Finding time‐robust fuel‐efficient paths for a call‐taxi in a stochastic city road network

Intra‐city commuting is being revolutionized by call‐taxi services in many developing countries such as India. A customer requests a taxi via phone, and it arrives at the right time and at the right location for the pick‐up. This mode of intra‐city travel has become one of the most reliable and convenient modes of transportation for customers traveling for business and non‐business purposes. The increased number of vehicles on city roads and raising fuel costs has prompted a new type of transportation logistics problem of finding a fuel‐efficient and quickest path for a call‐taxi through a city road network, where the travel times are stochastic. The stochastic travel time of the road network is induced by obstacles such as the traffic signals and intersections. The delay and additional fuel consumption at each of these obstacles are calculated that are later imputed to the total travel time and fuel consumption of a path. A Monte‐Carlo simulation‐based approach is proposed to identify unique fuel‐efficient paths between two locations in a city road network where each obstacle has a delay distribution. A multi‐criteria score is then assigned to each unique path based on the probability that the path is fuel efficient, the average travel time of the path and the coefficient of variation of the travel times of the path. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于随机预测的青岛海湾大桥桥墩防腐维修措施成本优化

以氯离子渗透理论和全寿命周期成本理论为基础,采用蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法,对海工混凝土桥墩的维护维修措施进行了对比分析,以期在保证安全性、适用性的前提下达到降低维修维护成本的目的.首先对青岛海湾大桥桥墩使用寿命进行随机预测;其次,对单项维护维修措施进行随机模拟;第三,对各种措施综合使用方案进行随机模拟;最后,计算各种综合方...     

高速公路资产综合优化管理研究

从道路管理者和道路使用者的需求入手,尝试建立了基于资产性能最优与投资效益最大的路面和桥梁综合优化管理模型;选取算例利用遗传算法通过MATLAB对所建立的模型进行了求解,验证了算法的可行性,同时表明遗传算法较一般的数学规划方法在模型求解过程中呈现出更大的优越性.在利用综合优化管理模型找到最佳投资养护方案的基础上,依照推荐...     

轨道交通AFC系统设备可靠性预测与仿真

城市轨道交通AFC系统设备,可靠性是1个概率问题,具有不确定性。应用马尔可夫方法的无后效性原理,建立了AFC设备的故障预测模型。在模型建立的基础上,采用蒙特卡罗方法进行仿真实现,为系统年度维护计划提供依据。     

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为考察出行信息对道路网络出行时间可靠性的改善效果,将出行者划分为“有ATIS接收装置”和“无ATIS接收装置”两类,且均以随机方式选择路径,运用混合网络随机用户均衡建模理论构建了信息诱导下的出行路径选择模型.从路段容量的实际变化规律出发,假定其服从截尾正态分布,基于Monte Carlo仿真技术和网络均衡流求解算法,建立了信息影响下的道路网络出行时间可靠性评估方法.数值分析结果表明：道路网络出行时间可靠性随出行信息质量和信息系统的市场渗透率增加而递增,但其边际影响递减;对于交通需求水平高的道路网路,信息的提供对网络出行时间可靠性的改进更加明显.     

蒙特卡洛概率分析法在高边坡稳定计算中的应用

以某高边坡为研究对象,确定边坡坡率进行放坡处理和加固设计,采用蒙特卡洛概率分析法对边坡放坡后和治理后的稳定性进行分析,并与传统的极限平衡法计算结果进行了对比,两种计算方法具有相当的一致性。蒙特卡洛概率分析法能较为准确、全面评价边坡的稳定性,同时也是对传统极限平衡分析的进一步验证。     

A multi-criteria decision method for the analysis of the Motorways of the Sea: the application to the case of France and Spain on the Atlantic Coast

Despite European Union (EU) political support to identify the most feasible Motorways of the Sea, the final decision can only be made by Private Shipping Companies, which are operators of a unique stretch of the intermodal chain. This paper provides a multi-criteria decision method to identify the most suitable Motorways of the Sea taking into account the competitiveness of whole intermodal routes versus the alternative of road transport from the loader’s perspective. The analysis is carried out assuming a ‘many-to-many’ transport model. Firstly indexes of time and cost were defined and evaluated for every available route in the model in accordance with a multi-criteria decision matrix. Secondly, through a Monte Carlo simulation a sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to evaluate the influence on the results of the forecast assumed to construct the matrix. The results obtained are not only quantitative, but also qualitative. The development of intermodal routes via Motorways of the Sea is especially relevant for the peripheral EU countries. Due to the relevance of the freight flow between France and Spain and the congestion of their connections through the Pyrenees, the method proposed was applied to the analysis of this particular case     

Au40 Pd20合金原子团簇惰性气体氛围凝聚动力学行为研究

采用蒙特卡洛方法,结合Tight-binding和Lennard-Jones作用势,对Ar原子氛围中初始随机分布的40个Au原子和20个Pd原子体系的凝聚动力学行为进行了研究．Ar原子氛围对合金团簇的形成过程及其形貌尺寸有重要影响,计算表明：不同的Ar原子氛围得到的Au40 Pd20合金原子团簇凝聚结构形貌不同;在降温退火过程中, Ar原子密度大时,得到的Au40 Pd20合金原子团簇结构更加紧凑,且Au40 Pd20合金团簇凝聚相变温度更高;而恒温退火过程中,则发现较高温度时能得到较为紧凑的合金团簇结构,Ar原子密度越大,系统到达平衡的动力学时间更短．模拟结果能为惰性气体冷凝方法中实现合金团簇结构与形貌可控制备提供参考．     

舰载反鱼雷鱼雷对抗行为分析与建模

为提高舰载反鱼雷鱼雷（ATT）对抗鱼雷的作战效率,研究ATT在多种方案下拦截鱼雷的问题。针对以往ATT二维对抗态势模型的不足,建立三维立体空间下的ATT运动学模型、鱼雷运动模型、ATT/鱼雷自导模型以及误差模型,运用MATLAB工具对ATT的对抗过程进行推演,并采用蒙特卡洛法定量分析ATT发射距离对不同拦截方案下拦截概率的影响。仿真结果表明,该模型可以用于舰载ATT对抗方案的定量评价。     

山地城市应急救护中心选址研究

针对山地城市的路网结构特殊性,根据山地城市路网模型,提出了山地城市道路的连通率的计算方法,然后基于蒙特卡罗的模拟算法对震后路网可靠指标进行评估,并对山城重庆某局域路网进行了震后路网可靠性评估,分析评估结果为应急救护中心的选址提供依据.