江苏省内河航运的现状及对策研究

江苏发展水运的条件优越,但是江苏省等级航道比例低,长期内河建设的投入不足,法律法规的不完善以及船舶运力结构的不合理,这些都影响着江苏航运事业的发展,为此江苏省在"十一五"期间加大水运建设的投入,积极推广标准船型的应用。     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

浅析中小航运企业发展战略

针对现在存在只要和“物流”沾边的企业就要把自己改名,并建设成为物流公司的现象,提出了“中小航运企业究竟应该向哪里发展”的问题。通过回顾我国航运业发展的历史和了解世界上关于中小企业的存在理论,说明在中国中小航运企业有存在的可能性和必要性。     

中国航运企业发展现状及对策研究

从中国航运企业所面临机遇、存在的问题两方面出发,即从国际航运市场、政府及企业自身因素分析中国航运企业所处的环境,提出如何提高中国航运企业国际竞争力的策略。     

液化天然气(LNG)的海上运输

概括介绍了世界液化天然气(LNG)海上运输的发展,并对液化天然气海上运输链及其组成,以及当前世界液化天然气主要项目情况进行概述。     

加强实践教学,培养具有国际竞争力的航运人才

我国加入WTO和STCW78/95公约实施后,如何拓宽实践教学思路,培养出符合STCW78/95公约、适应国际航运人才市场需求,具有较强实践能力和竞争能力的航运人才,是航海类专业实践教学改革的需要研究的重要课题。     

全球东西干线集装箱往返运量运力预测

利用基础分析法,借助时间序列回归预测等技术手段对太平洋航线东西航线的运量和运力做了合理的预测,可为船公司进行战略调整和决策提供一定的依据。     

国际集装箱运输市场回顾及展望

2005年的国际航运市场总体发展相对良好,就国际集装箱运输市场而言,2005年市场发展的主要特点表现为:世界经济稳步增长,市场供需情况良好,箱货贸易量与运力投放量同步上升,市场运价高位整理,船公司收益普遍增长,租船市场依旧抢手,中国因素成为世界海运的核心动力。展望2006年,虽然存在许多不确定因素,但出现重大突发性事件的可能性较小,预计国际集装箱运输市场有望继续处于强势发展周期。     

FFA在航运市场风险管理中的应用

随着国际干散货贸易的繁荣和运价波动性的加大,在过去几年里FFA市场也得到较大发展。分析国际干散货航运市场的不确定性,介绍远期运费协议(FFA)的含义及其在国际干散货航运市场中的发展情况,探讨FFA风险管理的作用,最后,面对航运市场较大的波动性,提出中国船东和租家必须学会利用FFA这一新的工具进行风险管理的建议。