天津港VTS水域交通动态风险管理研究与应用

文章针对天津VTS水域的实际情况,分析影响天津VTS水域交通动态风险的主要因素,基于FSA模糊综合评判理论,建立交通流控制的风险评价指标体系,依据Delphi方法,通过定量分析与问卷调查方式确定各评价指标在评价体系中所占的权重,又基于未确知测度理论,建立各评价指标的隶属度函数模型。结合电子海图系统,以颜色区分风险等级,对计算结果进行动态、直观显示。     

基于RBF神经网络的科研绩效评价建模研究

客观、公正、准确的科研绩效评价是调动和提高高校及科研机构科研人员工作积极性和科技创新能力的重要措施.文中提出了一种基于RBF神经网络的科研绩效精细评价模型,以归一化后的科研指标数据乘以相应权系数作为网络输入,利用优、良、中、及格和不及格5级评价作为输出,采用粒子群优化算法通过交叉验证对RBF网络结构参数进行了优化.通过RBF网络结构和输入输出特性分析发现,训练后的RBF网络权值与5级评价结果高度相关,并较5级评价结果更能精细区别科研绩效差异.该权值可直接用来进行科研绩效精细评价.文中推广了RBF网络在科研绩效评价中的应用,并为进行类似评价或评估工作提供了一种新思路.     

重庆海事局水上巡航与救助一体化专项工作经费项目绩效考评

以重庆海事局长江干线水上巡航与救助一体化专项工作经费项目为例,结合海事局行政事业类项目的特点和考评内容,选取经济性、效率性、效果性等3个方面内容及18个二级评价指标,采用层次分析法(AHP),得出该项目绩效考评的最终结果为优秀。该评判结果可为决策者制定有关海事行政事业类项目经费提供依据。     

基于ANP的通用型引航员绩效评价模型研究

引航员队伍体量的增加,来源渠道的多元化对引航机构的绩效管理工作提出了更高的要求;本文通过建立符合引航职业特点的引航员绩效评价指标体系,选用ANP法较为准确地为各级指标的权重赋值,采用模糊评价法对引航员绩效进行定量评价,力图建立通用型引航员绩效评价模型,为引航机构提供可能的参考。     

基于航行风险的船舶交管系统的分级管理

当前我国VTS(Vessel Traffic System)对水域内船舶采用划分"重点"的管理模式不利于船舶交通管理质量和效率的提高。提出以相对航行风险程度为标准对VTS水域内船舶进行分级的构想,运用模糊综合评价法尝试构建VTS水域船舶相对航行风险的评价模型,探讨了船舶分级管理的实施方法,并提出相应的船舶交通管理对策。     

基于云模型的船员适任性综合评价

为处理海上交通安全人的因素评价中抽象概念和定性语言的不确定性,通过深入分析其本质特点,结合改进的云理论,提出了一种新的基于云模型的综合评价方法,用于船员的适任性评价。该方法利用云模型对不确定信息处理的优势,最大限度地保留整个适任性评估过程中固有的不确定性,将定性定量变量进行云变换得到各个评价指标的概念云模型,然后通过概念"软与"操作激活相应规则后件,最终采用云模型计算得到基于云滴分布的综合评价结果。仿真研究表明,基于云模型的综合评价方法用于船员适任性评价是可行有效的,该方法使得评价内容更加丰富,评价结果直观,灵活、可靠,符合人类思维和推理方式。     

基于KPI的企业绩效评价系统——上港集团基层经理人员评价系统的构建与应用

通过对上港集团目前基层经理人绩效评价系统的基础性分析,寻找出该系统的不足与缺陷。在目前基层经理人绩效评价系统中引入关键绩效指标（KPI）评价法,运用KPI体系进行优化,计算实例表明提出的方案有效且可行。最后,针对基于KPI评价的绩效考核系统依然存在的缺陷,提出未来改进该系统的方法和研究方向。     

一种VTS管理水平的评价方法

尝试利用系统工程、现代管理理论和模糊数学方法建立一种VTS管理水平的评价模型,以寻求能对我国已建成VTS的管理进行评价和改进的方法。     

图像处理在船舶目标分类中的应用研究

随着我国航运业的快速发展,航运交通安全问题也成为管理者关注的重点。船舶交通管理系统得到发展和广泛使用。虽然雷达、自动识别系统(AIS)、全球定位系统(GPS)等辅助技术在VTS系统中得到运用,但这些技术在船舶分类识别等方面存在一定局限性。本文对图像处理技术在VTS系统中船舶分类应用的可行性进行研究,提出一种基于模板匹配和神经网络的船舶分类的算法模型,尝试通过该算法模型解决现有VTS系统存在的一些不足,同时进行仿真实验并给出仿真结果。     

基于SaaS的VTS综合效能评估云平台的研究

针对不同VTS评估管理部门需要对VTS运行效能进行综合评估的需求,提出了一种基于SaaS模式的VTS综合效能评估云平台的总体架构,设计了适用于该架构的业务管理流程,采用UML建模工具对该平台进行了设计建模,并实现了该平台。已实现的平台为各评估管理部门独立在线实施VTS综合效能评估提供了解决方法,省去了各评估部门独立建设VTS综合效能评估信息化系统在基础设施和应用软件开发方面的重复投入,大大降低了评估的工作量,节省了评估的人力、物力和财力,提升了评估的效率,为VTS运营效能评估提供了科学的支撑平台。     

第十二届深水操作会议和展览会(英文)

正November 4-6,2014Moody Gardens HotelConvention Center/Galveston,TX The Deepwater Operations Conference and Exhibition is celebrating its 12th anniversary this year.This growing event will continue the tradition of excellence in addressing operational challenges involved in developing deepwater resources.We will return to the Moody Gardens Hotel and Convention Center on November 5-7,2014 in Galveston,Texas.     

The 11th International Conference on Hydrodynamics (ICHD 2014)

正19–24 October 2014 SingaporeCONFERENCE THEMES The overall aim of the ICHD Conference is to provide a forum for participants from around the world to review,discuss and present the latest developments in the broad discipline of hydrodynamics and fluid mechanics.The first International Conference on Hydrodynamics(ICHD)was initiated in 1994 in Wuxi,China.Since then,9 more ICHD conferences were held subsequently in Hong Kong,Seoul,Yokohama,Tainan,Perth,Ischia,Nantes,Shanghai and St Petersburg.Evidently the ICHD conference has become an important event among academics,researchers,engineers and operators,working in the fields closely related to the science and technology of hydrodynamics.The 11th ICHD will be held in Singapore in 2014.     

33rd International Conference on Ocean,Offshore and Arctic Engineering （OMAE2014）

正San Francisco,California,June 8-13,2014.OMAE 2014 is the ideal forum for researchers,engineers,managers,technicians and students from the scientific and industrial communities from around the world to:·meet and present advances in technology and its scientific support;·to exchange ideas and experiences whilst promoting technological progress and its application in industry·to promote international cooperation in ocean,offshore and arctic engineering.In line with the tradition of excellence of previous OMAE conferences,more than 900 technical papers are planned for presentation.Outreach for Engineers Specialty Forum This Specialty Forum is designed for students and professionals who may not be familiar with the Ocean and Offshore industry,as well as those who have just recently specialized in this field.     

Catalyzing Coastal Management in Kenya and Zanzibar: Building Capacity and Commitment

Site-based projects were initiated in Chawka Bay-Paje, Zanzibar, and Nyali-Bamburi-Shanzu, Kenya, to demonstrate the benefits of an integrated coastal management (ICM) approach for addressing coastal issues such as tourism development and enhancement of resource-dependent village economies in eastern Africa. A two-year, multidonor project used three primary strategies to make rapid, but sustainable, progress toward ICM. These included using interagency government teams for ICM planning, adopting an internationally recognized framework for ICM as a project ''road map,'' and explicitly incorporating capacity-building strategies into all aspects of the project. Within two years, integrated ICM action strategies, prepared through participatory processes, were being implemented at both sites, and both teams were working to expand the scale and scope of ICM in their nation. More importantly, the project helped create committed, capable, interagency groups that continue to work together to address urgent ICM issues.     

A simplified method for reliability- and integrity-based design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems

This paper presents a simplified method for the reliability- and the integrity-based optimal design of engineering systems and its application to offshore mooring systems. The design of structural systems is transitioning from the conventional methods, which are based on factors of safety, to more advanced methods, which require calculation of the failure probability of the designed system for each project. Using factors of safety to account for the uncertainties in the capacity (strength) or demands can lead to systems with different reliabilities. This is because the number and arrangement of components in each system and the correlation of their responses could be different, which could affect the system reliability. The generic factors of safety that are specified at the component level do not account for such differences. Still, using factors of safety, as a measure of system safety, is preferred by many engineers because of the simplicity in their application. The aim of this paper is to provide a simplified method for design of engineering systems that directly involves the system annual failure probability as a measure of system safety, concerning system strength limit state. In this method, using results of conventional deterministic analysis, the optimality factors for an integrity-based optimal design are used instead of generic safety factors to assure the system safety. The optimality factors, which estimate the necessary change in average component capacities, are computed especially for each component and a target system annual probability of system failure using regression models that estimate the effect of short and long term extreme events on structural response. Because in practice, it is convenient to use the return period as a measure to quantify the likelihood of extreme events, the regression model in this paper is a relationship between the component demands and the annual probability density function corresponding to every return period. This method accounts for the uncertainties in the environmental loads and structural capacities, and identifies the target mean capacity of each component for maximizing its integrity and meeting the reliability requirement. In addition, because various failure modes in a structural system can lead to different consequences (including damage costs), a method is introduced to compute optimality factors for designated failure modes. By calculating the probability of system failure, this method can be used for risk-based decision-making that considers the failure costs and consequences. The proposed method can also be used on existing structures to identify the riskiest components as part of inspection and improvement planning. The proposed method is discussed and illustrated considering offshore mooring systems. However, the method is general and applicable also to other engineering systems. In the case study of this paper, the method is first used to quantify the reliability of a mooring system, then this design is revised to meet the DNV recommended annual probability of failure and for maximizing system integrity as well as for a designated failure mode in which the anchor chains are the first components to fail in the system.     

含裂纹钢板复合材料修补强度和刚度数值分析

用ANSYS有限元分析软件对复合材料补片修复含边裂纹和中心裂纹钢板的强度和刚度进行了数值分析.引入相对刚度的概念,研究了钻有止裂孔裂纹的长度对损伤钢板相对刚度的影响,分析了损伤钢板刚度复合材料贴片修补效果;引入屈服载荷提高率的概念,分析了损伤钢板强度的修复效果.     

混凝土道路、堆场面层裂缝的产生与防治

从混凝土道路、堆场的各个结构层分析裂缝产生的原因,并针对性地说明预防措施,阐述裂缝维修方法。     

舰艇反鱼雷技术

对目前舰艇反鱼雷技术中的非杀伤、软杀伤和硬杀伤等比较先进的手段进行了阐述,并在此基础上分析研究了舰艇反鱼雷技术的发展趋势。     

利比亚米苏拉塔市萨瓦瓦区5000套住宅项目中心区设计

从确定符合项目实际情况的设计原则入手,通过利比亚米苏拉塔市萨瓦瓦住宅区中心区总体布局和建筑设计两个方面的设计实践,探讨了"传统、现代与文脉"这一当今时代无法回避的文化议题。并且针对具有鲜明文化、宗教和气候特征的建筑设计的特点、方法与风格进行了总结,为今后的实践提供借鉴。     

Community-Based Management for Sustainable Fisheries Resources in Phang-nga Bay,Thailand

Fishing communities, the Government of Thailand Department of Fisheries, local nongovermnental organizations, universities, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and FAO's Bay of Bengal Program have undertaken a partnership in management of Phang-nga Bay's coastal resources. It is the first project of its kind in Thailand, and although still in the early stages, offers insights that may contribute to our knowledge of how we can improve our management of coastal resources, including the importance of (1) building relationships within the governance process; (2) combining education, enforcement, and economic incentives to achieve compliance; (3) implementing solutions early; and (4) government support of community-based decisions. These insights reinforce trends emerging in other coastal management projects in the Asian region.