江苏省交通事故时间分布分析

根据江苏省有关交通事故数据,利用统计方法对交通事故发生的时间特征进行分析。通过分析交通事故年时间分布规律的波峰曲线,得出江苏省交通事故发生数量开始振荡变化,逐年上升的势头有望于近期遏制。通过分析交通事故、月、周、小时时间分布曲线,得出交通事故高峰小时出现在交通量高峰小时之后的9~12h、14~16h,两者不重合。死亡高峰时段(危险时段)多发生在18~21h的3h内。研究结论对不同时间内如何采取不同的安全对策来降低江苏省交通事故具有指导作用。     

基于Prover的联锁软件形式化验证过程研究

计算机联锁系统是铁路信号控制系统的核心设备,是有着苛刻安全要求的复杂控制系统。本文采用Prover形式化开发工具对联锁软件安全需求进行形式化验证。通过模型检验的形式化验证方法,遍历系统输入变量的所有状态空间.验证联锁特定应用满足系统安全需求,确保系统的安全性得以正确实现。在保证系统安全性的基础上,以全状态空间查找反例的检验方法进一步提升产品的质量。     

Estimating traffic volumes for signalized intersections using connected vehicle data

Recently connected vehicle (CV) technology has received significant attention thanks to active pilot deployments supported by the US Department of Transportation (USDOT). At signalized intersections, CVs may serve as mobile sensors, providing opportunities of reducing dependencies on conventional vehicle detectors for signal operation. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on scenarios that penetration rates of CVs reach certain level, e.g., 25%, which may not be feasible in the near future. How to utilize data from a small number of CVs to improve traffic signal operation remains an open question. In this work, we develop an approach to estimate traffic volume, a key input to many signal optimization algorithms, using GPS trajectory data from CV or navigation devices under low market penetration rates. To estimate traffic volumes, we model vehicle arrivals at signalized intersections as a time-dependent Poisson process, which can account for signal coordination. The estimation problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem given multiple observed trajectories from CVs approaching to the intersection. An expectation maximization (EM) procedure is derived to solve the estimation problem. Two case studies were conducted to validate our estimation algorithm. One uses the CV data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project, in which around 2800 CVs were deployed in the City of Ann Arbor, MI. The other uses vehicle trajectory data from users of a commercial navigation service in China. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation is found to be 9–12%, based on benchmark data manually collected and data from loop detectors. Considering the existing scale of CV deployments, the proposed approach could be of significant help to traffic management agencies for evaluating and operating traffic signals, paving the way of using CVs for detector-free signal operation in the future.     

Theory of safety surrogates using vehicle trajectories in macroscopic and microscopic settings: Application to dynamic message signs controlled traffic at work zones

This paper presents a new mathematical framework for obtaining quantitative safety measure using macroscopic as well as microscopic traffic data. The safety surrogate obtained from the macroscopic data is in terms of analysis performed on vehicle trajectories obtained from the macroscopic data. This method of obtaining safety measure can be used for many different types of applications. The safety surrogate for the traffic dynamics are developed in terms of a new concept of Negative Speed Differentials (NSD) that involve a convolution of vehicle speed function obtained from vehicle trajectories and then performing the integration of the square of the output for its negative values. The framework is applicable to microscopic traffic dynamics as well where we can use car following models for microscopic dynamics or the LWR model for macroscopic dynamics. This paper then presents the use of this new safety surrogate on the development of a feedback control law for controlling traffic in work zones using Dynamic Message Signs. A hybrid dynamics model is used to represent the switching dynamics due to changing DMS messages. A feedback control design for choosing those messages is presented as well as a simple simulation example to show its application.     

Multi-criteria optimization of traffic signals: Mobility,safety, and environment

Two-dimensional multi-objective optimizations have been used for decades for the problems in traffic engineering although only few times so far in the optimization of signal timings. While the other engineering and science disciplines have utilized visualization of 3-dimensional Pareto fronts in the optimization studies, we have not seen many of those concepts applied to traffic signal optimization problems. To bridge the gap in the existing knowledge this study presents a methodology where 3-dimensional Pareto Fronts of signal timings, which are expressed through mobility, (surrogate) safety, and environmental factors, are optimized by use of an evolutionary algorithm. The study uses a segment of 5 signalized intersections in West Valley City, Utah, to test signal timings which provide a balance between mobility, safety and environment. In addition, a set of previous developed signal timing scenarios, including some of the Connected Vehicle technologies such as GLOSA, were conducted to evaluate the quality of the 3-dimensional Pareto front solutions. The results show success of 3-dimensinal Pareto fronts moving towards optimality. The resulting signal timing plans do not show large differences between themselves but all improve on the signal timings from the field, significantly. The commonly used optimization of standard single-objective functions shows robust solutions. The new set of Connected Vehicle technologies also shows promising benefits, especially in the area of reducing inter-vehicular friction. The resulting timing plans from two optimization sets (constrained and unconstrained) show that environmental and safe signal timings coincide but somewhat contradict mobility. Further research is needed to apply similar concepts on a variety of networks and traffic conditions before generalizing findings.     

一种基于卫星导航的列车初始定位方法研究

在西北环境恶劣地区,线路区间往往较少设置实体应答器,列车在区间重启时需要长距离低速运行.经过实体应答器后才能确定列车位置。针对该问题.本文提出一种基于卫星导航系统和车载电子地图的列车初始定位方法。该方法利用轨道约束算法和概率学方法,设计满足铁路安全标准要求的列车初始定位方法。     

基于模糊层次的铁路混装货物装运安全评价研究

随着客户运输需求的多样化升级,采用铁路混装货物装运模式在提升铁路运输效率、吸引多样货源等方面相较于单一品名装运显示出一定的优越性,同时混装货物装运面临的安全压力相较于单一品名装运出现骤增。为保障铁路混装货物装运安全,在阐述混装货物装运特点及安全控制要点的基础上,从"人防""物防""技防"3方面构建混装货物装运安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,并利用模糊综合评价法对铁路混装货物装运安全进行评价,通过实例验证该评价方法的实用性及有效性,为铁路混装货物装运安全评价提供依据。     

LNG码头应急通道与应急锚地研究

本文针对LNG应急逃离情况以及国内LNG应急锚地使用现状,总结分析国内、外LNG应急锚地布置情况;结合江苏滨海LNG码头通航条件,提出LNG应急通道及应急锚地三种布置方案,通过操船模拟试验论证比选并得出结论,供类似工程参考。     

Key technologies of ship remote control system in inland waterways under ship-shore cooperation conditions北大核心CSCD

［Objective ］ To meet the requirements of remotely controlling ship in curved, narrow and crowded inland waterways, this paper proposes an approach that consists of CNN-based algorithms and knowledge based models under ship-shore cooperation conditions. ［Method］On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of ship-shore cooperation, the proposed approach realizes autonomous perception of the environment with visual simulation at the core and navigation decision-making control based on deep reinforcement learning, and finally constructs an artificial intelligence system composed of image deep learning processing, navigation situation cognition, route steady-state control and other functions. Remote control and short-time autonomous navigation of operating ships are realized under inland waterway conditions, and remote control of container ships and ferries is carried out. ［Results］The proposed approach is capable of replacing manual work by remote orders or independent decision-making, as well as realizing independent obstacle avoidance, with a consistent deviation of less than 20 meters. ［Conclusions］The developed prototype system carries out the remote control operation demonstration of the above ship types in such waterways as the Changhu Canal Shenzhou line and the Yangtze River, proving that a complete set of algorithms with a CNN and reinforcement learning at the core can independently extract key navigation information, construct obstacle avoidance and control awareness, and lay the foundation for inland river intelligent navigation systems. © 2022 Journal of Clinical Hepatology. All rights reserved.     

轨道安全监测中传感器优化配置研究

为了研究轨道结构安全监测中传感器的合理配置方法,确保城市轨道交通安全运营,通过建立桥上交叉渡线道岔模型和钢轨应变传递误差最小的目标函数,提出传感器测点选择依据和监测方案评价标准,保证监测方案的经济性、合理性。结论表明:模型数据曲线可以指导监测系统的测点位置选择;随着传感器测点数量增加,监测误差逐渐减小,但在误差比率的"拐点"后增加单位个数传感器带来的收益降低;通过建立误差最小准则的目标函数,结合误差指标可以评价和优化传感器布设方案;钢轨位移、附加力等指标的监测方案也可以通过本文方法确定。