A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

船坞超高型管柱支撑设计

阐述了船坞超高型管柱支撑的设计。提出了船坞区域搭载时管子支撑与外板3种连接形式下的支撑设计允许承载力的理论计算，并对目前船坞使用的φ426mm×14mm和φ500mm×18mm两种管子进行计算分析。改进了撑管的底部支撑，提高了超高型管子支撑的使用效果和安全性。     

舰船物资转运方案计算机辅助决策算法研究

瞬息万变的现代战场对大中型水面战斗舰船甲板物资转运的效率提出越来越高的要求。引入计算机辅助决策技术,在考虑多种牵制因素的情况下,快速获得最优的物资转运方案。详细分析和阐述舰船物资转运线路规划、时间计算、作业排序以及资源配班等4个主要问题的计算机解决方法,为利用计算机辅助制定最优物资转运方案提供可行途径。     

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: A hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides daily ridership estimates that account for day-to-day demand variations in the near future (e.g., next week, next month). It is one of the most critical tasks in high-speed passenger rail planning, operational decision-making and dynamic operation adjustment. An accurate short-term HSR demand prediction provides a basis for effective rail revenue management. In this paper, a hybrid short-term demand forecasting approach is developed by combining the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey support vector machine (GSVM) models. There are three steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) decompose short-term passenger flow data with noises into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (ii) predict each IMF using GSVM calibrated by the particle swarm optimization (PSO); (iii) reconstruct the refined IMF components to produce the final predicted daily HSR passenger flow, where the PSO is also applied to achieve the optimal refactoring combination. This innovative hybrid approach is demonstrated with three typical origin–destination pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Mean absolute percentage errors of the EEMD-GSVM predictions using testing sets are 6.7%, 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, which are much lower than those of two existing forecasting approaches (support vector machine and autoregressive integrated moving average). Application results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach performs well in terms of prediction accuracy and is especially suitable for short-term HSR passenger flow forecasting.     

渔业船舶评估技术规范研究

着重围绕渔业船舶评估技术规范、评估特点、参数选取、范围界定、不确定影响因素及勘验评估等方面进行规范性的研究,为渔业船舶抵押贷款、海损事故、保险理算等价格评估的公正性和正确性提供科学的依据。     

几种典型的大型集装箱船导轨结构特性对比计算分析

本文以固定装载型式导轨和混合装载型式导轨为研究对象,基于有限元方法分析了不同集装箱装载工况对导轨强度、刚度的影响,同时在相同集装箱装载工况下,对不同导轨的强度、刚度进行了对比分析。结果可为集装箱导轨的设计优化提供了一定的参考。     

液化气船事故频发的根源和对策

近年来，国内液化气船恶性事故接连不断，已严重危害液化气海上运输事业的健康发展。而要遏止这种趋势，必须准确分析事故频发的根源，并采取有力措施。     

一个应用复合箱体结构传动箱的柴油发电机组设计

因运载车辆或其它条件限制,在某些情况下,柴油发电机组设计中需将发电机布置在柴油发动机的侧面,以减小机组在长度方向的尺寸。本文对该种布置方式的力学特性进行了分析,并从传动齿轮箱设计和柴油发电机组结构总成方面提出了合理的设计方案,产品经运行效果良好,证明具有使用价值。     

基于支持向量机的装载机齿轮箱故障智能诊断研究

在分析现有齿轮箱故障诊断方法的基础上,提出了采用多分类器支持向量机齿轮箱故障智能诊断方法,简介了该方法的系统结构、实现原理、特征提取与故障类别,重点讨论了齿轮箱故障多分类器支持向量机智能诊断模型与算法。仿真试验结果说明了采用多分类器支持向量机智能方法进行齿轮箱故障智能诊断的可行性与正确性。     

一种适用于大变形支护的新型可伸长锚杆

支护理论的发展对锚固技术提出了新的要求,即要与围岩变形相协调,允许围岩可控变形,充分发挥围岩的自支撑能力。基于此设计了一种适用于大变形支护的新型可伸长锚杆,该型锚杆在达到初始锚固力后,在保持与围岩协调变形的伸长过程中锚固力可基本保持恒定,达到围岩许用变形形值后,锚固力急速上升。室内与现场试验证实了新型可伸长锚杆协调围岩大变形的优良性能,可在围岩大变形支护中推广应用。可伸长。