共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 723 毫秒
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为了对《珠江口区域溢油应急计划》提供决策支持,在国内外相关研究成果基础上,针对珠江口海域的特点,研究开发了先进实用的"珠江口区域海上溢油动态预报信息系统",综合了三维潮流模型、三维溢油扩散模型、溢油风化模型、应急反应模型、以及电子海图、地理信息系统(GIS)、数据库等关键技术。该系统可以预测模拟并可视化显示海上溢油的漂移扩散和性质变化过程,同时显示环境敏感区和应急人员设备分布等相关信息。实际溢油应用案例表明,该系统的预报模拟结果与现场实际情况完全相符,能有效地提高海上溢油污染事故的应急决策效率。 相似文献
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由于溢油扩散漂移跟时间、地点、数量及相应的风、流等众多不确定的随机因素有关,油膜的漂移过程是极其复杂的。本文从油品装卸码头风险事故识别、溢油事故统计与概率以及源强确定等方面对拟建码头进行分析,针对不同风况条件下,对码头溢油漂移轨迹进行预测分析,结果显示,由风和海流(或河流)引起的油膜运动过程中,在流场、风速等条件一定时,风向是影响溢油运动轨迹的主要因素。为码头的运营以及管理提供技术依据。 相似文献
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A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model. 相似文献
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Manuel Gonzlez Luis Ferrer Adolfo Uriarte Agurtzane Urtizberea Ainhoa Caballero 《Journal of Marine Systems》2008,72(1-4):178
This contribution describes the procedure used during the Prestige oil-spillage event, by means of an Operational Oceanography System, and the behaviour of the present prediction tools (hydrodynamic and dispersion models) applied to it. The accuracy of these tools is estimated by a reanalysis of field data transmitted by a sea surface drifting buoy, released at the time of the oil spill. The numerical models applied were the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), fed by the available six-hourly NCEP atmospheric information, together with a Lagrangian Particle-Tracking Model (LPTM). ROMS has been used to estimate the current fields for the Bay of Biscay, whilst the LPTM has provided the oil spill trajectories. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the numerical models depends upon the quality of the meteorological input data. In this case, the current fields at the sea surface, derived by ROMS, have been underestimated by the wind fields of the NCEP reanalysis data. An efficient calibration of these wind fields, with data provided by the Gascony buoy (fixed oceanic and atmospheric station), achieves more realistic looking results; this is reflected in the comparison between the buoy trajectory predicted numerically and the tracked movements of the drifting buoy. 相似文献
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The CAMCAT oil spill forecasting system is presented in this paper, and an evaluation of the impact of errors in the forcing fields over its forecasts is carried out. The system is formed by several independent modules which provide forecasts of winds, currents and waves to an oil spill module which predicts the evolution of the spill.The typical twin-experiments experience is used paying special attention to a realistic characterization of the errors when perturbing the forcing fields. The results suggest that errors in the wind and current fields are the main limiting factor for the quality of the oil spill forecasts. The pollutant identification is also crucial to determine the final vertical position and characteristics of the product. 相似文献
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近年来,海上溢油事故时有发生,造成了严重的环境污染。卫星遥感监视系统能够对海面溢油进行有效监视,对船舶非法排污行为产生威慑作用。文中重点介绍了卫星遥感监视系统的由来和在海事执法中的应用,特别是2009年以来常规监视工作的开展,为海事执法提供了新的高科技手段。 相似文献