基于区间矩阵的时态关系的简化方法

用区间代数能表示不确定的时态关系,可以方便地应用于时态推理,表达能力强。将区间代数及区间矩阵中有端点相等的基本关系去掉,只保留现实世界中真正可能发生的基本关系,大大降低了问题的复杂性,然后,对每个原子矩阵建立一个特征集,用特征集的并运算来取代矩阵的复合运算,提高了计算效率。     

潜艇流场数值模拟及不确定度分析

为了分析计算流体力学预测结果的可信度问题,采用雷诺平均N-S方程,结合SSTκ-ω湍流模型,对验证研究用的美国DARPA潜艇模型SUBOFF光体湍流场进行数值计算,预报了艇体压力系数,计算流体力学预报值与实验基准数据有较好地吻合,并对雷诺平均N-S方程法进行了验证与确认,不确定度为1.52%.本文相关计算网格数20万左右,单机运行时间大约在2 h后得到收敛值,充分显示了计算流体力学方法在潜艇初步设计中预测水动力性能的高效性、可用性与可信性.     

Confidence bounds on structural reliability estimations for offshore platforms

Second-order estimates to measure platform reliability are generated and used to provide an additional space to select safety margins appropriate to the owner's perception or for risk-averse managers. The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the parameters of an offshore platform are explicitly considered in the reliability analysis and the platform structural reliability becomes a random variable, assessing then the beneficial effects of a reduction on these uncertainties. One of these benefits is for risk-aversive managers who often demand additional room to make conservative decisions regarding reliability estimations. Proposed here is a procedure to generate the frequency diagram of platform reliability with the use of confidence bounds to support reliability and cost decisions based on percentiles instead of mean values. The concepts are illustrated through a typical offshore platform in Mexico. The frequency diagram of the platform reliability index is built for several alternative designs and three levels of epistemic uncertainty. The results may be applied for decision making on new designs and also on the assessment and optimal inspection, retrofit, and decommissioning of existing platforms.     

Robustness of autonomous underwater vehicle control in variable working conditions

The performance of the control systems of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the presence of parameter variations was studied. With an AUV working at different operating speeds and in different ocean environments, the physical parameters such as speed, hydrodynamic coefficients, or inertias may be perturbed from their nominal values. The vehicle control systems can be modeled as systems with parameter uncertainty. An existing robust control method, which uses the robustness properties of polynomials, was used for this system to calculate the permissible ranges of variation in the parameters. The method was applied to the Naval Postgraduate School AUV II and the results were verified by simulating the motion control of the vehicle under the influence of parameter perturbations.     

基于Bayesian的舰船战场损伤评估模型研究

针对舰船战场损伤评估的多元信息特点,建立了在观测操作条件下的舰船战场损伤评估的贝叶斯网络推理算法.分析了舰船战场损伤过程的不确定性,在所建立的贝叶斯网络模型的基础上,提出运用删减法来降低网络的复杂性.实例表明了该算法的适用性、有效性和可操作性.     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

Modal split models based on car availability: the application of such models in studies of medium sized towns

This paper discusses the need for a new approach to urban transportation modelling in recognition that at least in medium sized towns the choice of model is largely dominated by car availability.     

A cognitive framework to plan for the future of transportation

ABSTRACT

Automated, connected, electrified, and shared mobility will be cornerstones of the transportation future. Research to quantify the potential benefits and drawbacks of practice, and to identify barriers to adoption, is the first step in any strategic plan for their adoption. However, uncertainties, complexity, interdependence, and the multidisciplinary nature of emerging transportation technologies make it difficult to organize and identify focused research. The contribution of this work is a cognitive framework to help planners and policymakers organize broad topics, reveal challenges, discover ideas for solutions, quantify potential impacts, and identify implications to guide preparation strategies. The authors provide example cognitive frameworks for connected, automated, and electrified vehicles.     

A connectivity reliability-cost approach for path selection in the maritime transportation of China’s crude oil imports

The focus of this paper is the selection of paths for the maritime transportation of crude oil. In addition to transportation cost, the nodes in a maritime transportation network are always affected by extreme events. Therefore, connectivity reliability must be considered during path selection. In this paper, uncertainty variables are introduced to describe the connectivity reliability of nodes under the influence of extreme events, and an uncertain bi-objective programming model with connectivity reliability maximization and transportation cost minimization as objectives is established for path selection. China’s maritime transportation network for crude oil imports is used as a case study to validate the model, the effects of variations in the model parameters on path selection, transportation cost and connectivity reliability are discussed in the case study. The research results provide a basis on which for government decision makers to better plan crude oil transportation strategies.