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为了更加准确而有效地描述复杂、时变的城市道路网络和交通状况,并且为道路网络功能的合理级配和缓解城市交通拥堵的局面提供一个切实可行的途径,本文提出了城市道路网络失效相关分析的方法。该方法是在采用改进的多路径交通分配得到的路网流量数据基础上,使用失效准则判定道路单元,再使用Monte Carlo方法和线性回归方法计算道路单元的失效概率和相关系数,最后结合概率网络估算技术判断道路网络失效的相关性。本文还具体结合一个测试网络给出了该方法的使用流程,并论证其可行性。而且分析了失效相关性的影响因素和道路网络功能级配与失效相关性之间的关系。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的轨道交通建设用混凝土受冻服役寿命分析

为对不同地区轨道交通混凝土受冻服役寿命进行预测,并揭示主要材料参数的影响规律,以冻融试验模型为基础,结合对气象数据的分析,建立了室内冻融与自然冻融间的关系。考虑材料参数变化的随机性,采用蒙特卡罗法,分析了水胶比、含气量和粉煤灰掺量等主要参数对轨道交通混凝土受冻服役寿命的影响规律。结果表明:水胶比越大,受冻服役寿命越短,且影响明显;参数在合理范围内时,含气量增大,受冻服役寿命提高;粉煤灰掺量的增大使受冻服役寿命有所提高。     

基于蒙特卡洛法的实船功率性能试验不确定度分析

针对实船功率性能测量与分析涉及因素多,难以通过传统GUM法对修正得到的理想状态功率与航速结果进行不确定度评价的问题,提出基于蒙特卡洛法的实船功率性能不确定度分析方法,分析实船功率性能试验中的主要不确定度源,依据ISO15016数据处理方法建立测量模型,以大连海事大学教学实习船“育鲲”轮为对象分析实船功率性能试验与不确定度,获得了功率和航速测量的不确定度水平与主要影响量,验证了不确定度分析方法的适用性。     

Simple Lagrangian formulation of bubbly flow in a turbulent boundary layer (bubbly boundary layer flow)

For the theoretical consideration of a system for reducing skin friction, a mathematical model was derived to represent, in a two-phase field, the effect on skin friction of the injection of micro air bubbles into the turbulent boundary layer of a liquid stream. Based on the Lagrangian method, the equation of motion governing a single bubble was derived. The random motion of bubbles in a field initially devoid of bubbles was then traced in three dimensions to estimate void fraction distributions across sections of the flow channel, and to determine local bubble behavior. The liquid phase was modeled on the principle of mixing length. Assuming that the force exerted on the liquid phase was equal to the fluid drag generated by bubble slip, an equation was derived to express the reduction in turbulent shear stress. Corroborating experimental data were obtained from tests using a cavitation tunnel equipped with a slit in the ceiling from which bubbly water was injected. The measurement data provided qualitative substantiation of the trend shown by the calculated results with regard to the skin friction ratio between cases with and without bubble injection as function of the distance downstream from the point of bubble injection.List of symbols B law of wall constant - C _f local coefficient of skin friction - C _f0 local coefficient of skin friction in the absence of bubbles - d _b bubble diameter [m] - g acceleration of gravity [m/s²] - k ₁ k₄ proportional coefficient - k _L turbulent energy of the liquid phase [m²/s²] - L representative length [m] - l _b mean free path of a bubble [m] - m _A added mass of a single bubble [kg] - m _b mass of a single bubble [kg] - N _x ,N _y ,N _z force perpendicular to the wall or ceiling exerted on a bubble adhering to that wall or ceiling [N] - P absolute pressure [Pa] - Q _G rate of air supply [/min] - q _L ⁽ⁱ⁾ turbulent velocity at the ith time increment [m/s] - R> _ex Reynolds number defined by Eq. 32 - T _*L integral time scale of the liquid phase [s] - U velocity of the main stream [m/s] - ,¯v,¯w time-averaged velocity components [m/s] - u,v,w turbulent velocity components [m/s] - û _L ,v_L root mean square values of liquid phase turbulence components in thex- and y-directions [m/s] - V volume of a single bubble [m³] - X,Y,Z components of bubble displacement [m] - x _s ,y _s ,z _s coordinate of a random point on a sphere of unit diameter centered at the coordinate origin - root mean square of bubble displacement in they-direction in reference to the turbulent liquid phase velocity [m] - local void fraction - _m mean void fraction in a turbulent region - regular random number - R _v increment of the horizontal component of the force acting on a single bubble, defined by Eq. 22 [N] - t time increment [s] - ₁ reduction of turbulent stress [N/m²] - _L rate of liquid energy dissipation [m²/s³] - _m coefficient defined by Eq. 30 - law of wall constant in the turbulent region in absence of bubbles - ₁ law of wall constant in the turbulent region in presence of bubbles     

模拟软件SIMPHONY在科研项目进度计划中的应用

描述了CEM_PERT模板的5个建模要素,即根要素、工作要素、连接要素、开始要素和结束要素,讨论了利用CEM_PERT模板建立不确定环境下科研项目进度计划的步骤,并利用该模板建立了某科研项目的进度计划,得到了该项目500次模拟运行的时间-完成概率曲线;项目中不同工作最早开始时间、最早完成时间、最迟开始时间和最迟完成时间...     

光脉冲信号在海水中传输的多径效应研究

采用修正Henyey-Greenstein函数表示海水的散射相位函数,利用半解析Monte Carlo方法计算了光脉冲信号在海水中传输的多径时间扩展效应.由于采用光学厚度的传统归一化方法不能较好地反映不同海水介质散射函数状况,本文提出了一种新的归一化数据分析方法,利用介质的有效散射厚度代替光学厚度.仿真结果表明在不同海水深度、不同海水条件下的光束多径效应具有同样的形式.海水参数会影响多径时间扩展分布的高度和宽度.多径扩展时间达到数百ns.此外,在不同散射特性海水条件下,如果海水有效散射厚度相同,则多径时间扩展分布基本相同.     

基于安全系数解析式的边坡稳定评价体系研究

以简单土坡的圆弧面滑动为研究对象,将滑动土体分为主动区域和被动区域,视被动土体作用为增加抗滑力矩,采用积分方法推导抗滑力矩及滑动力矩的解析表达式,进而得到安全系数解析式;依托该解析式建立了可靠性分析的功能函数数学模型,并采用Monte Cado法求解失效概率和可靠指标.借助纯黏性土、均质边坡的确定性模型,将黏聚力与重度、坡高的比值作为随机变量,分析了其概率分布类型及变异特征对失效概率的影响规律,以及安全系数和失效概率的相互关系.结果表明:该安全系数解析式是精确的;参数变异性的影响不容忽视,当参数变异性较大时,传统的安全系数法不能给出切合实际的评判,而可靠指标法则更合理;对于不同的参数变异性情况,安全系数与失效概率(或可靠指标)关系曲线中呈现明显的交叉点,且其位置与参数分布类型有关.     

Application of advanced sampling for efficient probabilistic traffic modelling

In probabilistic traffic models, consideration of stochasticity in the dynamics of traffic gives a closer representation of a traffic system in comparison to that of a deterministic approach. Monte Carlo simulation is a broadly accepted method to consider variations in traffic within modelling. In this contribution, the possibility of increasing the efficiency of probabilistic traffic flow models using Monte Carlo simulation is analysed using variance reduction techniques and sequencing, for varied capacity and traffic demand values. The techniques of Importance Sampling, Latin Hypercube Sampling and Quasi-Random Sequencing are compared in a dynamic macroscopic traffic model to demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques for reduction of the computational load when considering multiple input variations. Demonstration of their efficiency in traffic modelling is expected to lead to a wider application of the methods in practice.     

面向高速公路车辆切入场景的自动驾驶测试用例生成方法

为在自动驾驶汽车基于场景的测试中生成涵盖相应场景中复杂多变的真实交通运行过程的测试用例,从highD数据集中提取车辆切入场景的多个实际样本,通过分析运动参数和参与车辆之间的位置关系,建立车辆切入场景的描述模型,根据切入点的碰撞时间评估该方案的风险程度,并结合描述模型中参数的分布,采用蒙特卡罗方法生成测试用例。结果表明,生成的车辆切入测试用例能够覆盖所有风险等级,可较好地支持自动驾驶测试。     

基于Monte Carlo法的深基坑支护结构可靠度研究

对某隧道基坑工程的施工监测数据进行了分析,得出了基坑开挖施工过程中,桩-内撑支护结构中桩体的水平位移随开挖深度的变化规律。提出了该种结构可靠度指标并编制了基于Monte Carlo法的深基坑支护结构桩体水平位移可靠度分析程序。对实例工程的四个施工工况分别进行了计算,结果表明:可靠度分析计算结果与实例监测结果一致,符合性好。