首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
In this paper we introduce, for the first time, a methodology from the most recent literature of finance to reveal the duration of shipping cycles and then show the benefit of the use of this information to make more successful shipping loans. This is so as banks are willing to finance, during boom periods, shipping loans for new buildings but by this way ‘create’ oversupply and thus depress the freight market by their own actions. The information about cycles, especially their forecasting, is mostly important as shipping loans are based on project financing/cash flow financing, which means that ship revenue is of utmost importance. The Rescaled Range Analysis is applied here to 379 monthly freight trips—made stationary—between 1971 and 2002 (July), due to Hurst 1 Hurst, HE. 1950. Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. April1950. pp.770808. American Society of Civil Engineers. Paper No. 2447 [Google Scholar] and elaborated and popularized by Mandelbrot 2 Mandelbrot, BB. 1975. Stochastic models for the earth's relief, the shape and the fractal dimensions of the coastlines, and the number-area rule for islands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 1975, USA 72. pp.38253828. [Crossref] [Google Scholar]. The most important effect, however, is that shipping freight series exhibit non-normality and long-run dependence rendering the use of random walk models such as GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) problematic. Thus an adequate literature review is carried out with criticism against the models used. The cycles have been calculated as equal to 4.5 years and 2.25 years. This is almost compatible with the most recent paper of Stopford 3 Stopford, M. 21 September 2001. “Forecasting the dry bulk, tanker and container markets”. In Maritime Cyprus 21 September,  [Google Scholar]. The Hurst exponent was found equal to 0.93, alternating over the periods examined (0.65, 0.73, 0.62, 0.59 and 0.55) and indicating long-term persistence but seriously away from normal/random walk domain. Most studies have said the same using the Jarque--Bera test for normality but provided no alternative.  相似文献   

2.
In container port performance evaluation, a group of ports in one country is always significantly different from a group of ports in another country. This is noticed as the heterogeneity of port performance. It is therefore necessary to further investigate the impact of the different groups on efficiency evaluation of ports. The cross-evaluation method is a DEA extension tool to identify best performing DMUs and to rank DMUs using cross efficiency scores linked to all DMUs. A factor that possibly reduces the usefulness of the cross efficiency evaluation method is that cross efficiency scores may not be unique due to the presence of alternative optima. Doyle and Green 1 Doyle, J and Green, R. 1994. Efficiency and cross efficiency in DEA: Derivations, meanings and uses. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 45: 567578. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] propose the use of secondary goals to deal with the non-uniqueness issue by the aggressive/benevolent model formulations. This article extends the model of Doyle and Green by considering the groups of DMUs in the determination of final cross efficiency. A new approach based on cross efficiency evaluation method is developed and applied to efficiency analysis of 28 container ports from 12 countries in Asia. A comparative study between traditional and newly proposed methods is conducted.  相似文献   

3.
The geoduck clam fishery, worth approximately CDN $40 million 1 US $ equivalence: 35 million (Bank of Canada exchange rate on February 1, 2006). in annual landed value, is British Columbia's most valuable invertebrate fishery. This fishery has been co-managed by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and the Underwater Harvesters Association (UHA) since 1989. Earlier input control measures such as effort regulation, seasonal closures, and licenses failed to work effectively for more than ten years, resulting in excess fishing capacity, over harvesting, poor economic returns, and unsafe fishing practices. Output control measures such as the individual vessel quota system (IVQ) have, to some extent, proven successful in improving revenues, controlling excess fishing capacity, gaining compliance with regulations, and involving fishers in the joint decision-making processes. However, there are public concerns about a common property resource at risk of being dominated by a few UHA license holders. Additionally, there are concerns about the job losses resulting from IVQ implementation, as well as distribution and equity issues. This article traces and examines the policy context for fisheries management in the British Columbia (BC) geoduck fishery, discusses the major concerns surrounding the exploitation of long lived Methuselah's clams and concludes with areas for further research in sustaining this lucrative fishery.  相似文献   

4.
The Disability Discrimination Act (1995, amended 2005), Equality Act (2010 Equality Act. 2010. Equality Act. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/15/contents#openingWholeMod (accessed May 17, 2012) [Google Scholar]), EU Disability Action Plan (2003 –2010), and EU Disability Strategy (2010–2020) were designed to make equal opportunities a “reality.” As 16% of the EU population, is statutorily disabled there are considerable implications for beach management. Research examples of beach users include swimmers, anglers, etc. - but rarely people with learning disabilities (LD). This paper considered beach users with LD and their appreciation of three different coastal classifications in South Wales. Because of their disabilities, the research applied a participatory photo interpretation methodology (photovoice). A comparison of the LD ranking of beach issues was made with rankings provided by the general public at the same beaches. Results demonstrated some similarities between LD and general public coastal needs, but identified the need for specific considerations to be made by beach managers for LD users, including informed self-advocacy, use/application of signage, instructive access and a requirement for baseline information gathering. The research proposes an integrated coastal access model from which coastal management/gatekeepers can consider LD needs within coastal strategies. Finally, findings highlight the use of photovoice in coastal research projects and the need for innovative methodological considerations when researching certain groups.  相似文献   

5.
We investigated the difference in fatigue behaviour between the aluminium alloys A5083-O and A5083-H321, which are used as structural components in ships and high speed craft. We obtained S–N curves for the base materials and the welded joints made of A5083-O. The relationships between the fatigue crack propagation rates and the stress intensity factor ranges ΔK, ΔK eff and ΔK RPG (Toyosada et al. in Int J Fatigue 26(9):983–992, 2004) were determined. Additionally, the evolution of fatigue crack growth for the base materials and the welded joints made of A5083-O was measured. We also carried out numerical simulations of fatigue crack growth for both base metals and their welded joints made of A5083-O. The difference in fatigue crack growth behaviour for each alloy and the validity of the numerical simulations of fatigue crack growth based on the RPG stress criterion (Toyosada et al. 2004) in the base materials and their welded joints was investigated.  相似文献   

6.
Monte Carlo analyses are generally considered the standard for uncertainty analysis. While accurate, these analyses can be expensive computationally. Recently, polynomial chaos has been proposed as an alternative approach to the estimation of uncertainty distributions (Hosder et al. A non-intrusive polynomial chaos method for uncertainty propagation in CFD simulations. In: 44th AIAA aerospace sciences meeting and exhibit, Reno, Nevada, 2006; Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). This approach works by representing the function as a series of orthogonal polynomials; the weights for which can be calculated via several methods. Previous studies have demonstrated the usefulness of this technique for comparatively simple systems such as parametric roll modeled by the Mathieu equation with normally distributed parameter values (Wu et al. Uncertainty analysis for parametric roll using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. In: Proceedings of the 12th international ship stability workshop, Washington, DC, USA, 2011). In the present work, a polynomial chaos method is applied to a nonlinear computational ship dynamics model with normally distributed input parameters. Test cases were selected where parametric roll was expected to potentially occur. The resulting probability distributions are compared to the results of a Monte Carlo analysis. In general, these results demonstrate good agreement between Monte Carlo simulation and polynomial chaos in the absence of capsize with significant computation gains found with polynomial chaos. Overall, we conclude that polynomial chaos is an effective tool for reducing simulation time costs when studying parametric roll, and potentially other ship dynamics phenomena, particularly in the absence of capsize-like bifurcations.  相似文献   

7.
One outcome of globalization is an increasing number of seafarers, who seldom are members of the same crew two voyages in a row and must cooperate with seafarers from many countries (Progoulaki and Roe WMU J Marit Affairs 10:7–23, 2011). This situation challenges the level of social capital on board, i.e., the resources inherent in network cooperation associated with norms of reciprocity and trust (Putnam 2000: 19). Fragmentized “blue” social capital should, however, be restored, as work performance depends on the quality of cooperation among crew members horizontally, as well as between crew members and the shipping company vertically. Drawing on anthropological fieldwork data from four Danish international ships, the purpose of this paper is to offer a new theoretical framework for analyzing cooperation among crews. Our inductive empirical findings suggest that a balance between three types of social capital—bonding, bridging and linking—is needed to achieve a high-performing work system (Gittell et al. Organ Sci 21(2):490–506, 2010). Hence, the main actors within the shipping sector should take “blue” social capital into account to increase work efficiency and economic performance.  相似文献   

8.
9.
For an accurate evaluation of the increase in skin friction due to various surface topographies on ships, i.e. plate roughness, coatings, or bio fouling, both experimental measurements and a numerical evaluation of those measurements are necessary. The measurements are necessary as no other practical method exists to evaluate the skin friction coefficient on most surface topographies, and numerical evaluation is required to compute the roughness effects of varying ship types and speeds. Therefore, a method for measuring the skin friction coefficient for bio-fouled and structured surfaces at full-scale friction velocity is presented, and a validation of the design and measuring procedures is given. For the ship frictional resistance calculations, the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code ShipFlow has been modified to take the added friction into account.  相似文献   

10.
Coastal areas are under increasing pressure driven by demands for coastal space, primarily though population growth, in migration and the need for space for socioeconomic activities. The pressures and associated changes to the coastal environment need to be managed to ensure long-term sustainability. South Africa has enacted an Integrated Coastal Management Act (ICM Act) to facilitate dedicated management of its coastal environment. The implementation has been met with a number of challenges, primarily relating to financial and human capacity constraints, particularly at the local government level. Given that the ICM Act devolves powers to local government, it is imperative that implementation challenges be addressed. This paper focuses on KwaZulu-Natal, one of four South African coastal regions, which is a renowned tourist destination and home to 11.1 million people (Statistics South Africa 2015 Statistics South Africa. 2015. Mid-Year Population Estimates. Statistical release P0302. Pretoria, South Africa: Statistics South Africa. [Google Scholar]). This paper considers the state of coastal management, as well as implementation challenges being experienced at a local governance level, and highlights ways to address these. Data were acquired through questionnaire surveys and semistructured interviews. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to identify relevant ICM issues and concerns and develop potential actions for improving the implementation of coastal management activities and the ICM Act. In the assessment of the ICM governance and implementation to date, a key concern identified was a general lack of coastal management knowledge among officials. It was specifically identified that knowledgeable management and capacity-building required championing from the provincial government in order to more efficiently and effectively implement the objectives of the ICM Act through an improved understanding of the coastal environment, its functioning and management.  相似文献   

11.
We address in this article, how to calculate the restoring characteristic and the excitation of a nonlinear forced oscillating system. Under the assumption that the forced nonlinear oscillator has a periodic solution with period \(T=2\pi / \omega\), we constructed a system of linear equations by introducing time-dependent multipliers. The periodicity assumption helps simplify the system of linear equations. The stability and uniqueness are also presented for the inverse problem. Numerical testing is conducted to show the effectiveness of our presented methodology.  相似文献   

12.
A simple approach is described to estimate the wave power absorption potential of submerged devices known to cause wave focusing and flow enhancement. In particular, the presence of a flow-through power take-off (PTO) system, such as low-head turbines, can be accounted for. The wave radiation characteristics of an appropriately selected Lagrangian element (LE) in the fluid domain are first determined. In the limit of a vanishing mass, the LE reduces to a patch of distributed normal dipoles. The hydrodynamic coefficients of this virtual object are then input in a standard equation of motion where the effect of the PTO can be represented, for example, as a dashpot damping term. The process is illustrated for a class of devices recently proposed by Carter and Ertekin (2011), although in a simplified form. Favorable wave power absorption is shown for large ratios of the LE wave radiation coefficient over the LE added mass coefficient. Under optimal conditions, the relative flow reduction from the PTO theoretically lies between 0.50 and 1 2 ≈ 0.71, with lower values corresponding to better configurations. Wave power capture widths, the sensitivity of results to PTO damping and sample spectral calculations at a typical site in Hawaiian waters are proposed to further illustrate the versatility of the method.  相似文献   

13.
The strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS) is able to provide continuous estimates of a vehicle??s velocity, position and attitude. As a rule, the SIMS component known as a high accuracy strapdown inertial measurement unit (SIMU) is an exceptionally expensive system. Less expensive SIMUs comprised of low cost sensors suffer from degraded performance, but this can be compensated for, in part, by addition of a velocity data recorder (VDR) to accompany the SINS. In this configuration, the need frequently arises to align the SINS of a submarine to in order to avoid a long run-up of the inertial system before a start command is issued. This in-motion alignment (IMA) can be accomplished by integrating SINS data with some external aiding source, such as the VDR, by using some form of measurement matching method. Accordingly, this paper demonstrates a consistent IMA scheme for a low-cost SIMU using a robust Kalman/ $ H_{\infty } $ filter structure. An error model of the SINS is derived in which the state vector includes attitude, velocity, position and sensor errors. Velocity information from the VDR is used as a measurement to the proposed filter. All significant equations concerning navigation are presented in conjunction with argument. Results show the advantages of the approach and emphasize diverse aspects of the SINS.  相似文献   

14.
15.
16.
A set of experiments is carried out in a towing tank to study the effects of the curvature of perforated plates on the wave reflection coefficient (C r ). The curvature of a perforated plate can be changed by rotating a reference perforated plate aboutits origin according to the parabolic equation y=?x 2. A plunger-type wave maker is used to generate regular waves. The reflection coefficients are calculated using Goda and Suzuki’s (1976) method. The results are compared with those of vertical or sloped passive wave absorbers. The comparison shows that a perforated plate with a curved profile is highly efficient in terms of reducing the wave reflection coefficient. A correlation is established to estimate the reflection coefficient of curved perforated plates as a function of both flow and geometry characteristics.  相似文献   

17.
This study examines the hydrodynamic performance of multiple-row vertical slotted breakwaters. We developed a mathematical model based on an eigenfunction expansion method and a least squares technique for Stokes second-order waves. The numerical results obtained for limiting cases of double-row and triple-row walls are in good agreement with results of previous studies and experimental results. Comparisons with experimental measurements of the reflection, transmission, and dissipation coefficients (C R , C T , and C E ) for double-row walls show that the proposed mathematical model adequately reproduces most of the important features. We found that for double-row walls, the C R increases with increasing wave number, kd, and with a decreasing permeable wall part, dm. The C T follows the opposite trend. The C E slowly increases with an increasing kd for lower kd values, reaches a maximum, and then decreases again. In addition, an increasing porosity of dm would significantly decrease the C R , while increasing the C T . At lower values of kd, a decreasing porosity increases the C E , but for high values of kd, a decreasing porosity reduces the C E . The numerical results indicate that, for triple-row walls, the effect of the arrangement of the chamber widths on hydrodynamic characteristics is not significant, except when kd<0.5. Double-row slotted breakwaters may exhibit a good wave-absorbing performance at kd>0.5, where by the horizontal wave force may be smaller than that of a single wall. On the other hand, the difference between double-row and triple-row vertical slotted breakwaters is marginal.  相似文献   

18.
19.
In this paper we report the conclusion of a research project dedicated to pricing regimes in public-private partnership contracts for the provision of transport infrastructure (Macário et al., 2009). Several elements have been brought to the bulk of knowledge that supports the design and implementation of public-private partnership in the transport sector. These developments have been achieved in the following domain:
Understand difficulties of price setting within the PPP environment, given the potential conflict of interest among the different parties engaged, go beyond the discussion of first best versus second-best price setting mechanisms.
Understand the role of government and regulators in the performance of a PPP.
Translate the issue of asymmetries of information between parties into a risk taking language.
Devise alternative contractual designs that will enable competitive price setting.
Understand that a structural element is missing to conciliate the views of the different stakeholders over a PPP: a bridge between infrastructure costs and charges.
The objective of this paper is to overview the main challenges ahead of transport infrastructure pricing, considering the current and likely future policies as well as the field constraints. Moreover, a proposal is formulated to overcome some of the current pitfalls associated to transport infrastructure pricing.  相似文献   

20.
For the theoretical consideration of a system for reducing skin friction, a mathematical model was derived to represent, in a two-phase field, the effect on skin friction of the injection of micro air bubbles into the turbulent boundary layer of a liquid stream. Based on the Lagrangian method, the equation of motion governing a single bubble was derived. The random motion of bubbles in a field initially devoid of bubbles was then traced in three dimensions to estimate void fraction distributions across sections of the flow channel, and to determine local bubble behavior. The liquid phase was modeled on the principle of mixing length. Assuming that the force exerted on the liquid phase was equal to the fluid drag generated by bubble slip, an equation was derived to express the reduction in turbulent shear stress. Corroborating experimental data were obtained from tests using a cavitation tunnel equipped with a slit in the ceiling from which bubbly water was injected. The measurement data provided qualitative substantiation of the trend shown by the calculated results with regard to the skin friction ratio between cases with and without bubble injection as function of the distance downstream from the point of bubble injection.List of symbols B law of wall constant - C f local coefficient of skin friction - C f0 local coefficient of skin friction in the absence of bubbles - d b bubble diameter [m] - g acceleration of gravity [m/s2] - k 1 k4 proportional coefficient - k L turbulent energy of the liquid phase [m2/s2] - L representative length [m] - l b mean free path of a bubble [m] - m A added mass of a single bubble [kg] - m b mass of a single bubble [kg] - N x ,N y ,N z force perpendicular to the wall or ceiling exerted on a bubble adhering to that wall or ceiling [N] - P absolute pressure [Pa] - Q G rate of air supply [/min] - q L (i) turbulent velocity at the ith time increment [m/s] - R> ex Reynolds number defined by Eq. 32 - T *L integral time scale of the liquid phase [s] - U velocity of the main stream [m/s] - ,¯v,¯w time-averaged velocity components [m/s] - u,v,w turbulent velocity components [m/s] - û L ,vL root mean square values of liquid phase turbulence components in thex- and y-directions [m/s] - V volume of a single bubble [m3] - X,Y,Z components of bubble displacement [m] - x s ,y s ,z s coordinate of a random point on a sphere of unit diameter centered at the coordinate origin - root mean square of bubble displacement in they-direction in reference to the turbulent liquid phase velocity [m] - local void fraction - m mean void fraction in a turbulent region - regular random number - R v increment of the horizontal component of the force acting on a single bubble, defined by Eq. 22 [N] - t time increment [s] - 1 reduction of turbulent stress [N/m2] - L rate of liquid energy dissipation [m2/s3] - m coefficient defined by Eq. 30 - law of wall constant in the turbulent region in absence of bubbles - 1 law of wall constant in the turbulent region in presence of bubbles  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号