, based on the long-term distribution of statistic characteristics of waves and the short-term probability properties of sea state defined by giving the return period, the calculation of the return period, the height, the period, and the oceanic wave parameters of the design wave and the forecasting methods are discussed in this paper. To provide references for the operation reliability of floating structures in the extreme sea state, the method of determining the design wave parameters is resurveyed. A proposal is recommended that the design wave, which can be either significant wave with 500-year of the return period, or the maximum wave with 1/N of exceeding probability, 100-year of the return period, can be applied in the engineering design practice.     

Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.