Ballast Water Treatment systems: “Old” and “New” ones

This paper offers an overview of the currently available Ballast Water Treatment systems, their efficacy in reducing the number of organisms in relation with the IMO and other, future standards, and explores potentially new and promising technologies and current gaps.     

Can mixed logit reveal the actual data generating process? Some implications for environmental assessment

Recent advances in the specification of the utility function of mixed logit models allow the analyst, in principle, to consider a vast variety of individual heterogeneity. Nevertheless, when estimating the model it is common practice to experience severe difficulties in discriminating between different specifications to infer the “true” data generating process. We investigate possible sources for this difficulty focusing on the confounding effects inherent in two basic assumptions of discrete choice model utilities: linearity in the parameters and added error terms. We analyse the role of these assumptions in giving rise to confounding effects and why this increases the difficulty of discriminating among different structures. Finally, we investigate how these problems may affect benefit appraisal using these models. Empirical evidence is provided for two different environmental contexts and a more typical transport context using various kinds of data.     

American and European transportation responses to the 1973–74 oil embargo

A survey of U.S. and European responses to the energy crises engendered by the Arab boycott of October 1973–April 1974 is presented. U.S. Government policy actions with respect to allocation, rationing, price, and conservation measures are reviewed and contrasted with those of affected European governments. The results of those policies and their effects on transportation energy supply and demand behavior with respect to both commodity and passenger movement are described.Based on short- and long-term impact assessments of the policies considered, the authors identify significant research requirements.The authors were heavily engaged in U.S. responses to the energy emergency, and were asked to undertake study missions to those European nations significantly affected by the crisis to seek out avenues for mutual aid, and joint research, in resolving common energy problems. This paper is one product of those study missions.     

Estimation and validation of a microscopic model for spatial economic effects of transport infrastructure

The spatial economic effects in integrated land use and transport models are increasingly disaggregate and can benefit from improved knowledge into the effect of accessibility and agglomeration on the spatial behaviour of firms. This article strives to contribute to this knowledge by first analysing the influence of accessibility and agglomeration on firm behaviour with exceptionally detailed firm data for the province of South Holland in The Netherlands. Next the added value of incorporating such effects in urban simulation models is tested with two series of validation runs with a microscopic model for firm dynamics.The presented Spatial Firm-demographic Micro-simulation (SFM) model simulates transitions and events in the firm population, including firm relocations, firm growth, firm dissolution and firm formation. Accessibility is measured with proximity to infrastructure access points and logsums of business and commuting trips from a transport model. Agglomeration measures are based on theories from urban economics and integrate travel time range bands into measures for specialisation and diversification. Estimation results confirm a significant influence of accessibility and agglomeration on the choice behaviour of firms. Application of these measures prove to increase the validity of the firm-demographic simulation model to a significant but modest extend.     

Review and assessment of the nested logit model

The popular hierarchical or nested logit model that has been the recent source of heated discussions in the literature is reviewed and critically examined. The fundamental underpinnings of the model are first presented in a concise and easy-to-understand fashion and then used to assess each controversy in turn. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to examine some problems that are not possible to address by just resorting to the theory. The main conclusion is that all the model hypotheses are both essential and unambiguous and should not be ignored for a correct use of the model in practice.     

The external cost of speed at sea: An analysis based on selected short sea shipping routes

According to the mid-term review of the EU White Paper on Transport, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is expected to grow at a rate of 59% (metric tonnes) between 2000 and 2020. If we consider that the overall expected increase in both freight exchanges and volume is 50%, sea transport is one of the most feasible alternatives to reduce traffic congestion on European roads. Maritime transportation may compete with road transport as far as certain traffics are concerned, but only when assuming external costs. This paper analyzes several intermodal transport chains involving a sea leg by comparing the effect of pollutant emissions from different ship types and road transport in terms of potential external cost savings. The translation of these emissions into environmental costs shows, for certain conditions, savings in the case of sea transport that would justify the use of an environmental bonus to promote the sea option.     

The development of the TIGRIS XL model: A bottom-up approach to transport, land-use and the economy

The project appraisal method in the Netherlands distinguishes direct effects, indirect distribution effects and indirect generative effects. Transport models are generally available for calculating the benefits of transport projects to travellers as part of the direct effects. The TIGRIS XL model, a Land-Use and Transport Interaction model, adds indirect distribution effects for the housing and labour market, by modelling changes in the spatial distribution of jobs and residents. This paper describes the current TIGRIS XL model and how it can be applied in the evaluation of transport projects. It refers to work done with the TIGRIS XL model to improve the calculation of the direct benefits by applying the so-called ‘logsum’ method. Finally it discusses ideas on how to extend the TIGRIS XL model to address indirect generative effects as well.The current TIGRIS XL model, its integration with the National Model System (the standard tool for the Dutch government to analyse the effects on passenger transport) and basic design principles are the starting point of such an exploration. These design principles include:

•

an emphasis on detail, both spatial as well as in socio-economic segments, to account for differences in the availability of choice alternatives and in choice behaviour, and to provide impacts by region and socio-economic group;

•

the requirement that the relationships used rest on an empirical foundation.

The post-processing methods proposed on this paper for the calculation of the direct benefits and indirect generative effects are consistent with these design principles. To calculate the indirect generative effects, a post-processing module is proposed which transforms changes in travel times and land-use into agglomeration effects. These agglomeration effects combine several of the generative effects, like scale economies, an increasing variety of products, labour market matches and knowledge spill-over. The effects of changes in the agglomeration indicator on productivity can be estimated with existing data sources, as was demonstrated in the UK (Graham, 2005).     

On the observability of the fortnightly cycle of the Tagus estuary turbid plume using MODIS ocean colour images

Using three years (2003 to 2005) of MODIS-Aqua normalized water-leaving radiance at 551 nm this paper shows a fortnightly cycle in the Tagus estuary turbid plume. The Tagus estuary is one of the largest estuaries of the west coast of Europe and is located in the most populated area of Portugal, including the capital Lisbon. The turbid plume has been detected by the backscattering characteristics of the surface waters in the vicinity of the estuary mouth. In fortnightly scales, the turbid plume has smaller dimensions during and after neap tides and higher dimensions during and after spring tides. This is most probably associated with the fortnightly spring–neap tidal cycle and the consequent increase in turbidity inside the estuary during spring tides. During the summer weak spring tides (tidal amplitude approximately 2.5 m) no turbid plume is observed for an entire fortnightly cycle. Outside the summer months, precipitation, river discharge and winds, were found to increase the turbid area, but the fortnightly cycle appears to be superimposed on the large time-scale variability, and present throughout the year.