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11.
Modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many
practical transport planning studies and is recognised to hold particular challenges. The importance of congestion and its
variation over the day, together with the emergence of time-dependent road user charging as a policy tool, emphasise the need
to understand whether and how travellers will change the timing of their journeys. For practical planning studies, analysts
face a major issue of relating temporal changes to other behavioural changes that are likely to result from policy or exogenous
changes. In particular, the relative sensitivity of time and mode switching has been difficult to resolve. This paper describes
a study undertaken to determine the relative sensitivity of mode and time of day choice to changes in travel times and costs
and to investigate whether evidence exists of varying magnitudes of unobservable influences in time of day switching. The
study draws on data from three related stated preference studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and
the Netherlands and uses error components logit models to investigate the patterns of substitution between mode and time of
day alternatives. It is concluded that the magnitude of unobserved influences on time switching depends significantly on the
magnitudes of the time switches considered. With time periods of the magnitude generally represented in practical modelling,
i.e. peak periods of 2–3 hours, time switching is generally more sensitive in these data than mode switching. However, the
context of the modelling and the extent to which relevant variables can be measured will strongly influence these results. 相似文献
12.
Gerard de Jong Andrew Daly Marits Pieters Stephen Miller Ronald Plasmeijer Frank Hofman 《Transportation》2007,34(4):375-395
This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts
for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related
measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are
treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty
in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.
相似文献
Gerard de JongEmail: |
13.
Batley Richard Bates John Bliemer Michiel Börjesson Maria Bourdon Jeremy Cabral Manuel Ojeda Chintakayala Phani Kumar Choudhury Charisma Daly Andrew Dekker Thijs Drivyla Efie Fowkes Tony Hess Stephane Heywood Chris Johnson Daniel Laird James Mackie Peter Parkin John Sanders Stefan Sheldon Rob Wardman Mark Worsley Tom 《Transportation》2019,46(3):583-621
Transportation - This paper provides an overview of the study ‘Provision of market research for value of time savings and reliability’ undertaken by the Arup/ITS Leeds/Accent consortium... 相似文献
14.
The study of respondent heterogeneity is one of the main areas of research in the field of choice modelling. The general emphasis
is on variations across respondents in relative taste parameters while maintaining the assumption of homogeneous utility maximising
decision rules. While recent work has allowed for differences in the utility specification across respondents in the context
of looking at heterogeneous information processing strategies, the underlying assumption that all respondents employ the same
choice paradigm remains. This is despite evidence in the literature that different paradigms work differently well on given
datasets. In this article, we argue that such differences may in fact extend to respondents within a single dataset. We accommodate
these differences in a latent class model, where individual classes make use of different underlying paradigms. We present
four applications using three different datasets, showing mixtures between “standard” random utility maximisation models and
lexicography based models, models with multiple reference points, elimination by aspects models and random regret minimisation
models. In each of the case studies, the behavioural mixing model obtains significant gains in fit over the base structure
where all respondents are hypothesised to use the same rule. The findings offer important further insights into the behavioural
patterns of respondents. There is also evidence that what is retrieved as taste heterogeneity in standard models may in fact
be heterogeneity in decision rules. 相似文献