Expanding scope of hybrid choice models allowing for mixture of social influences and latent attitudes: Application to intended purchase of electric cars

Recently, policy makers’ expectations about the role of electric cars in reducing emissions have risen substantially. In parallel, academic research on purchase intentions has dramatically increased. Originally, most studies have focused on utility attributes and price. More recently, several hybrid choice models have been estimated to include the impact of attitudes on choice probabilities. In addition, a few studies have caught the attention to social influence. In contributing to this line of research, this paper reports the results of an expanded hybrid choice, which simultaneously estimated all these different effects in a single integrated model of purchase intention. Results indicate that the model performs well. Costs considerations contribute most to the utility of electric cars. Social influence is less important, but there is also evidence that people tend to take it into consideration when there are positive public opinions about electric cars and the market share becomes almost half of friends of their social network. The intention to purchase an electric car is also influenced by attitudes about environmental concerns and technology acceptance.     

基于OpenGL选择机制的模型变换组件的实现

为了便于用鼠标控制模型的平移、缩放和旋转变换,构建了三种模型变换组件,将3D场景中对模型的多种变换命令用几何图元进行可视化表示,并利用OpenGL选择机制,实现了各种模型变换命令的快速鼠标选择与切换,能够使用鼠标灵活地进行多种模型变换.这些组件已经应用到所开发的虚拟环境及仿真软件中,方便了用户操作,精简了用户界面.     

Influence of some vehicle and track parameters on the environmental vibrations induced by railway traffic

A study is performed on the influence of some typical railway vehicle and track parameters on the level of ground vibrations induced in the neighbourhood. The results are obtained from a previously validated simulation framework considering in a first step the vehicle/track subsystem and, in a second step, the response of the soil to the forces resulting from the first analysis. The vehicle is reduced to a simple vertical 3-dof model, corresponding to the superposition of the wheelset, the bogie and the car body. The rail is modelled as a succession of beam elements elastically supported by the sleepers, lying themselves on a flexible foundation representing the ballast and the subgrade. The connection between the wheels and the rails is realised through a non-linear Hertzian contact. The soil motion is obtained from a finite/infinite element model. The investigated vehicle parameters are its type (urban, high speed, freight, etc.) and its speed. For the track, the rail flexural stiffness, the railpad stiffness, the spacing between sleepers and the rail and sleeper masses are considered. In all cases, the parameter value range is defined from a bibliographic browsing. At the end, the paper proposes a table summarising the influence of each studied parameter on three indicators: the vehicle acceleration, the rail velocity and the soil velocity. It namely turns out that the vehicle has a serious influence on the vibration level and should be considered in prediction models.     

基于船舶轴系扭振的船用主机气缸动力输出平衡性分析

基于船用柴油机气缸动力输出平衡性评价的基础理论,对某船开展实船轴系扭振测试,在对轴系扭振时域波形图和扭振数据进行分析和计算的基础上,得出该船主机气缸动力输出不平衡变化曲线及相关结论,为进一步应用船舶轴系扭振进行船用柴油机气缸动力输出平衡性研究提供参考。     

水下爆炸气泡激起的船体鞭状运动

本文揭示了水下非接触爆炸产生的气泡脉冲缴起细长形船体鞭状响应运动的现象。考虑到了水下爆炸气泡的脉冲多次性，迁移和水面效应，计算结果与弹性船模试验结果进行了对比，符合程度令人满意。     

降雨量对OD 行程时间可靠性影响分析

为详细研究降雨量对OD行程时间可靠性的影响，基于Uber 出行共享的3 年美国波士顿10 对OD行程时间数据及WeatherUnderground 网站提供的小时历史天气，构建了OD行程时间高斯混合模型(GMM). 模型参数利用EM法进行求解，K 值根据K-S 检验后的P 值 (大于0.500 0)进行确定，模型分位数利用二分法进行求解. 提出一种基于缓冲指数(BI)的新指标——缓冲指数变化率(BIVR)作为定量评估指标. 结果表明：降雨会降低总体OD行程时间可靠性，降低效果随降雨量提高而增强，但增强效果并不明显；尽管可能性较低，但当降雨处于次要影响因素时可能提高可靠性；小雨天气可视为正常天气；雨天可靠性显著低于正常天气，居民在雨天(除小雨外)出行应预留更多时间.     

基于驾驶人特性的双车道跟驰模型稳定性分析

为了研究交通拥堵问题，了解交通拥挤形成的过程及驾驶员自身特性对双车道交通流稳定性的影响.本文基于复杂网络聚类同步理论，对一类基于驾驶员特性的双车道跟驰模型的稳定性进行研究. 通过设计适当的控制器使得基于驾驶人特性的双车道车辆跟驰模型趋于稳定，并得到了模型稳定性的条件.此外，在双车道上的车辆受到随机外部扰动的情形下，利用具有外部扰动的复杂网络自适应H∞ 聚类同步理论，研究了外部扰动情形下基于驾驶人特性的双车道车辆跟驰模型的稳定性.最后，采用MATLAB仿真技术进行数值模拟，验证所设计控制器对双车道交通流稳定性的影响及不同的驾驶员性格特性对交通流运行的影响.     

Path flow estimator for planning applications in small communities

This paper presents an alternative planning framework to model and forecast network traffic for planning applications in small communities, where limited resources debilitate the development and applications of the conventional four-step travel demand forecasting model. The core idea is to use the Path Flow Estimator (PFE) to estimate current and forecast future traffic demand while taking into account of various field and planning data as modeling constraints. Specifically, two versions of PFE are developed: a base year PFE for estimating the current network traffic conditions using field data and planning data, if available, and a future year PFE for predicting future network traffic conditions using forecast planning data and the estimated base year origin–destination trip table as constraints. In the absence of travel survey data, the proposed method uses similar data (traffic counts and land use data) as a four-step model for model development and calibration. Since the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) trip generation rates and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) are both utilized in the modeling process, the analysis scope and results are consistent with those of common traffic impact studies and other short-range, localized transportation improvement programs. Solution algorithms are also developed to solve the two PFE models and integrated into a GIS-based software called Visual PFE. For proof of concept, two case studies in northern California are performed to demonstrate how the tool can be used in practice. The first case study is a small community of St. Helena, where the city’s planning department has neither an existing travel demand model nor the budget for developing a full four-step model. The second case study is in the city of Eureka, where there is a four-step model developed for the Humboldt County that can be used for comparison. The results show that the proposed approach is applicable for small communities with limited resources.     

地铁车站结构随机振动响应分析

基于地震反应的随机非确定性,运用基于概率统计方法的随机振动理论进行结构抗震分析,考察结构的动力可靠度,是一种合理的设计方法。运用虚拟激励法对青岛地铁五四广场站进行随机振动分析,避免了传统方法计算的冗繁,得到了具有统计意义的结构动力响应。考虑x向功率谱输入时,弯矩分布较为均匀;地铁结构体型变化较大的部位剪力明显增大;柱底剪力较小,边跨柱剪力小于中跨柱底剪力。考虑y向功率谱函数输入时,沿梁轴向剪力值逐渐增大,柱底剪力明显大于x向输入时的柱底剪力,边跨柱柱底剪力大于中跨柱底剪力。所得结论为地铁站这一复杂结构形式进行基于可靠度理论的设计提供了依据,可以作为同类设计的参考指导。     

城市轨道交通高峰线路客流协同控制方法

在线路客流控制中，需同时考虑各个车站控流方案的可执行性与协同性. 采用 Fisher 最优分割法确定合理客流控制时段，基于此建立以乘客总等待时间最少和旅客周转量最大为目标的线路客流协同控制线性规划模型. 基于成都地铁2 号线AFC数据进行实验，针对协同控流与非协同控流方案，以及不同客流控制时段划分方案下的协同控流方案进行对比实验. 算例中：协同控流方案在旅客周转量下降约1.0%的情况下，乘客总等待时间减少约 56.7%；基于Fisher 最优分割法确定的时段划分方案中协同控流方案在乘客总等待时间方面最优，并具有很好的可执行性.