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Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data
Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks. 相似文献
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《运输规划与技术》2012,35(8):868-880
ABSTRACTAnalysis of elevator traffic in high rise buildings is critical to the performance evaluation of elevator group control systems (EGCS). Elevator dispatching methods or parking algorithms in an EGCS can be designed or modified according to analyses of traffic flow. However, interpretation of traffic flow based solely on numerical data may not be explicit and transparent for EGCS experts as well as for other non-expert building administration. In this study, we present a model for visualization and analysis of elevator traffic. First, we present an alternative approach for traffic analysis which we call route visualization. In the proposed approach, we initially decompose elevator traffic into its component parts and investigate each component independently. Then, using superposition of components we obtain a reconstructed model of overall traffic. This modeling approach provides component-based traffic analysis and representation of routes with intensities through data visualization. In the second part we introduce a multi-dimensional analysis of time parameters in ECGS. This approach provides a comparative analysis of several control algorithms such as dispatch or park algorithms for different combinations of traffic components. 相似文献
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Transport models are used to evaluate new infrastructure and public transport services, varied levels of demand, and new ideas for demand management. Exploring these proposals virtually is easier than implementation and testing in situ. However, existing models are based around traditional forms of transportation. As part of a feature analysis using a case study approach, three different simulation packages (a simple custom-developed package, traffic microsimulation, and agent-based simulation) are used to develop and demonstrate simulations of demand-responsive transportation (DRT) and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each simulation approach for evaluating DRT. While the simulations display some relational replication (meaning they produce similar relational patterns with respect to certain variables), they do not show distributional replication (that is, the value of the results is not statistically similar), meaning that under- or over-estimation of predicted travel could occur. Recommendations for the application of each modeling approach are made. 相似文献
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蒙华铁路坪桥1号隧道进口洞顶基岩外凸、洞顶以下岩面高且直立、洞顶上部地形偏压高陡,地形条件极其复杂。营盘山大桥与坪桥1号隧道进口紧密相连,存在桥台与隧道洞门结构相互干扰以及边坡防护、隧道出洞和洞口场地布置等一系列难题,设计难度极大。为解决这些难题,通过对现场实际地形、地质情况进行研究,对比分析"整体式"与"分离式"桥隧相连结构的优缺点,提出桥台与隧道相结合的"整体式"桥隧相连结构方案;同时,针对地形偏压高陡,提出非对称结构设计方案,实现了隧道"零"仰坡出洞,解决了洞口边坡防护的难题;最后,提出架立临时贝雷梁的方案,解决了隧道出洞及洞口场地布置的难题。 相似文献
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船型几何模型的参数化表达,是船型多学科设计优化的基础。其作用是为各学科分析和优化提供一个统一的几何模型,并根据各学科分析结果自动修改调整船体型线。文中尝试使用Friendship进行船体完全参数化建模,并使用该软件中的feature编程功能编程实现shipflow型值数据的提取;通过改变一系列重要的船型参数实现变换船型几何模型,以获得满足性能需求的船型。最后利用该软件的优化框架,采用切线搜索法 (Tangent Search, TSearch) 完成1300TEU集装箱船的兴波阻力优化,优化球首和前体船体曲面。结果表明,该参数化方法在改进船型水动力性能方面有很好的效果。 相似文献
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动力定位系统舵桨组合推力分配研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对船舶动力定位系统推力分配中舵桨组合的推力建模及优化分配问题,将舵桨组合的非凸推力区域转化成4个凸区域,采用切换控制理论把非线性最优化问题转换为线性最优化问题。将舵、桨组合起来进行推力建模,以最小推力、舵角变化和推力误差为优化目标,对推进器的推力变化率、舵角变化率、推力误差范围和推力大小作了约束,采用多边形的方法把推力范围约束转化为线性不等式约束,基于总功率与总推力误差在不同推力区域设计了切换逻辑,实现了在不同的推力分配器中的切换。实船试验结果表明舵桨组合推力模型及推力分配策略是切实可行的,满足了推力分配的要求,在配备舵的动力定位船上具有良好的应用前景。 相似文献