长江口航道治理研究中数、物模技术的应用

潮汐河口受径流和潮流共同作用。径潮流动力的不同及其复杂的时空变化导致河口的不同区段水沙特性等也明显不同。在河口治理研究和工程实践中必须充分考虑这些特征。河口治理研究应采用数模、物模多种手段综合研究的方 法,因数模和物模技术具有不同的特点和适用范围,研究方法及具体评价指标应根据研究区段的水沙特性和研究目的合理选用。以长江口深水航道治理工程的实践为例,介绍数物模综合研究技术的应用及效果。     

太仓武港码头洪枯季水沙特性变化分析

针对季节性径流对河口区域水动力条件影响较大的问题,对长江太仓武港码头进行了洪枯季水沙特性变化研究。采用原型观测的方法,将2018—2019年洪枯两季潮位、潮流、含沙量、悬移质和底质测验数据进行对比,分析了工程区域洪、枯季水沙特性变化。结果表明：工程区域潮位变化受径流影响明显;工程区域为典型往复流,洪枯季涨落潮流向基本一致;水文测验期间枯季含沙量整体上略小于洪季含沙量,差异幅度为5.88%～25.67%;洪枯季悬移质中值粒径基本相同;底质组成主要为黏质粉土、黏性土、细砂。     

套尔河河口拦门浅滩道的整治研究

套尔河是注入勃海湾西南岸的最大河流，河道内具有良好的水深条件，但因河口存在拦门浅滩，给河道及其两岸的开发利用造成了致命的障碍。本文综合实地勘测资料，对河口的动力地貌特性、浅滩成因与演变趋势等进行了分析研究，并通过河口潮流物模试验，确定了整治拦门浅滩航道的工程方案。     

长江口深水航道治理工程前期研究工作综述和总体治理方案的确定

长江口深水航道治理工程是一项史无前例的巨型复杂河口治理工程.经长期多学科的联合攻关研究,掌握了长江口水、沙运动及河床演变的基本规律,创造性地提出了在长江口总体河势基本稳定的条件下,可以选择北槽先期进行工程治理的科学论断.针对长江口的特点,提出了稳定分流口、充分利用落潮输沙,采用中水位整治及宽间距双导堤加长丁坝群,结合疏浚工程的总体治理方案.一、二期治理工程的成功,带动了水运工程行业的技术进步,是我国河口治理工程和水运事业的伟大创举,成为世界上巨型河口航道治理的成功范例.     

NIIC-1区段空心方块斜坡堤结构透水性对整治功能影响分析

针对长江口深水航道治理工程整治建筑物工程NIIC-1区段特殊的工况和地质条件,采用了创新的具有较大空隙率的空心方块斜坡堤结构.根据室内模型结构断面透水率模拟实验和整体动床物模试验,结合现场流场测量和工程实施效果监测,初步分析了该结构透水性对整治功能的影响.     

基于数值模拟的盐灶河口污染物治理方案

本文根据盐灶河口附近的实测资料,采用MIKE21平面二维潮流数学模型与污染物扩散模型对三亚盐灶河口及近岸海域水动力条件及污染物的扩散进行数值模拟研究。分析了盐灶河水动力,污染物扩散情况。结果表明,由于河道内存在持续排放及支流输送的污染源,在现有水动力条件下,污染物无法随潮流完全扩散。在采取引入海水的治理措施后,污染物在潮流和径流的共同作用下扩散,水质达到标准。     

长江口深水航道回淤物理过程分析及减淤思路探讨

长江口深水航道治理工程在取得巨大成功的同时,也为深化河口演变和河口治理的理论认识提供了丰富的经验。文章对河口拦门沙及最大浑浊带的生成机制及界定、泥沙密度层化、河口平衡剖面下的输沙特征、径流与丁坝工程对平衡剖面的影响、反映纵向环流影响的河口水团滞留时间(水龄)、航道回淤物理过程等的研究成果进行了归纳梳理,并在此基础上提出了进一步减淤的思路。     

北塘港航道演变及治理措施研究

通过对蓟运河口径流、潮流、泥沙特性及地形资料的分析,研究了北塘港航道的演变规律和趋势,提出了疏浚与整治相结合的航道治理措施。     

和畅洲汊道深水航道整治右汊水动力改善措施分析

在分析长江下游镇扬河段和畅洲水道水沙特性和目前航道条件的基础上,利用最新的实测枯季地形资料,建立和畅洲水道平面二维水流数学模型,计算多种整治思路不同工程措施下,作为通航汊道右汊的水动力因子分流比和流速的增加情况,分析比较各类工程措施的整治效果和利弊,明确应以左汊布置2道潜坝为治理措施研究的主要方向,为12.5 m深水航道建设提供技术依据。     

潮汐河口浅滩整治水位研究（上）

在采用新的设计方法分析潮汐河口的水沙特性的基础上，结合整理论分析和经验总结，提出潮汐河口浅滩整治的新理论及最高、最优整治水位等新概念。提出计算最高整治水位的三种方法及相应计算公式。分析了最优整治水位的确定方法，并结合实例进行了计算分析。     

导弹分段刚体模型和弹性体模型的动响应区别

针对目前一种新提出来的潜射导弹分段刚体模型的试验方案,通过求解在同一载荷作用下分段刚体模型与实际弹性体模型的动响应,来定量分析该模型试验所测得极大载荷值和实际情况下极大载荷的偏差.     

基于模型的耙吸挖泥船溢流损失估计及模型验证

对大型耙吸式挖泥船的装舱作业过程做了充分研究,重点解决了泥舱模型的溢流损失估计问题。利用多组实测数据,对3种泥舱沉积模型的估计效果进行了数据验证和评估分析,给出最终的评估结果。这一理论成果将应用于以后的挖泥船辅助决策和自动控制应用中。     

Use of 3D compartment model for simplified full ship FE model. Part I: construction of FE model

Classification societies cannot cover the torsional strength assessment with simple empirical formula as the size of a containership increases drastically over 10 000 TEU in recent years. Torsional strength of a container ship is very difficult to estimate with an analytical method due to its alternatively varying cross sections, i. e. an open and a closed section. This article proposes an approach to construct a simplified FE model using a 3D compartment model available from the beginning of ship design process. The model is cut to pieces of lots of small pieces of lines by a set of transverse, longitudinal and horizontal planes. Two algorithms are developed for mesh generation of internal structures; one for assembling the broken lines into closed loops and the other for automatically generating mesh from the loops. Another algorithm is proposed to generate mesh for outer hull using outermost nodes of the FE model built for internal members. The validity of the simplified model is discussed along with a beam theory based approach in J Mar Sci Technol (2008)     

Error correction of a predictive ocean wave model using local model approximation

Constructing models from time series with nontrivial dynamics is a difficult problem. The classical approach is to build a model from first principles and use it to forecast on the basis of the initial conditions. Unfortunately, this is not always possible. For example, in fluid dynamics, a perfect model in the form of the Navier–Stokes equations exists, but initial conditions and accurate forcing terms are difficult to obtain. In other cases, a good model may not exist. In either case, alternative approaches should be examined. This paper describes an alternative approach of combining observations and numerical model results in order to produce an accurate forecast. The approach is based on application of a method inspired by chaos theory for building nonlinear models from data called Local Models. Embedding theorem based on the time lagged embedded vectors is the basis for the local model. This technique is used for analysis and updating of numerical model output variables to forecast and correct the errors created by numerical model. The local model approximation is a powerful tool in the forecasting of chaotic time series and has been employed for wave prediction in a forecasting horizon from a few hours to 24 h. The efficacy of the local model as an error correction tool (by combining the model predictions with the observations) compared with the predictions of linear auto regressive models has been brought up. In the present study, the parameters driving the local model are optimized using evolutionary algorithms.     

多模型估计理论

研究利用多模型来副近系统的动态性能,基于多模型设计组合导航系统的多模型自适应卡尔曼滤波器.通过仿真研究表明,在多模型自适应估计和交互式多模型滤波均克服了单一滤波由于外部扰动所造成的滤波误差过大甚至发散的问题.多模卡尔曼滤波器对组合导航系统能达到理想的控制精度、跟踪速度以及稳定性.研究表明,运用多模卡尔曼滤波能改善系统的瞬态响应,覆盖大范围的参数不确定性.     

电信计费模型的设计

依据电信计费系统存在的问题,本文详细描述了电信计费模型的设计方法和各个模块的设计内容。     

指数平滑模型探讨

指数平滑模型在经济预测中应用较为广泛,时间序列的变动趋势不同,应用的平滑模型有所区别。本文介绍了各种指数平滑模型,并以某港为例分别用三次指数平滑及二阶差分—指数平滑模型对其吞吐量进行了预测,并做出了各种模型的适用性分析。     

Validation of vessel seakeeping model tuning algorithm based on measurements at model scale

Wave-induced vessel motion prediction plays a critical role in ensuring safe marine operations. The operational limiting criteria can usually be calculated by applying presumed linearized vessel motion transfer functions based on the specified vessel loading condition, which may deviate from the real vessel condition when the operation is executed. Reducing the uncertainties of the onboard vessel loading condition can therefore improve the accuracy of vessel motion prediction and hence improve the safety and cost-efficiency for marine operations. However, parameters related to the onboard vessel loading condition can be difficult to measure directly, such as the center of gravity and moments of inertia. In addition, the hydrodynamic viscous damping terms are always subject to significant uncertainties and sometimes become critical for accurate vessel motion predictions. A very promising algorithm for the tuning of these important uncertain vessel parameters based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) that uses onboard vessel motion measurements and synchronous wave information was proposed and demonstrated previously by application to synthetic data. The present paper validates the UKF-based vessel seakeeping model tuning algorithm by considering measurements from model-scale seakeeping tests. Validation analyses demonstrate rational tuning results. The observed random errors and bias in relation to the measurement functions due to the applied simplification and linearization in the seakeeping simulations can lead to biased tuning. The importance of designing the state space and the measurement space is demonstrated by case studies. Due to the nonlinear relationship between the uncertain vessel parameters and the vessel motions, the tuning is shown to be sensitive to the mean state vector and selection of the surrounding sigma points.     

Use of a 3D compartment model for simplified full ship FE model. Part II: validation of the simplified FE model

This is Part II in a series of papers. Part I (J Mar Sci Technol 13:154–163) deals with an approach employed to construct a simplified FE model using a 3D compartment model available from the beginning of the ship design process. This paper begins by describing the limitations of an analytical approach based on shear warping beam theory for assessing torsional strength. Next, the structural parts of a container ship that have a negligible effect on hull girder bending strength and torsional strength are determined. This is verified by removing these parts from a conventional FE model and comparing the results obtained using this modified model with those yielded by the original model. The fore end part, the aft end part and the deck house are examined. Since these parts have complicated structures and relevant drawings for them are issued later than cargo structure drawings, modeling them exactly can result in a delay in the completion of the full ship FE model. This paper also verifies the validity of the simplified FE model built by applying the method proposed in Part I and comparing the results obtained with it with those given by a conventional full ship FE model. The stresses on hatch coaming top, the maximum diagonal elongations of the hatch coaming, and the maximum hatch corner movements are evaluated to check the validity of the simplified model.     

港口锚地选址海域适用性评价及优化模型

合理的锚地选址可以保障船舶锚泊安全性,同时可以优化港口的平面布置,提高港口运营效率。总结解决锚地选址问题的现有方法,分析GIS技术在选址问题中的运用,明确锚地选址影响因素并建立综合评价指标体系,同时确定各指标权重值,通过海域适用性评价模型对所有栅格进行综合评价。基于海洋功能区划等约束条件,获得锚地选址的可行方案集,优化比选出最优方案。通过算例分析,验证本文提出的模型合理、可行,可作为锚地选址优化的一种方法。