轨道交通开发利益还原计算方法研究

在介绍以往研究内容的基础上,建立计算轨道交通开发对土地价值增长影响的模型,选取地块中心点离最近的轨道交通车站的距离和离最近的轨道交通换乘站的距离作为模型的自变量,土地价值增长大小作为模型的因变量,并根据已有的调查数据,建立新的地价函数关系模型。该方法提高了模型的适用性,并且能够获得更好的数据结果。     

外塌陷角坐标系与摩尔极限应力圆

外塌陷角坐标系是以岩体外塌陷角α和主应力p 0为因变量的岩石力学运算系统。摩尔极限应力圆是以岩石内摩擦角φ和主应力σ1,σ3为因变量的岩石力学运算系统。2个系统的基础力学参数存在对应转换关系。外塌陷角坐标系表示岩体自然塌陷、岩石试验、围岩运动力学关系具有真实统一性。摩尔极限应力圆在岩石试验中能反映岩石基本力学性质,但是几何图形表示的应力不符合一般应力定义,基本公式存在缺陷,岩石试验主、次应力与围岩主、次应力没有建立对应关系。     

内河航运项目效益分析

内河航运的明显优势是运量大、能耗低、环保、安全,内河航运建设项目在提高内河航道通过能力的同时,对防洪、灌溉、城市建设等各方面都有贡献。虽然水运的社会效益有目共睹,但当涉及到项目投资评估时,却一直缺乏将这些效益量化的手段,因此内河航运项目在项目筛选和投资决策阶段失去了竞争力。文章对内河航运项目效益分析和经济评价的现状和现有的一些方法做以介绍,提出改进现行内河航运项目效益分析和经济评价的一些建议。     

安徽省公路沥青路面再生技术的应用及其经济社会效益分析

常规的沥青路面养护维修方式会产生大量的旧沥青路面废弃材料,对环境造成不良影响,不仅增加了工程投资,也造成巨大的资源压力。该文以安徽省干线公路沥青路面再生技术为例,分析了沥青路面厂拌热再生技术、水泥就地冷再生技术、全深式厂拌冷再生技术在安徽省干线公路养护维修中所带来的巨大社会、环境和经济效益。     

用于智能驾驶系统评价的乘员损伤模型

只有较少的交通事故数据资源被用于建立基于碰撞速度信息的乘员损伤模型，致使所得到的模型精度差。为此，提出了基于车辆变形深度的乘员损伤模型。对美国不同制造年代和车辆级别的事故数据进行聚类分析，论证出车辆变形深度与乘员损伤风险具有相关性。以车辆变形深度为自变量，通过回归分析得到乘员损伤模型。不同种类车辆的乘员损伤模型拟合精度R²约为0.9，证明了该模型的正确性。为进一步验证，以此模型为基础，评价智能驾驶系统的有效性。以自动紧急制动系统为例，对比基于变形深度和速度变化量信息2种方法的有效性计算结果。结果表明：2组结果的平均误差不超过1%，验证了基于变形深度的乘员损伤模型的准确性。该模型仅需要事故数据库中准确的变形深度信息，能够获得更多的事故数据支持，从而可以更好地适应于不同类别智能驾驶系统的评价需求。     

A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a formal, structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, property and marine environment, by using risk and cost–benefit assessments. For the application of this methodology to the rule-making process, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) presented the Interim Guidelines, which describe procedures of FSA and inputs/outputs of each procedure in detail. This paper basically deals with an application of FSA methodology according to the IMO's Interim Guidelines to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers, which was carried out as a cooperative research between Korean Register of Shipping and Seoul National University. As results of this application study, 18 hazards are identified and 32 risk control measures are devised to reduce the associated risks. Potential risks, costs and benefits when some Risk Control Options are introduced are evaluated in monetary unit of US $. Finally, some discussions and recommendations based on experiences are also given for both future work and better application of this FSA methodology to the rule-making process.     

Dynamic diurnal social taxonomy of urban environments using data from a geocoded time use activity-travel diary and point-based business establishment inventory

In this paper, we explore the diurnal dynamics of joint activity participation in a small city in Pennsylvania, USA, using behavioral data and an inventory of business establishments. We account for the variation caused by the collective impact of social, temporal and spatial choices of individuals to produce predicted space–time visualizations of activity participation. The focus is on how social contexts of an activity impact the temporal and spatial decisions regarding the activity locations and how this impact varies depending on activity types. A comparison across activity types and social interaction types is made among spatial patterns during a day. The CentreSIM dataset, which is a household-based activity diary survey collected in Centre County (Pennsylvania, USA) in 2003, provides very detailed social interaction information enabling the analysis of social, spatial and temporal aspects of activity participation. In this paper we use this information to develop a spatio-temporal interpolation method and demonstration based on kriging. In this way, we extract the dynamic social taxonomy of places from the behavioral information in the dataset and suggest how urban and transportation models can be informed from the dynamics of places by observing “what is taking place” (activities being pursued in the context of this paper) combined with “what exists” (business establishments) or “what is available” (businesses that are open). The method here can also be used to improve the design of urban environments (e.g., filling gaps in desired activity locations), manage specific places (e.g., extending the opening and closing times of businesses), study transportation policies that are sensitive to time of day (e.g., pricing of parking to discourage crowding and traffic congestion), and modeling of spatio-temporal decisions of social activities in travel demand models (e.g., to guide the development of model specification and representation of the space in which behavioral models are applied).     

西南地区山岭隧道自动化变形监测技术的效益分析

为了更好地指导山岭隧道变形监测技术选用，提高监测效率并节约成本,从技术和经济效益2个方面对比分析人工监测和自动化监测，阐述各监测方式的技术性和经济性特征，总结不同应用条件下应优先选用的监测技术类型，并提出一套可行的变形监测技术选用程序。研究成果可为现阶段西南地区隧道工程变形监测技术类型选用提供参考。     

内河航道工程财务效益探讨

以杭嘉湖航道网改造工程为实例,采用敏感性分析和概率分析的方法,分别按改扩建项目和新建项目,探讨不同收费方式下内河航道工程的财务效益。研究结果表明,运量大的长湖申线有一定的财务效益,项目自身具有生存能力,但运量小的六平申线,财务效益差,投资决策应注重其社会效益。     

长衡客运专线速度目标值的选择

根据长衡客运专线所处位置和在路网中的作用,研究确定不同速度目标值采用的标准,以及确定长衡客运专线速度目标值应考虑的要素。