The relative efficiency and financial risk assessment of shipping companies

Since shipping companies are highly competitive, we ask whether financial risk assessment tools impact company performance and, therefore competitiveness and efficiency. Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) is used in the evaluation. Based on distinct features of the risk-return relationship, three cargo segments in the shipping industry are studied—dry bulk, liquid bulk, and containerized cargo. The influence of the risk assessment indicators on market and operational efficiency is subsequently determined using a panel regression to determine whether different asset allocation and risk management techniques improve the performance of shipping companies. In this analysis, 79 international shipping companies listed in Bloomberg Shipping Indices are included in the data collected from Thomson One for the period of 2001–2010. Efficiency estimation from the SFA shows that containerized cargo firms have better performance in both market and operating efficiencies. Operating efficiency performance is achieved by lowering liquidity. Market efficiency is improved by well-managed leverage level.     

散货集装化运输、装船工艺的发展趋势

为了提高生产效率,研发了散货集装化运输、装船工艺。分析这一新工艺形成的背景。将散货集装化运输、装船工艺与传统工艺比较,展示了新工艺的诸多优点。最后,对散货集装化运输、装船工艺与传统工艺的发展前景作了展望。     

国际干散货运输市场回顾与展望

2003年是国际干散货运输市场迄今为止表现最为强劲的一年。以中国进口铁矿石和日本进口煤炭为核心的需求空前高涨,谷物和小宗散货海运贸易也十分活跃,历史罕见的压港和低增长的新交船使运力供应高度紧张,市场出现严重的“结构性失调”,不仅夏季淡季不淡,表现火爆。而且在中国“十一”长假期间出现“井喷”行情,BDI指数一举冲破4 500点大关,较上一个历史高点1995年5月1日的2 352点高出2 000多点,三大船型运价水平均创历史新高。之后市场经过半个月的调整又再度发力,BDI再度越过4 700点大关,以完美的表现宣告了今年的结束。各权威机构对世界经济在2004年将加快发展已经基本达成共识,而目前在国际干散货运输市场中起着引擎作用的我国经济发展更是势头强劲,其钢铁工业步入高增长期,已成为不容争辩的事实,这无疑都为国际干散货运输市场提供了一个更加广阔的发展空间。运力方面虽然新交船数量略高,但船舶压港短时间内难以解决。因此,2004年的干散货运输市场总体形势看好。     

国际干散货航运市场回顾与展望

自2003年10月份以来,国际干散货航运市场表现十分强劲,但从2005年的BDI指数走势来看,这种高景气度已有明显的见顶迹象,对于国际干散货航运市场能否持续高涨的行情,说法众多不一。首先对国际干散货航运市场进行回顾,并针对与干散货航运市场关系密切的世界经济以及国际干散货航运市场供需两方面进行分析,最后对2006年国际干散货航运市场的发展加以展望。     

Asian hub/feeder nets: the dynamics of restructuring

The emergence of hub/feeder networks in the Singapore-Japan corridor through the 1970s and 1980s reflected not only the rapid growth of containerized cargo in regional Southeast and East Asia but also the exceptional importance of Far East/transPacific and Far East/Europe mainline shipping services in structuring these networks. This paper argues that the mid-1990s is a defining moment in the restructuring of these networks; that the period represents, in fact, a convergence of a number of different though related trends impacting on the regional shipping market. More particularly, continuing high growth rates of containerized cargo have not only spawned new ports but have also increased the proportion of ports handling threshold volumes of containers for which mainline calls, rather than handling thfeeder operations, are justified. Further, the quite dramatic retionalization of already large container shipping lines into mergers and alliances bestows a new level of market power that is able to underwrite major changes in shipping schedules, port rotations and feeder linkages. This paper speculates that these developments are generating, and will continue to generate new, hierarchically organized port/shipping networks in which high order networks will include high efficiency/high cost operations; and lower order networks will include a mix of hub and direct-call ports that will focus on different market segments.     

FFA在航运市场风险管理中的应用

随着国际干散货贸易的繁荣和运价波动性的加大,在过去几年里FFA市场也得到较大发展。分析国际干散货航运市场的不确定性,介绍远期运费协议(FFA)的含义及其在国际干散货航运市场中的发展情况,探讨FFA风险管理的作用,最后,面对航运市场较大的波动性,提出中国船东和租家必须学会利用FFA这一新的工具进行风险管理的建议。     

金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况与对策

2008年金融危机以来,世界经贸形势错综复杂,国际干散货船舶运输市场陷入低迷,BDI指数持续低谷盘整。研究了国际干散货运输需求情况和运力增长规模,剖析了国际干散货运价走势,并针对金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况,提出了金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输的发展对策。     

A transaction cost analysis of Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian shipping

The purpose of the article is to analyse the operation of shipping companies in Finland, Sweden and Norway cross-sectionwise in 1989-1991. These represent three different types of shipping operations in three neighbouring countries in Northern Europe. In the analysis, an apllication of the transaction cosr approach (TCA) is employed. It is shown that finnish shipping is usually very concentrated both in terms of geographical coverage, cargo composition and ownership. In cargo shipping, Finnish shipping firms mainly operate on the 'domestic' routes connecting Finland to the main European markets. Few Finnish firms are operating in highly competitive operations such as cruise shipping and liquid and dry bulk trades. Ownership in shipping is also often institutionalized rather than being in private, independent hands. In Sweden, the hierarchial governance of shipping is less than it is Finland. In certain worldwide trades, such as reefer and car carrier trades, the governance structure could be defined as hierarchial due to high asset specificity and high degree of specialization. In Norway, the shipping industry seems to be strongly market-oriented. The industry is composed of shipping companies, whose existence depends on their cost competitiveness on the shipping market, and is usually not backed up by exclusive hierarchial arrangements. Notable exceptions are the LNG/LPG and car carrier trades. The classification presented principle can easily be extended to other shipping countries, or companywise comparisions, as well.     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

Opportunities for increased profit and reduced cost and emissions by service differentiation within container liner shipping

This paper investigates opportunities for increased profit and reduced emissions and cost by service differentiation within container shipping. Traditionally the strategy among the container lines has been profit maximization by utilizing economies of scale through the building of larger and faster vessels. In 2008, the financial crisis in combination with higher fuel prices put an end to this progress and in today’s market operators are basically trying to survive by providing standardized services at the lowest possible cost. This study investigates alternative strategies and the results indicate that container lines should provide two different services instead of one standardized service. A fast service to be more competitive versus air freight for fast-moving goods and a slow service to be more competitive versus traditional shipping types for transport of minor bulk, break bulk, liquid bulk and project cargo.     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

国内两起干散货船自沉事故引发的思考

干散货船在水上货物运输中有着举足轻重的地位,然而在繁忙运输中与其相关的事故也频频发生,文中通过分析国内两起干散货船自沉事故背后潜藏的隐患和问题,提出强化航运企业、船舶和监管部门各方薄弱环节管理的建议和意见,以期共同为航运业发展和海上安全运输贡献力量。     

沿海干散货运输市场预测及建议

通过数据详尽分析2009年沿海干散货运输市场的水运形势,同时根据电力行业、钢铁行业的发展对未来2-3年中国煤炭需求、金属矿石需求和干散货运输市场进行预测,建议重视集疏运系统建设,签订长期协议,提高合同兑现率。     

Weekly container delivery patterns in liner shipping planning models

This paper addresses a fundamental question related to nearly all container liner shipping planning models: whether the implicit assumption of identical container delivery pattern every week is valid in a situation of identical shipping services and identical cargo demand every week. We prove that when the number of containers transported from one port to the next is formulated as a continuous variable, the resulting mathematical model with an identical container delivery pattern is equivalent to the model with general container delivery patterns which can be different in different weeks. When the number of containers transported is formulated as an integer variable, the model with an identical container delivery pattern is not equivalent to the model with general container delivery patterns. However, the difference between the optimal objective values of the two models is negligible for practical applications. In sum, little, if not nothing, is lost by assuming an identical container delivery pattern in liner shipping planning models.     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

国际干散货运输市场回顾与展望

从5个方面对2002年的干散货运输市场进行总体分析预测,同时整理归纳了2002年干散货运输的几大特点。 +     

Containerization in Nigeria: trends and patterns

Containerization was introduced into Nigeria in the late 1960s, not through a delibrate policy but through the unilateral action of shipping companies.In spite of this,the percentage of the country's external trade cargo that is containerized grew from only about 0.03 in 1968-69 to about 8.6 in 1981.

Containerization of cargo is more significant in the import than in the export trade. Perhaps because of the capital-intensive nature of this technology, there is a concentration of containerization facilities in the ports of Lagos and Port Harcourt. Whereas this is a cost-efficient development, there are various inefficient aspects in the inland distribution of containers.     

Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the cyclical nature of container shipping market represented by a containerized freight index and proposes a predictive cyclical model of the market. In contrast to the traditional spectral analysis (univariate), system dynamics reflect the drivers of the market in both supply and demand side, and therefore, it is a multi-variate system equilibrium approach consisting of various causal spillovers from sub-components of the market. This study is the first to analyze the cycle of container market using system dynamics. By utilizing system dynamics cyclicality approach, one-step ahead predictions are generated for monthly containerized freight index and compared to conventional benchmarks for post-sample validation. Our study can also help policymakers and shipping liners for better management and invest timing of container ship.     

Overseas trade vis-a-vis overseas shipping: Growth and performance in India (1999–2009)

Maritime trade has been and even continues to account for about a lion's share of India's total cargo volumes. Despite the growth of multimodal transport (by land, water and air), shipping still continues to be the major mode of transport in the bulk carriage of country's overseas trade. In view of this vital role of shipping, in the first four decades of independence, under the initiative of planned development and active government support, India's shipping and port sector saw dramatic growth in their performance to build adequate national fleet, in keeping up with the transport of overseas cargo. However, the onset of economic liberalization in 1991 has given rise to many new dimensions in the development of the shipping and port sector of the country with a significant redefinition of shipping and port services, in response to the new global trend patterns. For instance, it has also established the new era of containerization in the mode of cargo delivery from the dominance of the era of bulk and break-bulk trade during the decade of sixties and seventies. Moreover, as global competition increases, in response to this emerging trade patterns within this country, India's volume of traffic growth also increases manifold. So, India's shipping and port sectors need, significantly, to build up and furnish their capacity by increasing the frequency of this mode of transport i.e. the growth of the national overseas fleet to meet this surging demand. This paper, therefore, have focused on this role of shipping in such rising overseas trade, with a view to examine the shipping performance (the growth of overseas fleet) in response to the growing overseas trade at all ports of India during the period (1999–2000 to 2008–2009), in terms of both a mathematical model and a graphical representation. Finally, it concludes that the absolute overseas trade, being highly import dependent, have led to a more or less stagnant performance in overseas shipping, owing to the lack of the adequate growth of absolute overseas exports during this period.     

基于流程再造的航运揽货流程及开发

从业务处理的现状出发,提出航运企业业务流程再造,以航运揽货业务流程为例,系统分析航运揽货业务流程及流程再造的基本思路,对流程进行优化;结合航运企业信息化的实现过程,采用面向对象的方法对优化后的航运揽货业务流程进行设计与实现.