Minnows And Sharks - Survival Of The Fittest

The Brazilian ship financing system has some unique features. The funds made available to finance the construction and acquisition of ships are sourced from a tax on import and cabotage freight, payable by the shippers. For Brazilian flagged ships, a portion of the tax generated can be used for the payment of loan instalments. This paper analyses the impact of the tax on the economy as a whole, and discusses the distribution of the tax burden between the shipowner and the shipper, taking into account the maritime transport demand elasticities in Brazil. The paper also analyses the effectiveness of the financing system in reducing the capital cost to shipowner, and the distortion effects produced by the utilization of the tax in loan repayments. The conclusion is that there are important distortions that may threaten the recovery of the maritime industry in Brazil.     

An analysis of the Brazilian ship financing system

The Brazilian ship financing system has some unique features. The funds made available to finance the construction and acquisition of ships are sourced from a tax on import and cabotage freight, payable by the shippers. For Brazilian flagged ships, a portion of the tax generated can be used for the payment of loan instalments. This paper analyses the impact of the tax on the economy as a whole, and discusses the distribution of the tax burden between the shipowner and the shipper, taking into account the maritime transport demand elasticities in Brazil. The paper also analyses the effectiveness of the financing system in reducing the capital cost to shipowner, and the distortion effects produced by the utilization of the tax in loan repayments. The conclusion is that there are important distortions that may threaten the recovery of the maritime industry in Brazil.     

国际货运代理业应当尽快实施收益管理

收益管理作为一项先进的管理技术,在国际货运代理业尚未得到充分应用。现以国际货运代理业中最重要的业务之一——国际集装箱运输代理业务为例,探讨国际货运代理业可否实行收益管理,并从可行性、必要性和紧迫性等三个方面,进行较为详细的分析和论述,得出国际货运代理业开展收益管理不仅是可行的,而且是十分必要的,同时也是急待实施的结论,从而为国际货运代理业实施收益管理提供理论支持。     

我国国际货运代理责任保险探讨

近年来,随着国家经济和对外贸易的迅速增长,国际货运代理业在市场竞争中得到迅速发展。国际货运代理市场的全面对外开放给国际货运代理业带来了发展的机遇,但随之而来的是激烈的竞争和难以预测的风险。国际货运代理责任保险制度作为防范和规避国际货运代理风险和责任的有效制度在西方发达国家已极度盛行,而在我国却甚少有人问津。因此,本文从国际货运代理和责任保险的基本概念出发,联系我国国际货运代理责任保险的现状,对国际货运代理责任保险制度在我国的设立作了简单的论述。     

The passenger vessel services act and America's cruise tourism industry

The Passenger Vessel Services Act (PVSA) of 1886, a cabotage law, attempts to shield U.S. maritime shipping from foreign competition. It also applies to the U.S. cruise ship industry. The PVSA requires foreign cruise ships that carry passengers between U.S. ports to also stop at foreign ports. Norwegian Cruise Line America (NCLA), which operates one U.S. flagged cruise ship in Hawaii, wants the U.S. Customs and Border Protection to require foreign cruise ships offering Hawaii itineraries from the U.S. west coast to spend more time in foreign ports. We analyze the merits of NCLA's proposal. We argue that rather than making the PVSA even more protectionist, the law should be repealed.     

航道货运量预测方法及其应用

为了精确预测航道未来货运量需求,克服传统预测方法无法实现复杂非线性拟合的缺点,分析了航道货运量的影响因素,探讨了遗传规划方法在航道货运量预测问题上的应用.根据遗传规划巾复制、交换、变异等进化方式,建立了基于遗传规划的航道货运量预测模型.以江苏省连申线苏北段历年货运量及区域经济发展状况为样本,采用遗传规划方法自动找出货运量随时间变化的规律,并对未来货运量进行了预测.结果表明,本箅法的计算相对误差很小,预测结果合理可信,且优于常用的回归预测,为解决航道货运量等非线性系统预测提供了一条新的途径.     

基于货运强度变化规律的货运量预测方法

目前我国部分地区货运量统计数据存在收集不全、统计口径不一致及社会经济环境变化大等问题,导致常规的时间序列预测法和回归预测法难以在这些地区应用。鉴于此,分析了国内外货运强度变化的规律,指出人均GDP和第三产业所占比例是影响货运强度的主要因子,提出了通过模糊聚类方法对地区货运发展阶段进行定位,找出其发展阶段所对应的货运强度值,进而提出依据人均GDP和第三产业所占比例进行货运量预测的方法。最后对邢台市的货运量预测进行了实证研究。     

Round-the-world service: The rise of Evergreen and the fall of U.S. Lines

In the mid-1980s two very large steamship lines, Evergreen Marine Corporation and United States Lines, inargurated round-the-world (RTW) container ship service. The concept of tying together major transoceanic trade routes in a complete global network is feasible provided that the cargo volumes and freight revenues are sustainable. United States Lines employed enormous new container ships in their one-directional RTW service while Evergreen used frequent sailings of somewhat smaller vessels both eastbound and westbound in their RTW service. United States Lines, unfortunately, was unable to obtain sufficiently high load factors or enjoy sufficient economies of scale to survive whereas Evergreen, emphasizing their high quality service, not only survived but have continued their successful operations to this day.     

长江干线水运量和承载能力研究

考虑长江水运与生态环境相互作用影响,引入资源环境学科的承载能力概念,研究界定了长江干线水运承载能力的内涵。构建了与货运量、航道通过能力、船流密度、船舶污染物排放等诸多因素相关联的长江干线水运承载能力的算法。以船舶污染物排放总量不增长为前提,得出了2035年长江干线水运承载能力。分析表明,如果环境容量允许适度增长,或进一步优化运输组织、改善提高船舶技术性能、应用清洁能源、控制污染物排放,长江干线水运承载能力尚有较大提升空间。     

长江上游船舶大型化对典型污染排放的影响

长江上游船舶大型化趋势明显,评估其对典型污染排放的影响对航道建设规划具有重要意义.收集计算长江上游船舶吨位、船舶交通流、船舶燃油消耗及典型污染物排放等数据,分析了长江上游船舶大型化对典型污染物排放的综合影响.结果表明:1)2008—2019年长江上游三省一市船舶平均吨位从249 t增加到874 t,船舶流量显著减小,货...     

连云港外海含沙量推求及航道回淤预测

目前国内在研究淤泥质海岸航道回淤时,通常仅有近岸含沙量的实测资料,而外海含沙量较难获得。为此,建议可以利用实测的航道淤积、近岸含沙量等资料,根据刘家驹的航道回淤计算公式,近岸率定淤积系数,反推外海泥沙含量,据此进行航道回淤预测。经过连云港7万吨级进港航道验证,计算的航道回淤与实测值吻合较好,在此基础上,对拟建的连云港15万吨级航道回淤进行了预测。研究结果表明,所提出的方法切实可行,计算结果合理可信,可以作为相似条件下航道泥沙回淤计算的参考。     

Methodology for ro-ro ship and fleet sizing with application to short sea shipping

A novel methodology is developed for determining the characteristics of a cargo roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ship and the fleet size required for a given short sea shipping route. The ship and required fleet size to satisfy the transportation demand (for each pair of speed and freight rate) are determined using a database of existing cargo ro-ro ships to obtain the main technical characteristics of the most suitable ship. The time charter, voyage costs and revenue are then calculated considering the technical characteristics of each ship. Fuel costs are corrected for the actual ship speed and loading condition. A number of restrictions in the transportation problem are considered leading to the exclusion of unfeasible solutions. The maximum profit over the period of a year is identified among the feasible pairs of speed and freight rate. This general methodology is applied in a case study that considers the route between Leixões (Portugal) and Rotterdam (Netherlands). The study allows the identification of the most suitable ship and fleet sizes for different market penetration levels and quantifies the impact on shipping company profit of changes in parameters such as fuel costs, time charter costs, emission control area, installed propulsion power and stacking factor.     

Combined ships: an empirical investigation about versatility

Combined ships have been built in order to minimize ballast voyages and to take advantage of the highest freight rates on either market, oil or dry cargo market. Then their versatility should have been very attractive for shipowners. So why has the combined fleet shrunk to such an extent? This paper provides an analysis of the employment of combined ships, how this has been influenced since the 1970s, and how these ships may have influenced oil and dry market balances. The research identifies the decisive role that grain trade seems to be able to play about shifting markets, and that combined ships were the largest bulk carriers in the 1970s. It is an opportunity to stress that freight rates are not always the only salient point for a shipowner's decision and to consider the importance of combination ships contribution to shipping markets.     

船舶轴系扭振计算和测试实例分析

船级社规范对轴系扭振提出了计算和实测的要求。本文对若干轴系固有频率的实测值与计算值不一致的船舶进行了分析，并给出了对影响其相应计算精度的减振器、曲轴、联轴节刚度等扭振参数进行了修正的实例；通过实测，对无阻尼自由振动计算的振型精度亦进行了分析，按振型推算系统响应超规范要求的船舶，可根据实测振幅来调整阻尼参数并用解析计算法来评价轴系扭振特性。结果表明，精确测定出系统的固有频率和振幅，从而核定轴系的扭振参数，是提高扭振计算精度的关键所在。     

国际集装箱运价管理机制的探讨——兼论运价报备制度实施的作用与实质

通过对试行的运价报备制度的作用与实质的分析提出了在目前国际集装箱运输市场以运价报备制度作为运价管理模式是合适的。运价报备制度比传统的各种运价管理模式刚性小、易于被业界各方接受,又可以作为国家宏观管理的一种政策手段,为长期稳定集装箱运价起到积极的作用,在目前运价全面放开的市场背景下还可以作为一种新运价管理模式。     

浅析国际货运代理人法律地位认定的若干标准

确定国际货运代理企业的法律地位并依其法律地位承担相应的责任和义务,是我们参与到国际货运游戏规则中的必要条件。本文就中国际货运代理人的法律地位认定的几个标准进行分析,以便国际货运代理人明确其法律责任意识,建立起更好的风险防范机制,实现更安全健康的发展。     

提高三峡船闸通过能力的若干措施研究*

三峡水库蓄水通航以来,通过三峡坝区货运量持续增长,通过能力已趋于饱和,而且船舶大型化发展迅速,目前通过船舶大约一半吃水大于原设计标准。科学合理地挖掘船闸的富余水深,增加过闸船舶吃水、提高船闸的通过量是当前需要解决的重要问题。采取理论研究与实船测试验证的方法,对三峡船闸的运行方式和过闸船舶、船舶吃水控制标准计算方法、船舶过闸实船试验、过闸船舶吃水控制标准等进行了系统的研究,取得了多项创新成果。     

Container liner freight index based on data from e-booking platforms

This article proposes a framework for a daily container freight index (DCFI) and investigates a number of principles in the design of this type of indices. Based on a comparative analysis with the existing container freight indices, we explore a method of integrating the framework with the use of data from e-booking platforms and illustrate why the new index can provide more insightful information for shippers. We also apply the framework to have a daily Shanghai container freight index by combining data sources from the platforms linked to the Shanghai port. By implementing the index to a risk analysis problem, we use numerical results to show the DCFI’s potential position in real hedging problems for container liner markets.     

Market efficiency in the bulk freight market revisited

Given that the freight rate is the price of a transportation service that cannot be traded or stored; the traditional form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) does not apply to the freight rate price process. However, the notion of market efficiency still applies in the freight market. In particular, under the hypothesis that the market is semi-strong-form efficient, it should not be possible to make excess profit by taking chartering positions in the freight market based on public information such as past levels of the spot freight rate or the shape of the term structure of freight rates. This paper contributes to the literature by proposing an alternative test of market efficiency in the bulk freight market. We utilize technical analysis based on the history of spot freight rates and investigate the profitability of such chartering strategies for a tanker operator. The chartering decisions are based on identification of the peaks and troughs in the freight market cycles using kernel smoothing of the spot freight rate history. The empirical results suggest that a large tanker operator (e.g. a pool) could have achieved significant profits without investing in ships by trading on such information, although this does not hold in the most recent subset of the sample.