Future challenges for transport infrastructure pricing in PPP arrangements

In this paper we report the conclusion of a research project dedicated to pricing regimes in public-private partnership contracts for the provision of transport infrastructure (Macário et al., 2009). Several elements have been brought to the bulk of knowledge that supports the design and implementation of public-private partnership in the transport sector. These developments have been achieved in the following domain:

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Understand difficulties of price setting within the PPP environment, given the potential conflict of interest among the different parties engaged, go beyond the discussion of first best versus second-best price setting mechanisms.

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Understand the role of government and regulators in the performance of a PPP.

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Translate the issue of asymmetries of information between parties into a risk taking language.

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Devise alternative contractual designs that will enable competitive price setting.

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Understand that a structural element is missing to conciliate the views of the different stakeholders over a PPP: a bridge between infrastructure costs and charges.

The objective of this paper is to overview the main challenges ahead of transport infrastructure pricing, considering the current and likely future policies as well as the field constraints. Moreover, a proposal is formulated to overcome some of the current pitfalls associated to transport infrastructure pricing.     

Study on the preciseness of hot spot stress of web-stiffened cruciform welded joints derived from shell finite element analyses

A new simple and accurate shell FE-based structural Hot Spot Stress (HSS) determination method for web-stiffened cruciform joints has been proposed. Local stress of welded joints in full-scale bulk carrier (BC)’s lower stool models subject to bending and pressure loadings are examined. HSSs determined by the proposed method are compared with those derived by Lotsberg’s method and the conventional 0.5t-1.5t extrapolation. As results, following are found:

(1)

The local stress of full-scale BC lower stool models with various stool angle and plate thickness can be calculated accurately solely from shell FE results by means of the proposed method.

(2)

HSSs of welded joints in full-scale BC lower stool models subject to bending and pressure loadings derived by the proposed method show good agreement with the target HSSs determined from fine solid models. This demonstrates the validity of the proposed method for actual ship structures under the real load.

(3)

The excessive safety allowance of HSS determined by the conventional 0.5t-1.5t extrapolation can be reduced substantially by adopting Lotsberg’s method or our proposal. The proposed HSS determination method gives more accurate estimates compared to Lotsberg’s method under the conditions chosen, and the application range of the proposed method is equal to or wider than Lotsberg’s method.

     

The development of the TIGRIS XL model: A bottom-up approach to transport, land-use and the economy

The project appraisal method in the Netherlands distinguishes direct effects, indirect distribution effects and indirect generative effects. Transport models are generally available for calculating the benefits of transport projects to travellers as part of the direct effects. The TIGRIS XL model, a Land-Use and Transport Interaction model, adds indirect distribution effects for the housing and labour market, by modelling changes in the spatial distribution of jobs and residents. This paper describes the current TIGRIS XL model and how it can be applied in the evaluation of transport projects. It refers to work done with the TIGRIS XL model to improve the calculation of the direct benefits by applying the so-called ‘logsum’ method. Finally it discusses ideas on how to extend the TIGRIS XL model to address indirect generative effects as well.The current TIGRIS XL model, its integration with the National Model System (the standard tool for the Dutch government to analyse the effects on passenger transport) and basic design principles are the starting point of such an exploration. These design principles include:

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an emphasis on detail, both spatial as well as in socio-economic segments, to account for differences in the availability of choice alternatives and in choice behaviour, and to provide impacts by region and socio-economic group;

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the requirement that the relationships used rest on an empirical foundation.

The post-processing methods proposed on this paper for the calculation of the direct benefits and indirect generative effects are consistent with these design principles. To calculate the indirect generative effects, a post-processing module is proposed which transforms changes in travel times and land-use into agglomeration effects. These agglomeration effects combine several of the generative effects, like scale economies, an increasing variety of products, labour market matches and knowledge spill-over. The effects of changes in the agglomeration indicator on productivity can be estimated with existing data sources, as was demonstrated in the UK (Graham, 2005).     

Programming, optimal pricing and partnership contract for infrastructures in PPPs

The development of various forms of public-private partnerships for the financing, building and operating of public infrastructure has not fundamentally altered the economic calculations involved. This chapter examines to what extent it is necessary, however, to change the way that government uses socio-economic and financial evaluations, whether to optimise investment programming or pricing. Ensuring a coherent match between these two types of optimisation can provide a principle for determining the optimal programming price.We begin by showing that when projects are financed by both users (toll revenues) and taxpayers (subsidies), it is socially beneficial to plan these investments on the basis of the net present value (NPV) provided by each unit of public money invested. This NPV/subsidy ratio must obviously be higher than the public-funding scarcity coefficient or else the investment would destroy more wealth than it would produce.One of the ways of improving this ratio is also to optimise the toll level, since increasing it can lower the subsidy but has an adverse impact on the user surplus, it is essential to set the optimal toll.In the case of an approved project considered in isolation, we show that the optimal toll depends upon the public-funding scarcity coefficient. If there is no scarcity, the optimal toll is zero. As public-funding becomes scarcer, the optimal toll draws closer to the toll that optimises revenue.In the case of a programme of several projects subject to budget constraint, we show that the optimal toll no longer depends upon the public-funding scarcity coefficient and that there are several scenarios depending on the relative values of the maximum revenue and the total cost of the project:

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when, whatever the toll, revenue can no longer cover over half of the cost, it is socially beneficial to choose not to levy any toll;

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when there is a toll that covers the total cost, the operator may be left free to set it at the level he sees fit, with the issue of how the profits are to be shared between the franchisee and the franchisor being settled separately;

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when the maximum revenue of the project falls between half and all of the total cost, the value of the toll that maximises the welfare function is lower than the revenue-maximising toll and must therefore be set for the private operator by government.

Thus, the partnership contract must be given a different content in these three cases of optimal pricing.

Preamble

Most of the theoretical studies devoted to optimising public investment programming and infrastructure pricing have, since the work of Jules Dupuit (1844), focused on the salient issues of the transport sector, even though this work was relevant to all sorts of public infrastructure. The analysis presented in this paper deals with transport economics, but in line with this tradition, is also applicable to any field in which public-funding is combined with commercial revenue. For example, the question of determining how the financing of an opera should be shared between taxpayers and opera-goers raises the same type of issues as the optimal combination of tolls and subsidies for financing a motorway project. This report will be focused on these issues. We shall see that certain precautions are called for in investment programming together with some new thinking on pricing principles.     

Experimental study on reflection coefficient of curved perforated plate

A set of experiments is carried out in a towing tank to study the effects of the curvature of perforated plates on the wave reflection coefficient (C _r ). The curvature of a perforated plate can be changed by rotating a reference perforated plate aboutits origin according to the parabolic equation y=?x ². A plunger-type wave maker is used to generate regular waves. The reflection coefficients are calculated using Goda and Suzuki’s (1976) method. The results are compared with those of vertical or sloped passive wave absorbers. The comparison shows that a perforated plate with a curved profile is highly efficient in terms of reducing the wave reflection coefficient. A correlation is established to estimate the reflection coefficient of curved perforated plates as a function of both flow and geometry characteristics.     

Ship resistance of quadramaran with various hull position configurations

Multihull ships are widely used for sea transportation, and those with four hulls are known as quadramarans. Hull position configurations of a quadramaran include the diamond, tetra, and slice. In general, multihull vessels traveling at high speeds have better hydrodynamic efficiency than monohull ships. This study aims to identify possible effects of various quadramaran hull position configurations on ship resistance for hull dimensions of 2 m length, 0.21 m breadth, and 0.045 m thickness. We conducted a towing test in which we varied the hull spacing and speed at Fr values between 0.08 and 0.62 and measured the total resistance using a load cell transducer. The experimental results reveal that the lowest total resistance was achieved with a diamond quadramaran configuration at Fr = 0.1-0.6 and an effective interference factor of up to 0.35 with S/L = 3/10 and R/L = 1/2 at Fr = 0.62.     

Added resistance acting on hull of a non ballast water ship

In this paper, added resistances acting on a hull of non ballast water ship(NBS) in high waves is discussed. The non ballast water ships were developed at the laboratory of the authors at Osaka Prefecture University, Japan. In the present paper, the performances of three kinds of bow shapes developed for the NBS were theoretically and experimentally investigated to find the best one in high waves. In previous papers, an optimum bow shape for the NBS was developed in calm water and in moderated waves. For a 2 m model for experiments and computations, the wave height is 0.02 m. This means that the wave height is 15% of the draft of the ship in full load conditions. In this paper, added resistances in high waves up to 0.07 m for a 2 m model or 53% of the full load draft are investigated. In such high waves linear wave theories which have been used in the design stage of a ship for a long time may not work well anymore, and experiments are the only effective tool to predict the added resistance in high waves. With the computations for waves, the ship is in a fully captured condition because shorter waves, λ/Lpp0.6, are assumed.     

Hydrodynamic performance of multiple-row slotted breakwaters

This study examines the hydrodynamic performance of multiple-row vertical slotted breakwaters. We developed a mathematical model based on an eigenfunction expansion method and a least squares technique for Stokes second-order waves. The numerical results obtained for limiting cases of double-row and triple-row walls are in good agreement with results of previous studies and experimental results. Comparisons with experimental measurements of the reflection, transmission, and dissipation coefficients (C _R , C _T , and C _E ) for double-row walls show that the proposed mathematical model adequately reproduces most of the important features. We found that for double-row walls, the C _R increases with increasing wave number, kd, and with a decreasing permeable wall part, dm. The C _T follows the opposite trend. The C _E slowly increases with an increasing kd for lower kd values, reaches a maximum, and then decreases again. In addition, an increasing porosity of dm would significantly decrease the C _R , while increasing the C _T . At lower values of kd, a decreasing porosity increases the C _E , but for high values of kd, a decreasing porosity reduces the C _E . The numerical results indicate that, for triple-row walls, the effect of the arrangement of the chamber widths on hydrodynamic characteristics is not significant, except when kd<0.5. Double-row slotted breakwaters may exhibit a good wave-absorbing performance at kd>0.5, where by the horizontal wave force may be smaller than that of a single wall. On the other hand, the difference between double-row and triple-row vertical slotted breakwaters is marginal.     

Spectral Wave Modeling in Very Shallow Water at Southern Coast of Caspian Sea

This study evaluates the capability of the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model (version 41.01) in predicting significant wave height and spectral peak energy content for swell waves in very shallow water of surf zone during depth-induced wave breaking and dissipation. The model results were compared with field measurements at five nearshore stations. The results demonstrated that some breaker index formulations were successful for significant wave height prediction in surf zones. However, an incorrect shape of the energy spectrum and overestimated near spectral peak energy content at shallow water stations were obtained using all of the embedded depth-induced wave breaking formulations in SWAN. The dependent breaker index on relative depth (K_pd) formulation, which was successful in predicting near spectral peak energy content, resulted in an average error of 30%. Finally, this formulation was modified to enhance the model performance in reproducing the spectral peak energy content.     

The interaction of oblique flexural gravity waves with a small bottom deformation on a porous ocean-bed: Green’s function approach

The interaction of oblique incident water waves with a small bottom deformation on a porous ocean-bed is examined analytically here within the framework of linear water wave theory. The upper surface of the ocean is assumed to be covered by an infinitely extended thin uniform elastic plate, while the lower surface is bounded by a porous bottom surface having a small deformation. By employing a simplified perturbation analysis, involving a small parameter δ(=1), which measures the smallness of the deformation, the governing Boundary Value Problem (BVP) is reduced to a simpler BVP for the first-order correction of the potential function. This BVP is solved using a method based on Green’s integral theorem with the introduction of suitable Green’s function to obtain the first-order potential, and this potential function is then utilized to calculate the first-order reflection and transmission coefficients in terms of integrals involving the shape function c(x) representing the bottom deformation. Consideration of a patch of sinusoidal ripples shows that when the quotient of twice the component of the incident field wave number propagating just below the elastic plate and the ripple wave number approaches one, the theory predicts a resonant interaction between the bed and the surface below the elastic plate. Again, for small angles of incidence, the reflected wave energy is more as compared to the other angles of incidence. It is also observed that the reflected wave energy is somewhat sensitive to the changes in the flexural rigidity of the elastic plate, the porosity of the bed and the ripple wave numbers. The main advantage of the present study is that the results for the values of reflection and transmission coefficients obtained are found to satisfy the energy-balance relation almost accurately.     

Investigation of springing in ship structures using experimental methods and 3-D hydroelastic theory

Large and long ships experience springing behavior. Depending on the trade routes and design of such ocean-going ships, wave-induced vibrations may be due to springing and whipping effects. In this paper, we address the wave-induced vibrations in an ultra-large ore carrier under fully loaded and ballast conditions. The experimental measurements from tests performed using a flexible model of the ship were compared with the numerical predictions from 3-D hydro-elastic theory (THAFTS) (Wu, Hydroelasticity of floating bodies. PH.D thesis, Brunel University, 1984). The measurements showed multiple frequencies between the encountered wave frequency and the 2-node bending frequency that occurred only in ballast conditions, whereas the springing vibrations were more apparent with forward speed under ballast conditions in both regular and irregular waves. The numerical method predicted the vertical bending moment quite well in the fully loaded condition but underestimated it in the ballast condition. This result was primarily due to an inability to capture the prediction of the multiple frequencies between the encountered wave frequency and the 2-node bending frequency. Using THAFTS, a new ship form with a deep draft was introduced, and this vessel was shown to reduce springing vibrations.     

南海北部湾台风浪数值模拟方法研究

对第三代近岸海浪数值模式SWAN控制方程进行简要介绍,并利用由藤田和高桥公式相互嵌套的方法提供了台风风场,用SWAN模式采用大小模型范围嵌套的方式对影响南海北部湾海域的8303号台风浪过程进行了模拟验证,并利用该模式预报了该海域在不同台风作用下的台风浪过程.结果表明,模拟结果与实际海浪观测资料吻合较好,计算预报结果可以为该海域台风浪防灾等提供较为重要的参考.     

The distribution of the benefits of waterfront reform

In this paper we introduce, for the first time, a methodology from the most recent literature of finance to reveal the duration of shipping cycles and then show the benefit of the use of this information to make more successful shipping loans. This is so as banks are willing to finance, during boom periods, shipping loans for new buildings but by this way ‘create’ oversupply and thus depress the freight market by their own actions. The information about cycles, especially their forecasting, is mostly important as shipping loans are based on project financing/cash flow financing, which means that ship revenue is of utmost importance. The Rescaled Range Analysis is applied here to 379 monthly freight trips—made stationary—between 1971 and 2002 (July), due to Hurst 1 Hurst, HE. 1950. Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. April1950. pp.770–808. American Society of Civil Engineers. Paper No. 2447 [Google Scholar] and elaborated and popularized by Mandelbrot 2 Mandelbrot, BB. 1975. Stochastic models for the earth's relief, the shape and the fractal dimensions of the coastlines, and the number-area rule for islands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 1975, USA 72. pp.3825–3828. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]. The most important effect, however, is that shipping freight series exhibit non-normality and long-run dependence rendering the use of random walk models such as GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) problematic. Thus an adequate literature review is carried out with criticism against the models used. The cycles have been calculated as equal to 4.5 years and 2.25 years. This is almost compatible with the most recent paper of Stopford 3 Stopford, M. 21 September 2001. “Forecasting the dry bulk, tanker and container markets”. In Maritime Cyprus 21 September,  [Google Scholar]. The Hurst exponent was found equal to 0.93, alternating over the periods examined (0.65, 0.73, 0.62, 0.59 and 0.55) and indicating long-term persistence but seriously away from normal/random walk domain. Most studies have said the same using the Jarque--Bera test for normality but provided no alternative.     

Classification criterion of narrow/wide ice-resistant conical structures based on direct measurements

Ice-induced structural vibration generally decreases with an increase in structural width at the waterline. Definitions of wide/narrow ice-resistant conical structures, according to ice-induced vibration, are directly related to structure width, sea ice parameters, and clearing modes of broken ice. This paper proposes three clearing modes for broken ice against conical structures: complete clearing, temporary ice pile up, and ice pile up. In this paper, sea ice clearing modes and the formation requirements of dynamic ice force are analyzed to explore criteria determining wide/narrow ice-resistant conical structures. According to the direct measurement data of typical prototype structures, primary quantitative criterion of the ratio of a cone width at waterline (D) to sea ice thickness (h) is proposed. If the ratio is less than 30 (narrow conical structure), broken ice is completely cleared and a dynamic ice force is produced; however, if the ratio is larger than 50 (wide conical structure), the front stacking of broken ice or dynamic ice force will not occur.     

Characteristics of bubble plumes, bubble-plume bubbles and waves from wind-steepened wave breaking

Observations of breaking waves, associated bubble plumes and bubble-plume size distributions were used to explore the coupled evolution of wave-breaking, wave properties and bubble-plume characteristics. Experiments were made in a large, freshwater, wind-wave channel with mechanical wind-steepened waves and a wind speed of 13 m s^− 1. Bubble plumes exhibited a wide range of bubble distributions, physical extent and dynamics. A classification scheme was developed based on plume extent and “optical density” which is the ability of a plume to optically obscure the image of the background until maximum penetration of the plume. Plumes were classified as either dense (obscure) or diffuse (no-obscure). For each class, the plume bubble population size distribution, Φ(r,t), where r is the bubble radius and t the time, was determined. Dense plumes have a large radius peak in Φ and thus are enhanced in large bubbles. Diffuse plumes are well-described by a weakly size decreasing Φ(r,t) for r < 1000 μm and a more strongly size decreasing Φ(r,t) for r > 1000 μm.The bubble-plume formation rate, P, for each class, wave-breaking rate and wave characteristics were measured with respect to fetch. Wave-breaking rate and intensity are strongly fetch-dependent. In general, the trends in P and wave breaking are similar, reaching a maximum at the fetch of maximum wave breaking. The ratio of P for dense to diffuse plumes is even more sensitive to the occurrence of the most intense wave breaking, where dense plume formation is the greatest.Using P and the bubble size population distributions for each plume class, the global bubble-plume, injection size distribution, Ψ_i(r), was calculated. The volume injection rate for the study area was 640 cm³ s^− 1 divided approximately equally between bubbles smaller and larger than r  1700 μm.     

Groups in DEA based cross-evaluation: An application to Asian container ports

In container port performance evaluation, a group of ports in one country is always significantly different from a group of ports in another country. This is noticed as the heterogeneity of port performance. It is therefore necessary to further investigate the impact of the different groups on efficiency evaluation of ports. The cross-evaluation method is a DEA extension tool to identify best performing DMUs and to rank DMUs using cross efficiency scores linked to all DMUs. A factor that possibly reduces the usefulness of the cross efficiency evaluation method is that cross efficiency scores may not be unique due to the presence of alternative optima. Doyle and Green 1 Doyle, J and Green, R. 1994. Efficiency and cross efficiency in DEA: Derivations, meanings and uses. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 45: 567–578. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] propose the use of secondary goals to deal with the non-uniqueness issue by the aggressive/benevolent model formulations. This article extends the model of Doyle and Green by considering the groups of DMUs in the determination of final cross efficiency. A new approach based on cross efficiency evaluation method is developed and applied to efficiency analysis of 28 container ports from 12 countries in Asia. A comparative study between traditional and newly proposed methods is conducted.     

The rationality of conference pricing and output policies. Part 2

In Part 1 ^{* *}Maritime Studies and Management (1975) Vol 3, No. 2, pp. 103–111. of this article a background to the economics of conference operation was provided, and conference fleet planning and single voyage costs were discussed. This part of the paper will analyse the economic objectives of conferences and will consider the implications of ending the conference princing structure. Some recommendations are also offered.     

非线性混合海况下近海风机塔筒底部载荷的动力响应

本文主要研究在非线性混合海况(即风浪和涌浪组合海况)下,以NREL 5MW_Baseline Monopile近海风机为研究对象,对其塔筒底部(基线)所受到的剪力和弯矩载荷的动力响应进行仿真。在近海风机的时域仿真中,选用了Ochi-Hubble六参数波浪谱,并编制了该谱的程序嵌入到FAST中进行编译。计算过程中,共进行了20次10 min的仿真分析。对于得到的短期载荷,给出了波高程,塔筒底部首尾向剪力和弯矩在线性与非线性不规则波作用下的时程曲线对比图。采用分块最大值法对每一次的短期载荷提取极值,并基于20次仿真所得的极值,给出了塔筒底部首尾向剪力与弯矩在线性与非线性不规则波作用下的超越概率曲线对比图。研究表明,在非线性混合海况下进行近海风机塔筒底部载荷的动力响应研究,计算结果对工程实际应用具有指导意义。