Are we doing it wrong or do we expect too much? Forces that push authorities to become public transport designers

This paper presents a number of reasons that are responsible for the disappointment of authorities in their operators’ efforts to develop public transport (PT) to the advantage of their travellers. The lessons drawn in this paper are based upon the competitive tendering experience of the authors and upon the results of meetings organised with parties involved in competitive tendering and aimed at exchanging lessons. There appears to be three main causes: (1) there is freedom for the operator, but the contract is bad; (2) there is freedom for the operator, there is a good contract, but there is no market; and (3) there is freedom for the operator, but the operator is not able to use it. The paper concludes with a few perspectives for improvement.     

Seaports and the structural implications of the economic crisis

The 2008 credit crunch and the subsequent economic crisis ended a period that lasted over two decades wherein international seaports around the globe experienced double-digit volume increases. This chapter provides an analysis of the structural effects that the crisis has on seaports, focusing mostly on developments in Europe. It does so via an examination of (a) the crisis implication for each of the four major types of transport flows that account for the vast majority of port throughput worldwide; (b) the prospects for future capacity organisation and development, given the realignment of the involvement strategies that the various stakeholders (i.e., governments, port authorities, service providers, users, investors) endorse in reaction to the financial tsunami; and (c) the adjustment opportunities, that the trade downturn unintentionally provides, allowing for correction of existing misallocations in the sector via the deployment of relevant adjustment strategies by the related actors. Recapping the identified structural consequences, the final section concludes on the changing role and responsibilities of port authorities and the ‘new issues’ that will require further investigation in the post-financial tsunami era.     

Can agents measure up? A comparative study of an agent-based and on-line optimization approach for a drayage problem with uncertainty

Experiments studying the behavior of agent-based methods over varying levels of uncertainty in comparison to traditional optimization methods are generally absent from the literature. In this paper we apply two structurally distinct solution approaches, an on-line optimization and an agent-based approach, to a drayage problem with time windows under two types of uncertainty. Both solution approaches are able to respond to dynamic events. The on-line optimization approach utilizes a mixed integer program to obtain a feasible route at 30-s intervals. The second solution approach deploys agents that engage in auctions to satisfy their own objectives based on the information they perceive and maintain locally. Our results reveal that the agent-based system can outperform the on-line optimization when service time duration is highly uncertain. The on-line optimization approach, on the other hand, performs competitively with the agent-based system under conditions of job-arrival uncertainty. When both moderate service time and job-arrival uncertainties are combined, the agent system outperforms the on-line optimization; however, in the case of extremely high combined uncertainty, the on-line optimization outperforms the agent-based approach.     

Global maritime domain awareness: a sustainable development perspective

The International Maritime Organization defines maritime domain awareness as the effective understanding of any activity that could impact upon the security, safety, economy or environment. The traditional approach to manage it is based on state sovereignty over national territorial waters where authorities exercise their responsibilities within the defined specific area. Lately, new issues of transboundary dimension (i.e. piracy, overfishing, pollution) are changing the high seas from an open space governed by the rule of freedom into a common domain requiring new governance approach to manage its complex international problems. This paper investigates the use of sustainable development methodology to explore governance solutions within the socio-technical domain of maritime awareness. The outcome suggests that the use of sustainable development tools can and should be used to support the development and implementation of cooperative governance models which are more appropriate for creating global maritime domain awareness than the traditional state-centric and sector-based models. A modelling diagram for potential governance framework under International Maritime Organization’s leadership is included.     

Stockholm congestion charging: an assessment with METROPOLIS and SILVESTER

This paper reviews and compares the performance of two dynamic transportation models – METROPOLIS and SILVESTER – which are used to predict the impacts of congestion charging for Stockholm. Both are mesoscopic dynamic models treating accumulation and dissipation of traffic queues, route choice, modal split and departure time choice. The models are calibrated independently for the baseline situation without charges and applied to forecast the effects of congestion charging. The results obtained from the two models are mutually compared and validated against the actual outcome of the Stockholm congestion charging scheme. Both models successfully predict the outcomes of the congestion charging trial at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. Results of welfare analysis, however, differ substantially due to differences in model specification.     

Towards a standardized European road network database

Many Driver Information Systems, especially those that provide location information and route guidance instruction, rely on some form of digital map data, i.e. data that represent the location and other properties of earth-bound objects. A deeperinformation analysis of the data needs of the systems reveals that many needs are very close to the demands that a human navigator makes on a classical paper map. But it also reveals some hidden needs, which relate to the fact that the current Driver Information Systems have only a very poor or no general knowledge. Gathering all these data, putting them into a database and keeping them up to date is an enormous task. Therefore it is very important to know whatsurveying and digitizing techniques are the most suitable for such data. This question is currently being investigated by two DRIVE projects, PANDORA and Task Force EDRM.To guarantee the efficiency of a road network database and to guarantee the exchangeability of traffic messages, a certainstandardization will be inevitable. One possibility is to standardize the finished article, i.e. the map data in the form in which they are represented on the medium used by the system itself (e.g. CD, coded beacon message). This is the solution that has been chosen in Japan, where a CD-ROM based standard has been defined. It is also the solution chosen by the European manufacturers of beacon-supported systems such as Autoguide and LISB, who have defined a standard for the road-vehicle communication link. Another possibility is to standardize the semi-manufactured article, i.e. the map data as they occur in a general purpose road database or in the datafiles produced by data suppliers. This solution has been chosen by Bosch and Philips and had led to their GDF, in which they define a standard data content, a data model and an exhange format for these files. If the systems are going to combine data coming from different sources, the need arises for standard reference numbers. This means that an organizational infrastructure will have to be set up to create and maintain such a reference numbering system. A road database that is kept up to date, represents a lot of money. It will be vitally important for such databases to be legally protected against copying activities.     

A two-layer model of the Rhine plume

The outflow of Rhine water into the shallow Southern Bight of the North Sea leads to almost discontinuous vertical density distributions and sharp frontal structures around the river mouth. Strong tidal motion, wind and baroclinic effects have large influence on the dynamics and dispersion of river water. A three-dimensional tidal model, including advective and diffusive transport of salinity, is used in the two-layer mode for simulation of Rhine water outflow to quantify the interaction of the different processes and the effect on dispersion and mixing of river water. Layer depths are adjusted in a way that no advective transports between upper and lower layer take place in case of sufficiently stable stratification. In case of weak or no stratification the upper layer depth is fixed, and advective transports between layers are computed. Model results show frontal eddy development and (limited) growing internal waves due to baroclinic instability. Comparisons with observational data are presented.     

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.     

Inclusion of latent variables in Mixed Logit models: Modelling and forecasting

Travel demand models typically use mainly objective modal attributes as explanatory variables. Nevertheless, it has been well known for many years that attitudes and perceptions also influence users’ behaviour. The use of hybrid discrete choice models constitutes a good alternative to incorporate the effect of subjective factors. We estimated hybrid models in a short-survey panel context for data among many alternatives. The paper analyses the results of applying these models to a real urban case study, and also proposes an approach to forecasting using these models. Our results show that hybrid models are clearly superior to even highly flexible traditional models that ignore the effect of subjective attitudes and perceptions.