Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

Cost-effectiveness assessment of CO2 reducing measures in shipping

International shipping is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is under mounting pressure to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. There is an ongoing debate regarding how much the sector could be expected to reduce emissions and how the reduction could be achieved. This paper details a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of technical and operational measures for reducing CO₂ emissions from shipping, through the development of an evaluation parameter called the Cost of Averting a Tonne of CO₂-eq Heating, CATCH, and decision criterion, against which the evaluation parameter should be evaluated. The methodology is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with regulatory work on safety and environmental protection issues at the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The results of this study suggest that CATCH <50 $/tonne of CO₂-eq should be used as a decision criterion for investment in emission reduction measures for shipping. In total, 13 specific measures for reducing CO₂ emissions have been analysed for two selected case ships to illustrate the methodology. Results from this work shows that several measures are cost effective according to the proposed criterion. The results suggest that cost effective reductions for the fleet may well be in the order of 30% for technical measures, and above 50% when including speed reductions. The results of this study show that the cost effectiveness approach for the regulation of shipping emissions is viable and should be pursued in the ongoing regulatory process.     

Atmospheric emissions of European SECA shipping: long-term projections

We modeled the projections of the major atmospheric emissions from shipping of the European sulphur emission control area that includes the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the English Channel until 2040. Emission projections were calculated separately for every ship on annual basis, and the model took into account traffic growth, fleet renewal, and the forthcoming regulations. The regulation on sulfur content of ship fuels will drastically decrease the emissions of sulfur oxides and particulate matter (PM_2.5). As the regulation on nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) only affects the new diesel engines, the decrease in emissions will be seen parallel with the fleet renewal. Globally internalized limits will turn NO _x emissions to decrease with moderate traffic growth. However, by designating the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as NO _x emission control areas, more drastic decrease would occur. CO₂ emissions will stay almost constant through the studied timeline. Results show that European Commission's CO₂ target for 2050 will not be reached without implementation of market based measures among the North Sea and the Baltic Sea fleets. Results present new information for decision makers to further develop international regulations of shipping especially in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.     

Air pollution from ships: Recent developments

All developments on air pollution by ships are fairly recent. Annex VI of the international Marpol-convention, regulating the emissions of CFCs, Halons, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) from cargoes, emissions from incinerators and exhaust gas emissions from engines (NO_x and SO_x) entered into force in May 2005. The International Maritime Organization is currently discussing an upgrade of the air pollution issues covered by Annex VI and some that are not in Annex VI, such as greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ is the most important greenhouse gas emitted by ship. Fuel consumption by the world merchant fleet is expected to grow to between 250–300 million tons per year with corresponding CO₂ emissions of 800–960 million tons per year. In Western Europe land based measures have reduced sulphur emissions substantially, leaving shipping as an important remaining source of these emissions. Average sulphur content of heavy fuel oils is 3%, with a limit of 4.5% imposed by Annex VI. Both the Baltic- and the North Sea have the status of SO_x emission control area, limiting sulphur content to 1.5%.     

Barriers for adoption of energy efficiency operational measures in shipping industry

According to the Third Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Study 2014 of International Maritime Organization (IMO), the total emission in 2012 are estimated to be 949 million tonnes which is 2.7% of global CO₂ emission by total shipping and expected to increase from 2012 levels by 50–250% by 2050. Significant changes are needed to all industry by implementation of energy efficiency design and operational measures to meet existing and future global emission reduction targets. Although the fuel cost-reducing effects of some energy efficiency measures and new technologies are well established and matured, shipping companies appear reluctant to adopt them. Besides, it is observed that the stakeholders are directly or indirectly involved for implementation of energy efficiency measures in shipping industry. Therefore, the objective for this study was to identify the barriers to energy efficiency operational measures by a qualitative survey among various stakeholders from all corners of shipping industry. It has been found in the research that the barriers for implementation of all cost-free operational measures are almost the same such as lack of information of the measure, lack of awareness and competence of ship crews and operation difficulties which are in nature of information and technical barriers. But financial issue and owner’s interest are the key barriers for some other operational measures which are related to costing and need investment for implementation.     

The effects of slow steaming on the environmental performance in liner shipping

The environment issue is one of the significant challenges that the liner shipping industry has to face. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from existing vessels by 20–50% by 2050 and develop the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) as a measure for energy efficiency. To achieve this goal, IMO has suggested three basic approaches: the enlargement of vessel size, the reduction of voyage speed, and the application of new technologies. In recent times, liners have adopted slow steaming and decelerated the voyage speed to 15–18 knots on major routes. This is because slow steaming is helpful in reducing operating costs and GHG emissions. However, it also creates negative effects that influence the operating costs and the amount of GHG emissions at the same time.

This study started with the basic question: Is it true that as voyage speed reduces, the operating costs and CO₂ emissions can be reduced at the same time? If this is true, liners will definitely decelerate their voyage speed themselves as much as possible so that they can increase their profits and improve the level of environmental performance. However, if this is not true, then liners will concentrate just on increasing their profits by not considering environmental factors. This led the authors to set out three objectives: (1) to analyze the relationship between voyage speed and the amount of CO₂ emissions and to estimate the changes by slow steaming in liner shipping; (2) to analyze the relationship between voyage speed and the operating costs on a loop; and (3) to find the optimal voyage speed as a solution to maximize the reduction of CO₂ emissions at the lowest operating cost, thus satisfying the reduction target of IMO.     

CO2 emission statistics for the world commercial fleet

The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of the world commercial fleet. The analysis is based on the Lloyds-Fairplay world ship database for 2007 and produces various emissions statistics of the following major ship types: bulk carriers, crude oil tankers, container vessels, product/chemical carriers, LNG carriers, LPG carriers, reefer vessels, Ro-Ro vessels and general cargo ships. A separate analysis is carried out for small vessels under 400 GRT and for passenger vessels. The main outputs from this analysis for each ship type-size bracket are the emitted grams of CO₂ per tonne-km and an estimate of the total CO₂ produced in a year. The methodology for estimating these statistics is described, and a comparison with other studies is made.     

Environmental awareness and practice concerning maritime air emissions: the case of the Greek shipping industry

One of the most urgent environmental problems facing the shipping industry today is the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from its operations and the possible cost-effective ways in which this reduction could be accomplished. Various technical and operational measures have been proposed as well as market-based instruments for the achievement of the compliance of marine industry with these measures. This paper investigates the levels of environmental awareness of the Greek shipping companies and their views and practices on the proposed policies for the reduction of GHG emissions from their ships. A survey was carried out using a questionnaire distributed to Greek shipping companies of different sizes, involved in different segments of the marine industry, so that the survey's results not only represent a large part of the Greek shipping industry but also reveal the different environmental attitudes and practices on maritime GHG emissions among the shipping companies. Given the size and the importance of the Greek shipping industry in the international maritime field, this paper's results present a special significance as they could be further analyzed and taken into account for the achievement of the compliance of marine industry with any future policy instrument for the reduction of maritime GHG emissions.     

Reviews on current carbon emission reduction technologies and projects and their feasibilities on ships

Concern about global climate change is growing, and many projects and researchers are committed to reducing greenhouse gases from all possible sources. International Maritime (IMO) has set a target of 20% CO₂ reduction from shipping by 2020 and also presented a series of carbon emission reduction methods, which are known as Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Operation Indicator (EEOI). Reviews on carbon emission reduction from all industries indicate that, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an excellent solution to global warming. In this paper, a comprehensive literature review of EEDI and EEOI and CCS is conducted and involves reviewing current policies, introducing common technologies, and considering their feasibilities for marine activities, mainly shipping. Current projects are also presented in this paper, thereby illustrating that carbon emission reduction has been the subject of attention from all over the world. Two case ship studies indicate the economic feasibility of carbon emission reduction and provide a guide for CCS system application and practical installation on ships.     

Estimation of CO2 reduction for Japanese domestic container transportation based on mathematical models

This research discusses domestic feeder container transportation connected with international trades in Japan. Optimal round trip courses of container ship fleet from the perspective of CO₂ emission reduction are calculated and analyzed to obtain basic knowledge about CO₂ emission reduction in the container feeder transportation system. Specifically, based on the weekly origin–destination (OD) data at a hub port (Kobe) and other related transportation data, the ship routes are designed by employing a mathematical modeling approach. First, a mixed integer programming model is formulated and solved by using an optimization software that employs branch and bound algorithm. The objective function of the model is to minimize the CO₂ emission subject to necessary (and partially simplified) constraints. The model is then tested on various types of ships with different speed and capacity. Moreover, it is also tested on various waiting times at hub port to investigate the effect in CO₂ emission of the designated fleet. Both the assessment method of container feeder transportation and the transportation’s basic insights in view of CO₂ emission are shown through the analysis.     

The impact of port operations on efficient ship operation from both economic and environmental perspectives

Recently, shipping lines have focused on efficient ship operation, which relates to energy efficiency issues in shipping and, particularly, to operational issues such that the minimisation of fuel consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Efficient ship operation in container lines is closely related to the ship’s time at sea and ship’s time in port. Reduction in port time, thanks to high-quality port operations, allows improvement in the operational efficiency of a liner service by reducing the fuel consumption of a ship at sea and its resulting CO₂ emissions. The main goal of this article is to investigate how time in port affects efficient ship operation in terms of operating costs, CO₂ emissions and externalities. For this, as a methodology, a simulation based upon system dynamics is introduced. Major finding is that less time in port resulting from the improvement of port operations contributes to efficient ship operation in terms of operating costs, amount of CO₂ emissions and external effects in the liner shipping industry. In particular, a sensitivity analysis on efficient ship operation vis-à-vis the quality of port operation shows that bigger ships need to select highly productive calling ports that provide less time in port.     

国际海运温室气体减排措施概述

文中分析了国际海运温室气体排放的特征，介绍了国际海运温室气体减排措施，并对未来发展趋势作出了预测。     

Incremental costs for reduction of air pollution from ships: a case study on North European emission control area

In addition to sulphur oxides control, the North and the Baltic Seas have recently been designated as nitrogen oxides control area. Amidst ongoing developments in energy markets and international trade, shipowners have to develop cost-efficient strategies to comply with the new regulation. This study creates and tests a model calculating the incremental costs of abating NO_x and SO_x emissions under MARPOL Annex VI regulations for the following methods: SCR, HAM and internal engine modifications, marine gas oil, wet scrubbers, and liquefied natural gas propulsion. The model is tested empirically on a broad sample of 244 ships from the Swedish Commercial Fleet database for different operating contexts and fuel prices. Individual ship emission reductions and incremental abatement costs are calculated and the results are presented for the entire studied sample and per ship type class.

The study also explores the sensitivity of the chosen abatement methods to cost determinants and to main engine time operation under the light of economic performance and cost-efficiency. The results of the study aim to contribute to company abatement strategy.     

The influence of route choice and operating conditions on fuel consumption and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emission of ships

The influence of various parameters, such as ship initial speed (full ahead and lower engine loads), loading condition, heading angle and weather conditions on ship fuel consumption and CO₂ emission is presented. A reliable methodology for estimating the attainable ship speed, fuel consumption and CO₂ emission in different sea states is described. The speed loss is calculated by taking into account the engine and propeller performance in actual seas as well as the mass inertia of the ship. The attainable ship speed is obtained as time series. Correlation of speed loss with sea states allows predictions of propulsive performance in actual seas. If the computation is used for weather routing purposes, values for various ship initial speed, loading conditions and heading angles for each realistic sea‐state must be provided. The voluntary speed loss is taken into account. The influence of the ship speed loss on various parameters such as fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is presented. To illustrate the presented concept, the ship speed and CO₂ emissions in various routes of the Atlantic Ocean are calculated using representative environmental design data for the track of the routes where the ship will sail.     

2011年世界船舶市场评述与未来展望

在"增长放缓、风险增大"的2011年全球经济环境下,世界航运市场受"运力投放无休、运营成本增加"的影响而表现为"低迷不振"。新船的不断交付也使世界商船队年轻化势不可挡。新船建造市场同比有所下滑,液货船和散货船表现不佳,集装箱船和海工市场表现较好,新船价格呈现小幅下调趋势。预计2012年世界船市在三大主力船型上仍不容乐观,海工市场继续有尚佳表现。     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

Emission reduction in international shipping—the hidden side effects

In order to curb the trend toward global warming, many technical, operational, and policy options have been proposed to help reduce the emissions from international shipping—the carrier for 80% of the world’s trade. However, these options might not only reduce emissions from shipping activities, but could also have a ripple effect on the whole supply chain of traded goods, as well as on those serving shipping activities. These effects could have both positive and negative impacts, not only on emission reduction, but also on world trade, economic efficiency, and the local environment. While most studies have examined the feasibility of the various options and their potential contribution to emission reduction, their secondary impacts have not been studied. However, failing to take them into account could very well obstruct the implementation of the options. Through a review of existing studies, this article aims to identify and explain some of these previously unexamined secondary effects that are associated with emission reduction in international shipping, point out the problems that will arise if they are ignored, and provide a basis for further detailed research in this area.     

集装箱船纵倾优化数值模拟

随着全球能源和环境问题越来越严峻,航运市场低迷和竞争的日益激烈,节能减排已成为航运业的迫切需求。船舶纵倾优化具有成本低、易实现和效果佳等优点,是一种更好的节能减排方法。以KCS集装箱船在设计吃水时平吃水状态为基础,对船舶分别进行不同纵倾状态调节,利用RANS方法和切割体自动划分网格技术,计算船舶在不同首倾和尾倾状态下的阻力数值。结果表明,在不考虑水深影响的情况下,KCS集装箱船在不改变船舶航速、载重量的前提下,可以通过纵倾优化调节减少船舶阻力。     

Swedish ports’ attitudes towards regulations of the shipping sector's emissions of CO2

Shipping is increasing today along with the sector's emissions of greenhouse gases. The awareness of the emissions has increased the pressure for regulations of the shipping industry. Regulating the sector is far from simple due to the complexity of the market and the evasive characteristics of the industry. We know from studies of road pricing that attitudes among stakeholders are important for a successive policy implementation. The objective of this paper is to capture the Swedish ports’ attitudes towards regulations of the shipping sector's emissions of CO₂ . This has been done by conducting a survey among commercial ports in Sweden. To our knowledge, this is the first study of this kind. Our analysis indicates that ports in Sweden are generally positive towards an implementation of regulations to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the shipping industry. The ports where most positive towards CO₂ differentiated port due (97%), followed by a technical standard (92%), CO₂ taxation (84%) and EU ETS (The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme; 74%).