基于四元船舶领域和避碰规则的碰撞危险度模型

为解决使用船舶领域计算碰撞危险度时所选取的船舶领域类型繁多，且碰撞危险度模型中对于目标船船舶领域与海上避碰规则等因素考虑较少的问题，提出基于四元船舶领域和海上避碰规则改进的碰撞危险度模糊评价模型。在计算碰撞危险度时考虑本船是否侵入目标船船舶领域，且根据海上避碰规则当本船为直航船时，判断目标船与本船是否为紧迫局面并将其作为计算因素加入模型。使用MATLAB进行仿真，结果表明改进的模糊评价模型能计算出更符合海上实情且满足海上避碰规则的碰撞危险度，为后续避碰决策研究提供更为准确的数据。     

基于功能定位的国际航空枢纽评价

针对我国国际枢纽机场未按照设计之初功能定位发展的现状,运用AHP法构建国际枢纽机场综合评价指标体系,将国际航空运输规模指标、国际节点网络连通度指标、枢纽功能指标、综合交通指标纳入体系当中。首先对国内外大型国际枢纽机场进行评价,其次对我国机场布局规划中的10个国际枢纽机场进行评价。结果表明我国国际枢纽机场国际业务发展、航空枢纽建设与国外对标机场有一定差距,与自身战略规划有所偏差,针对薄弱指标项基于自身优势给出发展建议。最后基于一市两场与机场群的视角,分析了如何根据自身功能定位进行协同发展问题。     

A choice model of airline passengers’ spending behaviour in the airport terminal

This study examines the influence of passengers’ travel-related factors, their intention to shop and the impact of socio-economic factors on their consumption behaviours while at the airport terminal. Three categories of consumption model – shopping, dining and airport entertainment – are developed to analyse different consumption behaviours. The results show that free time is the main factor that influences passengers to choose entertainment while waiting at the terminal, and the use of airline lounges has a negative influence on the extent of engagement in all three types of passenger consumption behaviour, especially dining. Furthermore, passengers’ dining expenditure has a positive effect on the extent of engagement in entertainment, but a negative influence on the extent of engagement in airport shopping. Passengers’ preferences of airport shopping area after they have cleared security is positively associated with the extent of engagement in both shopping and entertainment but negatively associated with the extent of engagement in dining activities.     

跨海通道影响下大连湾水域规划调整方案比选

介绍了受大连湾跨海交通工程影响而开展的大连湾水域规划调整方案比选研究过程。针对大连湾内水域通航环境,分析了港口及相关产业的发展趋势,综合预测了各港区通航代表船型。以大连湾跨海交通工程北桥南隧线位方案为边界条件,根据大连湾水域条件和通航需求,通过引入“具有一定保证率的通航代表船长”的概念,合理确定了跨海通道桥梁与锚地、航道边界的安全距离。给出3种调整方案并进行比选分析,提出了工程后续实施过程中需注意的问题。     

Atmospheric impact of ship traffic in four Adriatic-Ionian port-cities: Comparison and harmonization of different approaches

Shipping is a growing transport sector representing a relevant share of atmospheric pollutant emissions at global scale. In the Mediterranean Sea, shipping affects air quality of coastal urban areas with potential hazardous effects on both human health and climate. The high number of different approaches for investigating this aspect limits the comparability of results. Furthermore, limited information regarding the inter-annual trends of shipping impacts is available. In this work, an approach integrating emission inventory, numerical modelling (WRF-CAMx modelling system), and experimental measurements at high and low temporal resolution is used to investigate air quality shipping impact in the Adriatic/Ionian area focusing on four port-cities: Brindisi and Venice (Italy), Patras (Greece), and Rijeka (Croatia). Results showed shipping emissions of particulate matter (PM) and NOx comparable to road traffic emissions at all port-cities, with larger contributions to local SO₂ emissions. Contributions to PM_2.5 ranged between 0.5% (Rijeka) and 7.4% (Brindisi), those to PM₁₀ were between 0.3% (Rijeka) and 5.8% (Brindisi). Contributions to particle number concentration (PNC) showed an impact 2–4 times larger with respect to that on mass concentrations. Shipping impact on gaseous pollutants are larger than those to PM. The contribution to total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) concentrations was 82% in Venice and 56% in Brindisi, with a different partition gas-particle because of different meteorological conditions. The inter-annual trends analysis showed the primary contribution to PM concentrations decreasing, due to the implementation of the European legislation on the use of low-sulphur content fuels. This effect was not present on other pollutants like PAHs.     

The impact of alternative routeing and packaging scenarios on carbon and sulphate emissions in international wine distribution

There is a large body of research related to carbon footprint reduction in supply chains and logistics from a wide range of sectors; however the decarbonisation of freight transport is mostly explored from a single mode perspective and at a domestic/regional level. This paper takes into account a range of alternative transport modes, routes and methods with particular reference to UK wine imports from two regions: northern Italy and Southeast Australia. The research examines supply chain structures, costs and the environmental impact of international wine distribution to the UK. A number of options are evaluated to calculate the carbon footprint and sulphate emissions of alternative route, mode, method of carriage, and packaging combinations. The estimation of CO₂e emissions incorporates three main elements - cargo mass, distance and method of carriage; sulphate emissions are derived from actual ship routes, engine power and operational speeds. The bottling of wine either at source or close to destination is also taken into consideration. The key findings are: there are major differences between the environmental footprint of different routeing and packaging scenarios; the international shipping leg almost always has a much larger footprint than inland transport within the UK except in the hypothetical case of the rail shipments from Italy using flexitanks. With reference to sulphate, the lowest cost scenario among the sea maximizing options is also the sulphate minimising solution.     

Determinants of the probability of default: the case of the internationally listed shipping corporations

In this study, we use a sample of 192 listed shipping companies and employ a logit model in order to investigate the determinants of the probability of default. We enhance our analysis by isolating not only the cases of company liquidations but also those cases where companies had to change their legal status due to warning liquidity signals. Our key findings are in line with prior research and moreover we depict a changing trend in the marginal effects of relevant variables, on the probability of default. We further show, through an empirical application, how the obtained results can be used in a managerial decision-making process and in a bank credit underwriting process in order to assess the creditworthiness of a shipping company.     

Assessment of cost as a function of abatement options in maritime emission control areas

This paper assesses cost as a function of abatement options in maritime emission control areas (ECA). The first regulation of air pollutions from ships which came into effect in the late 1990s was not strict and could easily be met. However the present requirement (2015) for reduction of Sulfur content for all vessels, in combination with the required reduction of nitrogen and carbon emissions for new-built vessels, is an economic and technical challenge for the shipping industry. Additional complexity is added by the fact that the strictest nitrogen regulations are applicable only for new-built vessels from 2016 onwards which shall enter US or Canadian waters. This study indicates that there is no single answer to what is the best abatement option, but rather that the best option will be a function of engine size, annual fuel consumption in the ECA and the foreseen future fuel prices. However a low oil price, favors the options with the lowest capex, i.e. Marine Gas Oil (MGO) or Light Fuel Oil (LFO), while a high oil price makes the solutions which requires higher capex (investments) more attractive.     

Evaluation of foreign trade transport accessibility for Mainland China

The foreign trade transport accessibility (FTTA) of Mainland China to overseas regions is studied in terms of the shipping connectivity and achievable market scales. First, the concept of FTTA is defined. Second, the path choice behavior of shippers is analyzed, and a method to measure FTTA is proposed. Last, with 357 cities in Mainland China as the origins and eight overseas regions as the destinations, the FTTAs from origins to destinations are evaluated. The study is helpful to acquaint decision-makers with the FTTA’s spatial distribution and to offer information by which China can expand its export-oriented industry and optimize its port and shipping industries.     

Evaluation of total risk exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry

The empirical evaluation of maritime risk exposure is based on the monetary value at risk (MVR) that incorporates individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, insurable values related to various potential damages, and proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual risk exposure with insurance premiums for 2010–2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest risk exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total risk exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas risk exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (−2.0%) and passenger vessels (−11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (−1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (−1.4%). Comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most risk exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and the Document of Compliance companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime risks (excluding cargo) with under-insurance of risk by around 5% (about 1 billion USD per year), with some uncertainties remaining for actual loss fractions of the involved damages.