抓住机遇奋发有为为实现铁路"十一五"规划良好开局而努力奋斗--在2006年全路计划工作会议上的讲话(摘要)

“十五”期间,铁路在路网建设、装备现代化、既有线提速扩能改造、投融资改革、节能、环保等方面均取得了重大成就。本世纪头20年是我国发展的重要战略机遇期,在实现区域经济协调发展、建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会和建立现代化综合交通运输体系中,铁路将充分发挥骨干作用。在“十一五”规划目标下,铁路面临着加快快速客运网络建设、强化煤炭运输通道、扩展西部路网、优化东中部路网等建设任务。2006年是“十一五”开局之年,要抓住机遇,提高计划管理水平,重点完成项目前期工作、落实建设资金、基建任务以及装备现代化等方面的工作,为实现铁路跨越式发展目标做出贡献。     

一种基于BP神经网络的机动目标跟踪算法

交互式多模型（IMM）算法是一种可以有效跟踪机动目标的滤波算法,针对其跟踪精度和计算量在很大程度上受制于模型选择和转移概率确定的问题,提出了一种利用BP神经网络修正子模型滤波结果的改进IMM算法。仿真实验表明,该方法可以使IMM算法的收敛速度加快,收敛精度提高,改善了跟踪性能,具有一定理论指导意义。     

破损船体的剩余极限强度分析

基于ABS和DNv规范关于剩余强度规范要求,对船舶碰撞与搁浅的破损部位和范围的假定,考虑了发生碰撞与搁浅破损后,其船体梁剩余有效剖面的非对称性和可能发生不同程度倾斜的情况,采用结构共同规范(CSR)中的逐步破坏分析方法和船体梁非对称剖面计算模型,分别计算了散货船和油船破损船体在两种破损模式和不同倾斜情况下的剩余极限强度,并对不同破损范围的影响进行了分析和比较。研究结果为协调结构共同规范(HCSR)的制定提供了有价值的参考。     

基于碰撞试验的远端乘员保护研究

侧面碰撞是一种常见的交通事故形式,碰撞近端和远端都会出现大量的人员伤亡。以往的研究多集中于近端碰撞侧,对远端非侧碰撞侧的研究相对不足。Euro NCAP自2020年起将FARSIDE测试纳入评价范围,主要通过两个滑台试验,对远端假人伤害和侧向偏移进行评价。文章对FAR-SIDE测试的试验方法和评价标准进行解析,并通过进行滑台试验、分析试验中假人运动和伤害过程,对远端碰撞乘员保护进行了研究。     

Pragmatic regularization of element-dependent effects in finite element simulations of ductile tensile failure initiation using fine meshes

For the evaluation of the structural response in accidental scenarios like ship collisions, the simulation of tensile failure initiation is inevitable. Here, one difficulty is that the process of failure initiation is a very local process, which cannot be simulated in its details at present due to the computing effort which would be required. However, there are various approaches how the failure initiation can be simplified and simulated in finite element models of large thin-walled structures. A short overview of these approaches is given. A pragmatic approach, which is suitable for relatively small elements for the simulation of failure initiation in uniaxial to biaxial stress states, is chosen within this paper for further investigations regarding the applicability for thin-walled steel structures. Exemplary simulations with solid and, in particular, shell elements are used to demonstrate how the effects of element size and other element properties can be considered in the simulation of failure initiation. The focus is also on imperfections that are relevant in simulations with small elements. For this purpose, an indentation experiment is simulated with different imperfections.     

海底混响非瑞利特性研究及神经网络应用

基于单元散射理论介绍了瑞利分布模型和K分布模型,通过计算混响偏度和峰度判断出海底混响偏离瑞利分布模型,并利用CW信号、LFM信号的试验混响数据进行阵元域、波束域上的PDF曲线拟合。结果表明,海底混响的统计特性更趋向于K分布模型。利用BP网络方法和海底混响、点目标仿真信号的PDF特性进行了目标识别验证,其正确识别率达到了92%以上,且计算量大大降低。     

Strategic considerations behind the network–regional airline tie ups – A theoretical and empirical study

The paper examines the strategic vertical relationship between network and regional airlines. We develop a model to illustrate how network airlines can use the contractual relationship with regional airlines as an efficient tool to simultaneously drive out inefficient network airlines and also accommodate other cost efficient network airlines in any specific market. The model is tested on U.S. data using simultaneous and sequential choice models. We find that market size, cost differences between network airlines, as well as cost differences between network and regional airlines, are the chief determinants of the network airlines’ decisions on whether or not to serve a market with their own fleet, as well as how many regional airlines to contract with.     

Analysis of structural crashworthiness of double-hull ships in collision and grounding

A conceptual design framework for collision and grounding analysis is proposed to evaluate the crashworthiness of double-hull structures. This work attempts to simplify the input parameters needed for the analysis, which can be considered as a step towards a design-oriented procedure against collision and grounding. Four typical collision and grounding scenarios are considered: (1) side structure struck by a bulbous bow, (2) side structure struck by a straight bow, (3) bottom raking, (4) bottom stranding. The analyses of these scenarios are based on statistical data of striking ship dimensions, velocities, collision angles and locations, as well as seabed shapes and sizes, grounding depth and location. The evaluation of the damage extent considers the 50- and 90-percentile values from the statistics of collision and grounding accidents. The external dynamics and internal mechanics are combined to analyse systematically the ship structural damage and energy absorption under accidental loadings.     

Control of interacting machines in automated container terminals using a sequential planning approach for collision avoidance

The control of automated container terminals is complex since Quay Cranes (QCs), Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) and Automated Stacking Cranes (ASCs) interact intensively for transporting containers, while collision avoidance of equipment must be ensured. This paper proposes a methodology to generate collision-free trajectories of free-ranging AGVs in automated container terminals, while minimizing the makespan of the whole container handling system. A hierarchical control architecture is proposed to integrate the scheduling of interacting machines and trajectory planning of AGVs. Following a so-called overall graph sequence by a scheduler, the collision-free trajectories of AGVs are determined by solving a collection of mixed integer linear programming problems sequentially. Simulation results illustrate the potential of the proposed methodology.     

Collision course? The North Airfield Safety Study at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)

The LAX North Airfield Safety Study was undertaken by an Academic Panel consisting of the present authors, and was based in large part on a simulation that was conducted at FutureFlight Central at NASA Ames Research Center. The primary aim of the study was “to estimate as specifically as possible the level of future safety associated with several geometrical configurations of the LAX North Airfield.” This paper describes the study, and how it combined information from human-in-the-loop simulations at NASA with historical data from LAX and other US airports about runway incursions and collisions. The analysis indicated that, even under its existing physical layout, LAX North would experience very low risk of runway collisions at traffic levels projected for 2020. That risk could be reduced by about half if the North Airfield runways were reconfigured, and some reconfigurations would also add appreciably to the operational efficiency of the airport. But because the “baseline” level of risk is so low, the Study concluded that “it would be difficult to construct a compelling case on safety grounds alone for reconfiguring the North Airfield.”