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2010年12月2日,三峡库区巴东船舶溢油应急设备库进行现场演练,其效果达到设计要求,至此三峡库区重庆至巴东等5处防污设备库已建成.这标志着三峡库区已有专业船舶溢油应急设备,防污应急能力明显提升。 相似文献
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船舶溢油事故已成为导致海洋污染重要的因素之一,采用科学方法对船舶溢油风险进行有效的预测与评估具有重要意义.将船舶溢油风险分为操作性溢油风险与事故性溢油风险两类,通过分析历史数据与借助专家经 验识别风险因素,构建了船舶溢油风险的贝叶斯网络模型和条件概率表CPT,并利用HUGIN软件进行了概率推理和风险因素灵敏度分析,定量评估了船舶溢油风险,找出了影响最突出的风险因素.将贝叶斯网络模型应用于我国沿海港口水域,得出两类船舶溢油风险概率分别为0.013 8和0.000 3,指出了加燃油、装卸油品、人员疏忽和船舶密度等风险因素对船舶溢油风险影响最突出. 相似文献
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本文利用国家环境保护总局1996~2003年长江三峡工程生态与环境监测公报所获得的资料,着重对三峡库区船舶流动污染源监控、船舶污染途径和船舶防污染措施等方面进行了比较全面的分析.通过数据分析,得到近年来船舶污染源的变化规律和影响因素,指出船舶污染中油类污染物已经成为三峡库区水污染的最主要来源.针对三峡大坝建成以后的库区船舶航行现状,提出了有关加强三峡库区船舶污染监控及其防治的一些看法. 相似文献
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根据长江三峡库区船舶定线制的设计现状,结合影响库区船舶定线制设计因素,分析在库区船舶定线制运行中,就大小型船舶的分流、通航分道宽度的设计、"一线两制"的衔接及库区船舶定线制的规划等问题进行探讨. 相似文献
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船舶溢油事故不仅会造成经济损失,还会对海洋环境造成严重破坏。进行船舶溢油风险评估和预测,防止船舶溢油事故的发生具有重要意义。大量的统计数据表明,船舶溢油事故的发生与船舶因素、环境因素和人为因素等密切相关。因此,进行船舶溢油事故风险评估时必须要综合考虑多种因素的占比和概率。本文采用灰色理论技术建立船舶溢油风险评估模型,结合海域实测数据进行模型的修正,实现了海域内船舶溢油风险的评估和预测。 相似文献
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根据大型船舶出坞的要求,建立了船舶出坞过程仿真数学模型,包括船舶出坞操纵的基本模型、水动力模型以及拖轮等的作用力计算模型.编程计算了大型船舶出坞过程中的环境载荷,对大型船舶出坞过程进行仿真预报.以17.5万吨好望角型散货船为例,计算了该船受到的总的环境外载荷,并对该船出坞运动轨迹进行仿真预报. 相似文献
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小样本情况下的船舶溢油事故风险评价研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
船舶溢油风险评价是一项复杂的多因素问题,是船舶溢油应急管理的关键环节.作为智能搜索算法的代表理论,BP神经网络被认为是进行不确定风险评价的较好方法之一,然而船舶溢油事故属于小样本事件,统计数据往往难以满足BP神经网络要求的样本容量.针对这一困境,首先提出一种利用B样条最小二乘理论的数据拟合法,显著增加样本数.其次,根据船舶溢油特点建立了基于BP神经网络的船舶溢油风险评价模型.最后以上海港近年发生的10起溢油事故为实例,检验了模型的可行性. 相似文献
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A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model. 相似文献
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分析油船溢油的主要原因,根据系统分析和层次分析相结合的原则建立油船溢油风险评价的多级评价指标体系,运用模糊数学中层次分析法结合对专家调查问卷的结果,综合分析给出油船溢油风险评价各指标的权重。将所建立的模型应用到实际油船,给出降低风险的措施。 相似文献
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Although counteracting environmental programmes and policies have been strengthened, large oil spills still occur at irregular intervals. The total oil spill costs and their compensations have attracted much interest from various parties, such as local stakeholders, and state and federal governments. This paper addresses five major cost categories whose aggregations are expected to cover the overall direct and indirect costs after the release of an oil spill. Among them, research costs should not be neglected, since they tend to be high if public attention has been drawn to the case. Through an examination of the relationship between the total oil spill costs and their admissible claims, we found that:
- admissible claims do not cover the overall costs of the oil spill, and
- admissible claims cannot be compensated in full in the case of large spills.
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模糊综合评价法在船舶溢油事故定级中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对船舶溢油事故定级很有必要.通过模糊数学的方法,建立船舶溢油事故定级的评判模型,为事故定级评判提供了依据.通过实例,给出了具体的评价过程,证明该方法对于船舶溢油事故定级有借鉴作用,但此方法尚处于研究阶段. 相似文献