Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Correlates of bicycling trip flows in Hamilton,Ontario: fastest,quietest, or balanced routes?

Transportation - Bicycling is an increasingly popular mode of travel in Canadian urban areas, like the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). While trip origins and destinations can be inferred...     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

The continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone: the problem of delimitation at UNCLOS III

If the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea succeeds in adopting a new Caracas Convention on the Law of the Sea, it is likely to embody detailed provisions on the delimitation of both the continental shelf and the new zone, the exclusive economic zone. In this paper, the most recent draft of these rules—contained in the Revised Single Negotiating Text—is subjected to a detailed and critical scrutiny which leads to the conclusion that the Sixth Session of the Conference still has a great deal of work to do before agreement can be reached on a satisfactory set of rules.     

Effect of nozzle orifice diameter on diesel spray tip penetration according to various spray models for CFD simulation with widely varying back pressure

CFD simulations of spray tip penetration with the standard KIVA3V, ‘original gas jet’ and ‘Normal gas jet profile with breakup length formula’ (NGJBL) spray models were performed to investigate the effects of nozzle orifice size and ambient gas density combinations on the spray penetration. The accuracy of the CFD simulation results was estimated by comparing them with available experimental data. The ambient gas density was varied in 12 kg/m³ intervals from 12 to 69 kg/m³ for each nozzle orifice diameter. The nozzle orifice diameters used were 119, 140, 183 and 206 mm. A total of 20 cases in the CFD simulations were considered with combinations of the 4 nozzle orifice diameters and 5 ambient gas densities. CFD simulations with the NGJBL spray model were more accurate than those with either the standard KIVA3V or gas jet spray models as the nozzle orifice diameter and ambient gas density was increased. The NGJBL and original gas jet model is more effective in predicting the spray tip penetration near the nozzle tip region.     

Nanoparticle emission characteristics and reduction strategies by boost pressure control and injection strategies in a passenger diesel engine

This research attempted to analyze nanoparticles and other harmful exhaust emissions in accordance with injection strategies and air-fuel ratio (AFR) changes for small diesel engines. The emission characteristics were analyzed in the medium-speed condition, which is the main driving range of a diesel engine. In the case of particulate matter (PM), the number of particles was measured, analyzed, and compared to identify the correlation and emission characteristics of nanoparticles by using a dilution device and condensation particle counter (CPC), which are international standards for particle measurement recommended by the Particulate Measurement Programme (PMP). The engine torque tended to be reduced as pilot injections were added, and the torque was increased by the increased boost pressure, but reduced by the exhaust pressure increase in a part of the low-load range. The number of nanoparticles was not influenced greatly by the change in AFR, but the reduction effect on the PM weight was great depending on the boost pressure increase. In addition, the number of nanoparticles tended to increase as the fuel injection timing became closer to TDC in all conditions, and its difference became larger with an increase in AFR. In addition, in the case of the pilot injection, nanoparticle emission showed similar characteristics depending on the main injection timing, but it was increased by advanced injection timing when performing the main injection only, and the number of the nanoparticles increased as pilot injections were added. Last, the optimal conditions for EMS calibration were analyzed by selecting the conditions of torque reduction and NOx increase within 5 % from all of the engine operating conditions; optimized conditions are presented.     

Vibration reduction of H/Shaft using an electromagnetic damper with mode change

The objective of this study is to develop a damper that can reduce the amplitude of vibration in various frequency ranges. Previous H/Shaft vibration reduction methods work in a passive way. A dynamic damper reduces the amplitude of vibration at its first mode, but vibration still appears at the second mode. A mass damper or hollow shaft can shift the natural frequency to a lower or higher region. The fixed operating frequency prevents vibration from being reduced outside the operating frequency range. The proposed damper uses electromagnets as either masses or actuators to change the damper mode between dynamic damper mode and mass damper mode. The electromagnetic damper (EMD) can change its mode to respond to the vibration excitation at both low and high frequencies. The vibration reduction performance was evaluated by FRF tests in laboratory and vehicle conditions. The results were compared with those of a dynamic damper and indicate that the amplitude of vibration is reduced by 95.6 % when the EMD is implemented on an H/Shaft, whereas only 61.9 % vibration reduction is achieved by the dynamic damper.     

Effect of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism on plasma lipid levels and its relationship with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease

Objective To explore the risk association of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism with coronary heart disease (CHD) in Hart nationality in Northwest of China. Methods With case-control study, ABCA1-V771M polymorphism was detected in 204 unrelated Hart nationality people in Northwest of China, and all the subjects by coronary angiography were grouped into 106 cases and 98 controls. The genotypes and alleles frequency distribution of ABCA1-V771M polymorphisms were analyzed by PCR-RFLP analysis, and the clinical statistics of serum lipids were compared and its effects of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism on the plasma lipid levels and coronary atherosclerotic heart disease were analyzed. Results The genotypic frequencies of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism matched well under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (P>0.05), V and M allelic frequencies were 33.3% and 66.7%. In comparison with VV VM genotype carriers, MM genotypes carriers had much lower plasma levels of HDL-C (P<0. 001) and much higher plasma levels of TG (P<0. 05). M allelic frequency in CHD group was significantly higher than V allelic frequency (P<0. 05). M allele was related with more severity of atherosclerosis in the coronary artery than V allele (P<0.05). However, there was no obvious difference in the incidence of AMI among carriers with three genotypes of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism (P>0.05). Conclusion ABCA1-V771M polymorphism was not only associated with the plasma levels of HDL-C and TG, but also related to the susceptibility and severity of coronary atheroselerotic heart disease. Moreover, M771 allele appeared to be atherogenie among Han population in Northwest of China.     

Sub‐optimal decision‐making and the transportation problem

A modification to the transportation problem is outlined that aims to improve the quality of predictions of trip matrices, and at the same time, allow some behavioural and economic insights. A framework is suggested within which this modification may be made and a suitable statistic and iterative process are described. A simple example demonstrates the validity of the modification and suggests some areas of difficulty with the approach.     

Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.