A Stated preference freight mode choice model

Transport policy aims to assist the transport system to work more efficiently and effectively. An understanding of the reasons why people choose to move freight in a certain manner is critical to the development of appropriate policies. This article outlines a data collection approach and the development of a disaggregate mode choice model applicable to the analysis of freight shipper decision making. It focuses on the choice between rail and road in Java, Indonesia. The model indicates that safety, reliability and responsiveness are major attributes influencing rail/road freight mode choice. Transport policies aimed at improving these dimensions should increase the attractiveness of rail transport.     

Cultural Models of Pfiesteria : Toward Cultivating More Appropriate Risk Perceptions

Based on semistructured interviews (N = 7), informal interviewing (N = 63), and a survey (N = 790), this article describes the cultural models used by mid-Atlantic residents to understand Pfiesteria piscicida. A cultural model is a simplified way of understanding a complex system, shared by members of a culture. Eighty-eight percent of respondents understood Pfiesteria using one of four previously existing cultural models: a disease in fish, a parasite in fish, a water pollutant, and a toxin or poison. These models are not used by marine biologists, who are more likely to refer to Pfiesteria taxonomically or, in its fish killing form, to call it a predator. Our survey shows that the cultural model a respondent holds is correlated significantly with his or her believed pathway of human harm (e.g., eating fish versus swimming) and is correlated significantly but weakly with his or her behavioral responses. We conclude that existing cultural models, as the public has applied them to Pfiesteria, have led people to avoid a range of coastal activities and seafoods, in virtually all cases unnecessarily. Cultural models appear to explain public reaction better than previously hypothesized factors such as inaccurate media coverage. These findings suggest an approach to developing a pedagogical and communications strategy which could provide the public with a cultural model better matched to Pfiesteria.     

Material transport from the nearshore to the basinal environment in the southern Baltic Sea: I. Processes and mass estimates

Processes involved in erosion, transport and deposition of cohesive materials are studied in a transect from shallow (16 m) to deep (47 m) water of the SW Baltic Sea. The wave- and current-induced energy input to the seabed in shallow water is high with strong variability and suspended matter concentrations may double within a few hours. Primary settling fluxes (from sedimentation traps) are less than 10 g m⁻² day⁻¹, whereas resuspension fluxes (evaluated from sedimentation flux gradients) are 15–20 times higher and the residence time for suspended matter in the water column is 1–2 days. Settling velocities of aggregates are on average six times higher than for individual particles resulting in an enhanced downward transport of organic matter. Wave-induced resuspension (four to six times per month) takes place with higher shear stresses on the bottom than current-induced resuspension (three to five times per month). The short residence time in the water column and the frequent resuspension events provide a fast operating benthic–pelagic coupling. Due to the high-energy input, the shallow water areas are nondepositional on time scales longer than 1–2 weeks. The sediment is sand partly covered by a thin fluff layer during low-energy periods. The presence of the fluff layer keeps the resuspension threshold very low (<0.023 N m⁻²) throughout the year. Evaluated from 3-D sediment transport modeling, transport from shallow to deep water is episodic. The net main directions are towards the Arkona Basin (5.5×10⁵ t per year) and the Bornholm Basin (3.7×10⁵ t per year). Energy input to the bottom in deep water is low and takes place much less frequently. Wave-induced resuspension occurs on average once per month. Residence time of particles (based on radioactive isotopes) in the water column is half a year and the sediment accumulation rate is 2.2 mm year⁻¹ in the Arkona Basin.     

公共交通系统经营模式分析

公共交通行业的基本经营特征决定行业不能实现完全独立的商业化运转,必须纳入到城市的公共服务体系中.为打造高效、优质的公共交通系统,应在公共政策、行业管理和企业经营三个层面各司其职,形成多层次的管理体系.本文按照市场的经营主体和竞争模式划分,对国内外最为常见的管理模式进行分析,探讨各种模式的运营环境及其适应性,为国内城市制...     

OD矩阵估计问题研究综述

OD矩阵是交通规划、管理与控制的重要决策支持数据,OD矩阵估计是获得OD矩阵数据的一种先进技术方法。主要对道路交通系统的OD矩阵估计(静态和动态)方面的相关主要文献进行概括总结与简单评述,包括研究现状及存在的主要问题等。主要涉及道路观测点的优化布设、静态OD矩阵估计模型及算法、动态OD矩阵估计模型和方法等几方面。最后,总结了近期OD矩阵估计方面的主要研究热点。     

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主要讨论基于用户平衡原则的交通网络优化问题。这些问题大致上可以分为二大类:一类是涉及到确定性用户平衡原则；另一类是考虑随机性用户平衡原则。众所周知，运筹学中的双层规划模型能够完美地刻画这些问题，但是所建立的双层优化模型往拄属于不可微优化问题的范畴，这就给设计有效的算法带来了很大困难.此文首先从模型和算法的角度总结了有关这类问题已有的研究成果，接着介绍有关这方面的最新的研究进展，即如何把用户基于平衡原则下的交通网络优化问题的双层规划模型统一地转换为一个连续可微的单层最优化问题，并设计统一的算法。作为统一的算法方面的研究，我们可以看到增广的拉格朗日方法可以用来解上述的第一类问题，而基于灵敏度的分析的序列二次规划方法完全有能力解上述的第二类问题。     

A family of macroscopic node models

The family of macroscopic node models which comply to a set of basic requirements is presented and analysed. Such models are required in macro-, mesoscopic traffic flow models, including dynamic network loading models for dynamic traffic assignment. Based on the behaviour of drivers approaching and passing through intersections, the model family is presented. The headway and the turn delay of vehicles are key variables. Having demand and supply as input creates a natural connection to macroscopic link models. Properties like the invariance principle and the conservation of turning fractions are satisfied. The inherent non-uniqueness is analysed by providing the complete set of feasible solutions. The node models proposed by Tampère et al. (2011), Flötteröd and Rohde (2011) and Gibb (2011) are members of the family. Furthermore, two new models are added to the family. Solution methods for all family members are presented, as well as a qualitative and quantitative comparison. Finally, an outlook for the future development of empirically verified models is given.     

Modelling the relationship between travel behaviours and social disadvantage

The purpose of this paper is to model the travel behaviour of socially disadvantaged population segments in the United Kingdom (UK) using the data from the UK National Travel Survey 2002–2010. This was achieved by introducing additional socioeconomic variables into a standard national-level trip end model (TEM) and using purpose-based analysis of the travel behaviours of certain key socially disadvantaged groups. Specifically the paper aims to explore how far the economic and social disadvantages of these individuals can be used to explain the inequalities in their travel behaviours.The models demonstrated important differences in travel behaviours according to household income, presence of children in the household, possession of a driver’s licence and belonging to a vulnerable population group, such as being disabled, non-white or having single parent household status. In the case of household income, there was a non-linear relationship with trip frequency and a linear one with distance travelled. The recent economic austerity measures that have been introduced in the UK and many other European countries have led to major cutbacks in public subsidies for socially necessary transport services, making results such as these increasingly important for transport policy decision-making. The results indicate that the inclusion of additional socioeconomic variables is useful for identifying significant differences in the trip patterns and distances travelled by low-income.     

Reliable Shortest Path Problems in Stochastic Time-Dependent Networks

This study investigates the time-dependent reliable shortest path problem (TD-RSPP), which is commonly encountered in congested urban road networks. Two variants of TD-RSPP are considered in this study. The first variant is to determine the earliest arrival time and associated reliable shortest path for a given departure time, referred to as the “forward” TD-RSPP. The second problem is to determine the latest departure time and associated reliable shortest path for a given preferred arrival time, referred as the “backward” TD-RSPP. It is shown in this article that TD-RSPP is not reversible. The backward TD-RSPP cannot be solved by the algorithms designed for the forward problem using the reverse search from destination to origin. In this study, two efficient solution algorithms are proposed to solve the forward and backward TD-RSPP exactly and the optimality of proposed algorithms is rigorously proved. The proposed solution algorithms have potential applications in both advanced traveler information systems and stochastic dynamic traffic assignment models.