Analyzing passenger train arrival delays with support vector regression

We propose machine learning models that capture the relation between passenger train arrival delays and various characteristics of a railway system. Such models can be used at the tactical level to evaluate effects of various changes in a railway system on train delays. We present the first application of support vector regression in the analysis of train delays and compare its performance with the artificial neural networks which have been commonly used for such problems. Statistical comparison of the two models indicates that the support vector regression outperforms the artificial neural networks. Data for this analysis are collected from Serbian Railways and include expert opinions about the influence of infrastructure along different routes on train arrival delays.     

Factors affecting public transportation usage rate: Geographically weighted regression

As the number of private vehicles grows worldwide, so does air pollution and traffic congestion, which typically constrain economic development. To achieve transportation sustainability and continued economic development, the dependency on private vehicles must be decreased by increasing public transportation usage. However, without knowing the key factors that affect public transportation usage, developing strategies that effectively improve public transportation usage is impossible. Therefore, this study respectively applies global and local regression models to identify the key factors of usage rates for 348 regions (township or districts) in Taiwan. The global regression model, the Tobit regression model (TRM), is used to estimate one set of parameters that are associated with explanatory variables and explain regional differences in usage rates, while the local regression model, geographically weighted regression (GWR), estimates parameters differently depending on spatial correlations among neighbouring regions. By referencing related studies, 32 potential explanatory variables in four categories, social-economic, land use, public transportation, and private transportation, are chosen. Model performance is compared in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and spatial autocorrelation coefficient (Moran’ I). Estimation results show that the GWR model has better prediction accuracy and better accommodation of spatial autocorrelation. Seven variables are significantly tested, and most have parameters that differ across regions in Taiwan. Based on these findings, strategies are proposed that improve public transportation usage.     

Towards data-driven car-following models

Car following models have been studied with many diverse approaches for decades. Nowadays, technological advances have significantly improved our traffic data collection capabilities. Conventional car following models rely on mathematical formulas and are derived from traffic flow theory; a property that often makes them more restrictive. On the other hand, data-driven approaches are more flexible and allow the incorporation of additional information to the model; however, they may not provide as much insight into traffic flow theory as the traditional models. In this research, an innovative methodological framework based on a data-driven approach is proposed for the estimation of car-following models, suitable for incorporation into microscopic traffic simulation models. An existing technique, i.e. locally weighted regression (loess), is defined through an optimization problem and is employed in a novel way. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using data collected from a sequence of instrumented vehicles in Naples, Italy. Gipps’ model, one of the most extensively used car-following models, is calibrated against the same data and used as a reference benchmark. Optimization issues are raised in both cases. The obtained results suggest that data-driven car-following models could be a promising research direction.     

Cellpath: Fusion of cellular and traffic sensor data for route flow estimation via convex optimization

A new convex optimization framework is developed for the route flow estimation problem from the fusion of vehicle count and cellular network data. The issue of highly underdetermined link flow based methods in transportation networks is investigated, then solved using the proposed concept of cellpaths for cellular network data. With this data-driven approach, our proposed approach is versatile: it is compatible with other data sources, and it is model agnostic and thus compatible with user equilibrium, system-optimum, Stackelberg concepts, and other models. Using a dimensionality reduction scheme, we design a projected gradient algorithm suitable for the proposed route flow estimation problem. The algorithm solves a block isotonic regression problem in the projection step in linear time. The accuracy, computational efficiency, and versatility of the proposed approach are validated on the I-210 corridor near Los Angeles, where we achieve 90% route flow accuracy with 1033 traffic sensors and 1000 cellular towers covering a large network of highways and arterials with more than 20,000 links. In contrast to long-term land use planning applications, we demonstrate the first system to our knowledge that can produce route-level flow estimates suitable for short time horizon prediction and control applications in traffic management. Our system is open source and available for validation and extension.     

交通可达性与城市经济活动的空间特征分析：以北京市为例

借助开源大数据平台，提出交通可达性及城市经济活动数据采集策略，利用全局常参数和局部变参数回归模型研究北京市六环区域内两者的空间特征.相比于全局模型，局部模型能够较好地刻画交通可达性与城市经济活动间的空间异质性特征.结果表明，私人交通可达性呈现以天安门为中心径向递减的多圈层结构，公共交通呈现轨道交通沿线区域高的特点.交通可达性与经济活动匹配度具有空间非平稳性，空间分离和匹配现象并存.西北部、中部区域空间匹配特征显著，东北部、东部区域次之，西南区域空间分离现象最为严重.丰台及良乡等分离区域，宜重视道路及轨道线网等基础设施建设工作；未来科学城等私人交通匹配，公共交通分离的区域，可考虑修建轨道线路，并增加公交运营服务水平；中关村科学城、北京经济技术开发区等匹配区域，以调整交通运营管理政策为主.     

基于符号回归算法的地铁盾构刀盘扭矩预测研究

为了提高盾构机工作效率、降低施工成本,依托深圳地铁8号线某盾构区间段工程,基于符号回归(Symbolic Regression)算法,对不同掌子面的刀盘扭矩进行了预测。分析了推力、土仓压力以及贯入度变化及换刀对扭矩的影响。结果表明,贯入度增大会导致扭矩增加,但是土仓压力的增加可能会降低扭矩。扭矩模拟数学模型具有较高精度,模型中自变量变动引起因变量变化的趋势与现实情况一致。     

Sea state estimation based on vessel motion responses: Improved smoothness and robustness using Bézier surface and L1 optimization

Floating structures oscillate in waves, where these wave-induced motions may be critical for various marine operations. An important consideration is thereby given to the sea states at the planning and operating stages for an offshore project. The most important information extracted from a sea state is the directional wave spectrum, indicating wave direction, significant wave height, and wave spectrum peak period. Among several available methods of measuring and estimating the directional wave spectrum, the wave buoy analogy technique based on vessel motion responses is an in situ and almost real-time solution without extra costs of devices. If the forms of the wave spectra are not predefined in the estimation, the method is called a nonparametric approach. Its most remarkable advantage is the flexible form, but the smoothness should be regulated. After the discrete Fourier transform has been applied to the measured vessel motions, smoothing is necessary. However, this process results in disturbed vessel cross-spectra and a lowpass characteristic of the windowing function. This paper presents a nonparametric approach for directional wave spectrum estimation based on vessel motion responses. It introduces novel smoothness constraints using Bézier surface and includes a more robust estimate using L1 optimization. Both techniques are applied to the wave buoy analogy for the first time. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the proposed algorithm.     

钻孔法测试残余应力基础理论研究

论述了传统钻孔法测试残余应力中存在的不完善之处。并对中心有一圆孔(包括穿孔与盲孔)的钢板,在各种载荷工况下,根据实际应力场与直角应变花测试的实际情况,用弹塑性FEM算得各种工况下的结点应变值,用结点数值的变化来模拟直角应变花测得数据,并计算出大量的已知应力场的直角应变花的三个释放应变。通过逐步回归的数学处理方法,建立了钻孔测试法中,残余应力与测试应变之间的关系式。     

A NEW SYSTEM DYNAMIC EXTREMUM SELF-SEARCHING METHOD BASED ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS

Inindustrialprocessesself searchingoptimumcontrolsystemshavebeenwidelyused ,becausetheydonotneedamathematicalmodel,whichhaveblockdiagram (seeFig .1) .Theprincipleistomakethecontrolsystemreachitsoptimumoperatingstatebycontinuousmeasuringandcontrolling.Thenec essaryconditionisthattheplantsmusthaveanex tremumcharacteristic[1 ] .Thekeyofself searchingoptimumcontrolishowtofindthesystemextremum pointautomati cally .Therearemainlytwokindsofself searchingmethods,whicharethecontinuoussearchingandthest…     

Solving Electromagnetism Differential Equations Based on Random Walk

An approach of solving the finite difference equations with Monte Carlo method was presented. The accuracy of algorithm is guaranteed by the Central Limit Theorem. The computation of the value on each single node is independent of each other, which makes it easy to realize the algorithm in parallel processing and greatly improves the efficiency while dealing with local area computation. As long as different kinds of boundary conditions are statistics modeled ,wide applications can the be made where the finite difference method is of competence.