道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证

基于参数服从SB分布的混合Logit 模型进行道路交通统计生命价值的测算研究. 首先，结合意愿选择法和正交实验法设计出行路径选择调查问卷；然后，基于死亡风险系数服从对数正态分布和SB分布的混合Logit 模型，构建统计生命价值测算模型；接着以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据，并利用Monte Carlo 仿真方法进行模型参数标定；最后，对模型进行比较分析，并获得统计生命价值的测算值. 研究结果表明：死亡风险参数服从限制域为(0.0, 0.5)SB分布的混合Logit 模型，精确性更高且更合理；道路交通统计生命价值测算值为 105.76万元，这一结果可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据.     

基于船舶减速的单线航道通航效率评价

针对现有航道通航效率评价存在对船舶航行状态考虑不足的问题,提出一种基于船舶减速的单线航道通航效率评价模型。该模型从船速差异对船舶自由航行状态影响的角度,综合考虑航道长度、船速大小和船舶到达率等参数,用船舶减速幅度和减速后的通航历时衡量单线航道的通航效率η。在统计分析船舶交通流变化规律的基础上,采用离散仿真软件Arena进行模拟仿真试验,利用蒙特卡洛方法探究并揭示航道长度、船速和船舶到达率等参数变化对单线航道η的影响机理。研究结果表明:单线航道η模型对评价和表征航道η是可行的,可为航道通航能力和船舶交通组织效率分析等提供评价依据。     

A stochastic computational model for yellow time determination and its application

This paper proposes a stochastic model to determine the yellow time according to the occurring probability of Type‐I dilemma zone (P_DZ). Unlike the conventional methods generally based on the deterministic traffic flow theory, the proposed model fully accounts for the randomness of input variables such as approaching speed, deceleration rate, perception‐and‐reaction time, and distance to stop‐line at the yellow onset. A theoretical model is firstly established, and a computational program incorporating Monte Carlo Simulation is then developed to facilitate its general solution. These two alternative solution approaches to derive P_DZ and Y are proposed, depending upon whether D/V and (τ + V/2d) follow certain analytical distributions or not. In addition, field data at a typical high‐speed highway intersection are collected to validate the model. Based on the validated model, comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted to look into the entire picture of the relationship between P_DZ and the distributions as well as correlations of the input variables. To demonstrate the application of the proposed model, the required yellow times for various conditions are calculated based on the acceptable levels of P_DZ, and representative application tables for typical cases are finally provided. With the aid of the proposed methodology, traffic engineers are capable of designing yellow time in a more sophisticated manner. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainties estimates of hull girder still water loads of bulk and dry cargo ships through Monte Carlo simulations

This paper deals with the estimate of uncertainties affecting still water hull girder loads of bulk and dry cargo ships. In strength assessment of ships, two main categories of acting loads are considered: still water loads and wave induced ones. While the latter are generally defined bearing in mind their stochastic nature, this is not the case for still water loads, which are basically deterministically considered. The underlying assumption is that there is an overall control of the operational profile during the service of a ship. However, this is not the case in actual fact, especially for general dry cargo ships and bulk carriers, since the loading/unloading process cannot be fully controlled by the crew, often resulting into loading conditions rather different from those planned by the designer. Based on an earlier work, where loading conditions of the above-mentioned ship types were statistically analyzed, in the present paper Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the uncertainties affecting the hull girder still water loads of ships in service, showing that their allowable values can be exceeded due to inaccuracies in ship and cargo management.     

A reliability approach to fatigue crack propagation analysis of ship structures in polar regions

Fatigue is a common failure mode in ship structures. For structures with an initial crack, the fatigue crack propagation behavior needs to be considered. The purpose of this study is to establish a procedure for analysis of fatigue crack propagation of ship structures in combination with reliability methods. The stress intensity factor (SIF) and geometry correction factor are calculated by means of finite element analysis. Validation for the SIF calculation is achieved by comparing the computed results with those based on related solutions. Since fatigue damage usually occurs in weld areas, the effect of such components on the fatigue crack propagation behavior was also considered in this work. The Paris law in combination with the Monte Carlo technique are employed for the fatigue crack propagation analysis in this study. Reliability updating based on inspection for cracks is also carried out. A computer program was developed for the purpose of fatigue crack propagation analysis within the framework of reliability methods. An application example of fatigue crack propagation in relation to the hull of the icebreaker Xuelong 2 is presented. The sensitivity of the procedure to key analysis parameters (sample size, initial crack size) is also considered. Finally, the effect of low temperatures on the computed results is also analyzed.     

基于蒙特卡罗有限元法分析运营中的厦门海底隧道荷载效应

文中在总结运营公路隧道的荷载特点、概括影响隧道荷载效应各种因素及其统计特征的基础之上,运用蒙特卡罗有限元法对厦门海底隧道海域Ⅳ类围岩下左洞某断面二次衬砌的荷载效应和弯矩的统计特征进行了计算和分析。研究结果表明：厦门海底隧道海域Ⅲ级（Ⅳ类）围岩下左洞某断面的二次衬砌结构最大弯矩发生在仰拱处,最大轴力发生在拱脚处;衬砌拱顶、拱腰以及拱脚和仰拱处的弯矩不拒绝服从对数正态分布;衬砌拱顶、拱腰以及拱脚和仰拱处的荷载效应不拒绝服从正态分布。     

基于Monte Carlo法的多车道公路桥梁车流模拟

在分析实测车辆数据的基础上,确定了模型车辆、车重、车头时距等交通特征的分布类型及参数.采用Monte Carlo法进行随机抽样,自编MATLAB程序,对自由车流进行模拟,得到车重、轴重在桥梁上的纵横向分布及其随时间变化情况;讨论了车辆占用车道不均匀系数的3种不同情况,发现轴重在桥上均呈多峰分布,峰值相近,但出现频率差异...     

Network-based real option models

Building on earlier work to incorporate real option methodologies into network modeling, two models are proposed. The first is the network option design problem, which maximizes the expanded net present value of a network investment as a function of network design variables with the option to defer the committed design investment. The problem is shown to be a generalized version of the network design problem and the multi-period network design problem. A heuristic based on radial basis functions is used to solve the problem for continuous link expansion with congestion effects. The second model is a link investment deferral option set, which decomposes the network investment deferral option into individual, interacting link or project investments. This model is a project selection problem under uncertainty, where each link or project can be deferred such that the expanded net present value is maximized. The option is defined in such a way that a lower bound can be solved using an exact method based on multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical tests are conducted with the classical Sioux Falls network and compared to earlier published results.     

关于在役舰艇非概率可靠性模型的安全性评估

文章基于非概率可靠性理论和概率统计理论,结合描述抽样的蒙特卡洛数值模拟法,建立了腐蚀损伤下的现役舰艇船体结构非概率可靠性和概率可靠性分析模型。然后,以某大型舰艇为例,采用两种可靠性分析模型对该舰腐蚀损伤后船体结构的可靠性进行了分析,最后,对两种可靠性分析模型的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明:非概率可靠性理论既凸显不确定性变量的客观随机性又兼具计算量小、效率高、结果保守等优势,在工程应用中具有较强的适用性和实用性。     

船舶碰撞损伤风险分析方法及应用

提出一套基于概率分析和损伤机理的船舶碰撞损伤风险分析方法,该方法采用船舶碰撞外部动力学三维解析方法、内部动力学简化解析方法以及Monte Carlo模拟。通过分析船舶发生碰撞的概率因素,分析某艘船舶发生碰撞并且产生结构损伤的概率;通过与规范衡准进行比较,判断船体结构设计的耐撞性能。以某型大型油轮为例,利用所提出的方法进行耐撞性计算,结果表明该方法可以为基于风险分析的船舶耐撞性设计方法提供技术支持。