基于重要度和可靠度的路段质量排序

提出将路段质量定义为路段重要度(LS)和路段通行能力可靠度(LCR)的线性加权和,作为城市道路单元或公路路段关键性的衡量指标,有助于确定亟需改善的道路单元。针对路段通行能力服从连续分布函数的假设,基于Monte Carlo模拟求解随机用户均衡配流模型,从而可以通过灵敏度分析(SA)方法计算LS,使用LCR分布函数计算LCR,最终确定出随机路网的路段质量排序。以一个小型网络作为算例,验证路段质量排序的可行性。     

一种接收系统电路容差分析研究

对影响电路容差性能的关键参数进行仿真、分析和调整,优化电路容差性能。根据容差分析的一般流程,利用Mentor软件对一种接收系统模拟电路的参数进行容差仿真,采用蒙特卡罗法、最坏情况法和参数扫描法对电路容差的稳定性进行分析。通过调整元器件的标称值、精度及温度系数等参数,改进了电路的容差性能,达到了设计要求。仿真结果表明,调整元器件的重要参数,可以改变电路的容差性能,优化所设计的电路,节省设计时间和设计费用,为提高产品的可靠性提供了一种新的途径。     

多舰协同螺旋应召搜潜建模与仿真

基于舰载舰壳声呐搜潜原理及舰艇协同应召螺旋搜潜战术,建立了在潜艇初始位置已知、航向及航速未知的条件下,多舰利用舰壳声呐对潜艇目标搜索的数学模型,基于已建搜索模型及假定的潜艇运动模型,采用蒙特卡洛方法,仿真分析了相同条件、不同潜艇运动模型下,潜艇初始航向角、潜艇初始航向角选定后航向变化次数、航段搜索时间、航段最佳搜索时间等因素对搜潜概率的影响,并进行了分析比较。仿真结果表明,不同目标运动态势对搜索概率均具有较大影响,在对潜艇进行搜索时,只有根据对潜艇目标运动态势的感知程度合理选择搜索模式,才能提高搜索效率。     

基于多传感信息融合的智能车辆定位方法

针对高精度定位系统中地图的重要性问题,将定位问题分为无地图定位与基于地图定位,分别对智能车辆的定位问题进行探索.对研究的智能车辆、传感器及其定位问题进行建模分析,再对该平台实施传感器校准以减小系统误差.对于无地图定位问题,利用扩展卡尔曼滤波算法将里程计与惯性测量单元(IMU)数据相融合,通过试验证明航迹推测法存在累计误...     

基于预约需求的共享停车平台泊位分配方法

为解决在预约需求下，考虑预约时刻、时长及延时需求的共享停车分配问题，提出一种共享停车泊位分配模型. 以平台收益和停车步行距离为优化目标，将需求分为基本及延时两种情况，确定停车预约请求的分配策略. 根据模型结构，设计随机解集生成方法，利用蒙特卡洛法确定模型的最优解. 以医院停车场及周边停车场为案例，测试模型. 结果表明，模型能较好地服务于共享停车泊位的分配，实现平台收益与满足需求之间的平衡.     

Efficient long-term fatigue analysis of deepwater risers in the time domain including wave directionality

Accurate fatigue assessment is a challenging and crucial aspect of riser design. The prediction of the long-term fatigue damage must account for numerous sea states of different wave heights, periods, and directions. Each sea state entails a dynamic analysis, often performed in the time domain owing to the significant nonlinearities. Because of the short-term uncertainties from irregular waves, the simulation duration must be sufficiently long for results to converge. To alleviate the hefty computational cost of long-term fatigue analysis, researchers have proposed efficient methods, but these are not without drawbacks; in particular, wave directionality is commonly neglected. This paper presents an efficient method for long-term fatigue analysis based on time domain simulation, considering wave directionality among other things. The proposed method is based on an enhanced version of control variates to reduce the variance in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The control function is constructed by training artificial neural network (ANN) models using existing MCS data. Here, a customized scheme is developed to allow for the situation that the training data and ANN prediction cases have different wave directions. The proposed method is unbiased and provides an error estimate. Simulations are performed on a floating system, and the proposed method is found to improve the efficiency of MCS significantly. Different scenarios such as fixed and random wave directions are compared, confirming that wave directionality is critical and should be included in a long-term fatigue assessment.     

Incorporating uncertainty and risk in transportation investment decision-making

This paper presents a framework for addressing uncertainty and risk for large-scale transportation investments involving public–private participation. Demand, fare/toll and demand responsive costs are considered in the uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis provides information on economic feasibility of the project. A set of relaxation policies is proposed to form various Ownership, Tenure and Governance (OTG) strategies reflecting the nature and level of participation by the public and private entity. A Monte Carlo Simulation-based Value at Risk is used to quantify risk. Finally, a methodology is proposed to integrate uncertainty and risk. The framework is tested on the proposed multibillion dollar Detroit River International Crossing connecting the cities of Detroit in the USA with Windsor in Canada. The analysis provides insights to probable outcomes for this transportation infrastructure investment under different OTG scenarios.     

带有随机需求的车辆路径选择问题算法研究

为带有随机需求的车辆路径问题（VRPSD）提供一个具有通用性的算法,将一个VRPSD问题转化成带有运力限制的车辆路径问题（CVRP）的有限集,通过解CVRP问题来解决VRPSD问题。为提高解的可靠性引入了安全库存的概念,并运用了蒙特卡罗仿真方法,得到了在不同安全库存水平下每条路径的可靠性。用实例检验所述方法的可靠性和通用性。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的舰船装备系统任务成功概率模型

针对连续工作的任务要求,建立在给定备件数量下串并联系统的任务成功概率模型,基于MonteCarlo抽样技术给出模型的数值算法,该模型能有效解决系统组成单元独立但不同分布、考虑已工作时间且寿命为非指数分布等复杂情况下的任务成功概率计算问题,用于评估舰船装备系统的任务成功性。     

基于多属性综合评价法的港口节能减排水平评价*

客观综合地对港口节能减排水平进行分析和评价是实现港口节能减排的必要条件,针对港口节能减排水平评价指标之间的排序优势性,以及评价指标的多样性等特点,采用指标序优势多属性综合评价法,利用指标排序确定各权重系数,并对5大港口进行了实证分析评价,评价的结论基本符合港口节能减排水平的现状,该方法具有可操作性和实用性。