An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters’ responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers’ behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief–desire–intention agent architecture.     

Exploring spatial variety in patterns of activity-travel behaviour: initial results from the Toronto Travel-Activity Panel Survey (TTAPS)

Studies of urban travel behaviour typically focus on weekday activities and commuting. This is surprising given the rising contribution of discretionary activities to daily travel that has occurred during the last few decades. Moreover, current understanding of the relationship between travel behaviour and land use remains incomplete, with little research carried out to explore spatial properties of activity-travel behaviour during the off-peak and weekend time periods. Weekend behaviours, for example, influenced by the availability of time and the spatiotemporal distribution of “weekend” destinations, likely produce spatially and temporally distinct activity-travel patterns. Using data from the first wave of the Toronto Travel-Activity Panel Survey (TTAPS), this paper examines an area of research that has received little attention; namely, the presence of spatial variety in activity-travel behaviour. The paper begins by looking at the extent to which individuals engage in spatially repetitive location choices during the course of a single week. Area-based measures of geographical extent and activity dispersion are then used to expose differences in weekday-to-weekend and day-to-day activity-travel patterns. Examination of unclassified activities carried out over a 1 week period reveals a level of spatial repetition that does not materialise across activities classified by type, travel mode, and planning strategy. Despite the inherent spatial flexibility offered by the personal automobile, spatial repetition is also found to be surprisingly similar across travel modes. The results also indicate weekday-to-weekend, and day-to-day fluctuations in spatial properties of individual activity-travel behaviour. These findings challenge the utility of the short-run survey as an instrument for capturing archetypal patterns of spatial behaviour. In addition, the presence of a weekday-to-weekend differential in spatial behaviour suggests that policies targeting weekday travel reduction could have little impact on travel associated with weekend activities.

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首先选用较多的交通参数,设计提出了基于聚类方法的细粒度交通模式划分算法,将交通模式划分为较多的类别。结合实际数据,进行了实验,在四个路段参数的基础上,划分得到了十类交通模式。这其中都用到了模糊集合划分和定性推理。使用状态核确定一系列模式,随后系统状态被划分成若干个模式。提出了模式转移方程来描述在定性推理基础之上的状态转移,并从模式转移的角度进一步研究了系统的稳定性。一个城市交通系统的应用实例显示了本文提出方法的有效性,可以看出细粒度交通模式划分要比粗粒度有更多的优势,同时得出了聚类算法在细粒度交通模式划分中的劣势。     

Field measurements of the evolution of wheel wear and vehicle dynamics for high-speed trains

This investigation demonstrates the wheel wear evolution and related vehicle dynamics of high-speed trains with an operating distance (OD) of around two million kilometres. A long-term experimental test lasting two years was conducted to record the wheel profiles and structural vibrations of various trainsets. The wheel wear, namely the profile shape, worn distribution and wheelset conicity, is investigated for several continuous reprofiling cycles. Typical results are illustrated for the stability analysis, and the ride quality is examined with increasing OD. In addition, the vibration transition characteristics between suspensions are investigated in both the time and frequency domains. The experiments show that the dominant wear concentrates on the nominal rolling radius, and the wear rate increases with OD because of the surface softening resulting from the loss of wheel material. The vibration of structural components is aggravated by the increase of the equivalent conicity of the wheelset, which rises approximately linearly with the wheel wear and OD. High-frequency vibrations arise in the bogie and car body related to the track arrangement and wheel out-of-roundness, causing the ride comfort to worsen significantly. Additionally, the system vibration characteristics are strongly dependent on the atmospheric temperature. Summaries and conclusions are obtained regarding the wheel wear and related vehicle dynamics of high-speed trains over long operating times and distances.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

Assessment of the influence of the elastic properties of rail vehicle suspensions on safety,ride quality and track fatigue

A sensitivity analysis has been performed to assess the influence of the elastic properties of railway vehicle suspensions on the vehicle dynamic behaviour. To do this, 144 dynamic simulations were performed modifying, one at a time, the stiffness and damping coefficients, of the primary and secondary suspensions. Three values were assigned to each parameter, corresponding to the percentiles 10, 50 and 90 of a data set stored in a database of railway vehicles. After processing the results of these simulations, the analysed parameters were sorted by increasing influence. It was also found which of these parameters could be estimated with a lesser degree of accuracy in future simulations without appreciably affecting the simulation results. In general terms, it was concluded that the highest influences were found for the longitudinal stiffness and the lateral stiffness of the primary suspension, and the lowest influences for the vertical stiffness and the vertical damping of the primary suspension, with the parameters of the secondary suspension showing intermediate influences between them.     

Cyclic storm loading soil-structure interaction for a three independent leg jack-up

A 2-D analysis of the soil-structure interaction for a jack-up platform is presented. The special features of the analysis are:

• -soil behaviour modelling under cyclic loading uses elasto-plastic equations with a multiple yield surface and kinematical hardening;

• -the study is not executed on a single isolated spud-can, but on a more comprehensive structural model including the soil and a 2-D reduction of a complete jack-up structure;

• -the loading history consists of some one-hundred cycles representing two storm sea states separated by small set-up cycles.

The main result is that the bottom fixity displayed during the first storm is not significantly degraded during the second storm, even though irrecoverable displacements and rotations occur.     

Fe—Mo合金的时效析出行为

用 X 射线、电子衍射及透射电镜观察等方法研究了 Fe-27Mo 及 Fe-16Mo 合金的时效析出行为.结果发现,在873～1453K 时效时.时效初期,两种合金中均有一种新的过渡相——R 相析出.随时效进行,过渡相 R 将向平衡相μ(1213～1453K)或 Laves(873～1213K)转度.过渡相 R 为菱形点阵,点阵常数α=0.8977nm,α=74.4°,其 Mo 含量为48%,呈棒状或块状形态析出.时效初期由于过渡相 R 的析出引起合金硬化.     

混凝土箱梁的非线性分析

本文用一种新的高效壳体单元离散预应力混凝土箱梁，在较稀的网格划分下，考虑与时间无关的非线性因素，分析了预应力混凝土箱梁的结构行为。所涉及的非线性特性有：混凝土材料的正交各向异性本构；由混凝土开裂或压碎及钢筋屈服所引起的非线性。还考虑了混凝土开裂后的软化性质，计算结果与实验梁的量测值吻合较好。     

基于欧氏距离的基本信任函数确立方法

声学故障检测与定位是维护舰船隐身的重要手段.为了实现对声学故障的检测与定位,开发了基于案例推理的专家系统.该系统采用D-S证据理论对案例推理结果进行信息融合.针对基本信任函数很难确定的问题,给出了一种基于样本间欧氏距离的信任分配函数确定方法.实验证明该方法具有较好的可行性.