对抗滑桩治理滑坡的可靠性分析

针对滑坡岩土体参数的不确定性,采用基于概率统计理论的不确定性分析法,对滑坡抗滑桩进行了蒙特卡洛方法模拟,并建立了相应的极限状态方程。实际应用表明该法是较为合理的工程设计方法。     

Statistical inference on transit route‐level origin–destination flows using automatic passenger counter data

We consider inferring transit route‐level origin–destination (OD) flows using large amounts of automatic passenger counter (APC) boarding and alighting data based on a statistical formulation. One critical problem is that we need to enumerate the OD flow matrices that are consistent with the APC data for each bus trip to evaluate the model likelihood function. The OD enumeration problem has not been addressed satisfactorily in the literature. Thus, we propose a novel sampler to avoid the need to enumerate OD flow matrices by generating them recursively from the first alighting stop to the last stop of the bus route of interest. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that incorporates the proposed sampler is developed to simulate the posterior distributions of the OD flows. Numerical investigations on an operational bus route under a realistic OD structure demonstrate the superiority of the proposed MCMC method over an existing MCMC method and a state‐of‐the‐practice method. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical properties of bulk carrier longitudinal strength

The paper focuses on time-variant longitudinal strength of bulk carriers under corrosion wastage, applying both Taylor series expansion method and Monte Carlo simulation. Hull girder section modulus and ultimate bending moment capacity are determined, by classical beam theory and the commonly applied incremental-iterative approach, respectively. Two main aspects are fully discussed and investigated, according to the final recommendations of last ISSC Report. The former regards the covariance between annual corrosion rates of individual structural members, commonly assumed as uncorrelated. Really, as it is conceivable that a certain correlation exists, three different cases are investigated: uncorrelated variables, fully correlated variables, full correlation between structural members belonging to the same category of compartments. The latter investigates the probability density function of both hull girder section modulus and ultimate bending capacity, because the Central Limit Theorem cannot be applied when correlation among random variables exists. Finally, as a test example, the bulk carrier section, presented in the last ISSC benchmark study, is analysed.     

Distributed computing approaches for large‐scale probit‐based stochastic user equilibrium problems

Applications of probit‐based stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) principle on large‐scale networks have been largely limited because of the overwhelming computational burden in solving its stochastic network loading problem. A two‐stage Monte Carlo simulation method is recognized to have satisfactory accuracy level when solving this stochastic network loading. This paper thus works on the acceleration of the Monte Carlo simulation method via using distributed computing system. Three distributed computing approaches are then adopted on the workload partition of the Monte Carlo simulation method. Wherein, the first approach allocates each processor in the distributed computing system to solve each trial of the simulation in parallel and in turns, and the second approach assigns all the processors to solve the shortest‐path problems in one trial of the Monte Carlo simulation concurrently. The third approach is a combination of the first two, wherein both different trials of the Monte Carlo simulation as well as the shortest path problems in one trial are solved simultaneously. Performances of the three approaches are comprehensively tested by the Sioux‐Falls network and then a randomly generated network example. It shows that computational time for the probit‐based SUE problem can be largely reduced by any of these three approaches, and the first approach is found out to be superior to the other two. The first approach is then selected to calculate the probit‐based SUE problem on a large‐scale network example. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于粘弹性阻尼层随机性的自由阻尼层板的振动和阻尼分析

本文基于粘弹性阻尼层的随机性用Monte Carlo直接抽样法对自由阻尼层板的振动和阻尼进行了分析研究。分析中随机变量取正态分布。针对不同的阻尼层厚度分别考察了复弹性模量的实部、虚部、材料的损耗因子的影响。考察了整体性和局部单元性阻尼导厚度的影响。结果表明，粘弹性材料弹性模量的随机性对结构固有频率的影响不大，对模态损耗因子影响较大；不论是整体的还是局部单元的，阻尼层厚度的随机性对模态损耗因子的影响很显著。因此粘弹性阻尼层的随机性对抑制结构共振响应和声辐射的影响是较大的。阻尼层厚度局部单元随机性影响表明了对阻尼结构采用随机分析的必要性。     

基于 MCMC的导弹多阶段可靠性评估*

针对导弹在研制试验中存在多阶段、样本量小而造成传统评估误差大的问题,建立了基于模糊理论、Bayes方法和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗法（MCMC）的可靠性评估模型。根据专家信息和模糊理论确定可靠性先验分布;并利用Bayes公式得到可靠度后验分布函数;结合试验多阶段的特点,通过 MCMC模型对不同阶段导弹的可靠性进行评估,其中利用Gibbs抽样算法对模型进行求解。通过算例分析,验证了模型的有效性,为可靠性增长评估提供了新的思路。     

基于全周期抽样的搜索自适应Monte Carlo重要抽样法的船舶总纵强度可靠性研究

引入随机过程理论,确定表征船舶总纵弯曲载荷和强度的随机变量的概率分布及统计特征,针对船体梁总纵弯曲的失效模式,提出全周期抽样的搜索自适应Monte Carlo重要抽样法进行船体总纵强度可靠性分析;该方法对传统的Monte Carlo法进行改进,有效地平衡了Monte Carlo方法的计算速度与计算精度之间的矛盾,利用较少的抽样次数可得到更加理想的抽样密度函数和收敛速度更快、精度更高的失效概率计算结果;最后以某军用艇为例,分别采用本文方法与JC法进行船体总纵强度可靠性评估,并对计算结果进行了比对分析.     

The Computer Simulation System for Range Distribution of various Implantat

IntroductionIonimPlanation,whichhasbeenestablishedasanimptwdopingmethodintosemiconductoratfluenceslowerthanl0I6ions/Cm2andWhichisanindispensabletechnologyinlnyescaleintegration(LSI)manufcturing,haslat0lyattractedconsiderableattentionasasdsemodificationProcessforvariousmaterials,pwhcularlyformetals.HighfiuenceimPlanationofreactiveionsintomatCrialsleadstothefOrmationofchemicalcompoundsandmetastablephase,suchasAlNandTffowhichhaveultrahighhardnessandgoodresistanccagainstwearresulhnginthegreat…     

基于纵向裂隙修正的岩体三维裂隙模拟及连通性分析

隧道建设过程中，掌握隧道围岩中裂隙的分布及连通性情况，对于合理选择施工方法和支护方案等环节至关重要。从隧道建设的需求出发，建立岩体的三维裂隙模型，并对裂隙的连通性进行分析。基于现场实测裂隙各项参数服从的分布规律，采用蒙特卡洛算法模拟产生裂隙的三维数据，使用空间薄圆盘表示裂隙，生成裂隙的三维模型。通过与竖向钻孔数据对比，对基础模型进行修正（筛选），找到最符合实际情况的模型。之后，运用空间几何原理，通过圆盘之间的相互关系分析裂隙的连通性，并运用C++编程实现连通性判别计算。通过建立一种从分析任意2个圆盘之间几何关系入手的连通性分析方法，实现裂隙的连通性分析。     

V2G技术实时功率容量预测研究

针对电动汽车入网特性具有较强空间随机性及时间随机性的问题,基于蒙特卡洛随机模拟法,随机抽取了调度区域内不同类型电动汽车的日行驶里程及充放电起始时间节点,提出了V2G系统实时功率容量预测模型。以上海地区为例,预测了一天24时段V2G系统实时功率容量,结合相关政策及统计数据分析并验证了V2G技术的可行性。总结了我国V2G技术的发展趋势。