Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

船舶操纵仿真中图谱数值化方法的研究

在船舶操纵仿真中涉及大量的图谱转换工作,传统的图谱处理方法在精度和工作量上存在着一对矛盾。本文试图通过应用正弦小波拟合方法来替代传统折线方法,并在某些图谱上得到验证,可望在类似图谱数值化上得到推广和应用,以提高计算精度和减少计算工作量。     

武器装备的可靠性管理和对策

介绍了可靠性工作发展的简史,详细叙述了可靠性管理的内涵及如何实施,提出了舰船武器装备开展人-机-环境系统的研究,提升可靠性管理水平的对策。     

浅埋大跨度隧道的合理施工工法

采用平面弹塑性有限单元法研究浅埋大跨度隧道的合理施工工法。以实际施工中拟定的双侧壁导坑加拱部跳挖法为基础,采用开挖分步相同、开挖顺序不同的三种施工工法。工法一和工法二均先开挖左侧壁导坑,再开挖右侧壁导坑,工法一先开挖两边,再开挖中间,工法二先开挖中间,再开挖两边;工法三的左、右两侧导坑同时开挖,拱部土体先开挖中间、再开挖两边。对三种施工工法产生的地面沉降、洞周塑性区及洞周变形通过有限元数值模拟对比分析,认为工法三最为不利,工法一是最优的。但考虑现有施工条件工法二为实际施工过程中拟采用的工法,该工法引起的地面沉降最大值可控制在30mm以内,满足沉降控制及对周围环境保护的要求。研究认为:若地面有建筑物需要保护,应先开挖邻近建筑物一侧的导坑,拱部也应先开挖邻近建筑物一侧的土体。     

船舶液体舱液位遥测方法及数据分析

采用压力式传感器将其安装在流体舱中尽可能低的位置，对液体舱进行舱容测量，获取舱容与液面之间的关系数据；试验表明，该方法遥测结果是可信的。     

喷水推进泵空化预测原理和方法的研究

文章在介绍喷水推进在国内外的最新应用后,着重分析喷水推进系统在舰船上的应用所带来的新特点,即极易进入空化区。根据舰船动力装置机舱自动化的设计规范中的有关监测报警系统的设计要求,文章提出了喷水推进泵空化预测原理和方法研究的必要性。     

On the fresh balance of the Adriatic Sea

The long-term mean fresh water balance of the Adriatic Sea is studied by ananalysing evaporation, precipitation and river runoff. Evaporation is computed from May latent heat flux and by means of bulk formula. In the latter case two wind speed data sets are used, namely those from the NMC and May. The sea surface temperature is taken from a historical Adriatic data set, and the air temperature and relative humidity come from the NMC data set. Two precipitation data sets are considered, namely the Legates and Willmott climatology and a data set consisting of data measured at 62 rain-gauge stations located on the Adriatic coasts. Runoff contribution to the fresh water balance is estimated from the long-term average flow rates of 39 rivers and the horizontal distribution of salinity in the upper mixed layer.The spatial distribution of the fresh water balance, as well as of its components, is analysed by means of monthly objective maps, from which averages and standard deviations are computed. The results obtained from the different computations are not always univocal, particularly in the evaluation of Summer evaporation, and are affected by relatively large statistical errors. Significant spatial and seasonal variability occurs, with a noticeable fresh water gain along the coastline of the northern and middle basins, while small areas of fresh water loss are found in the middle and southern basins. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, the difference between the fresh water losses by evaporation and the gains by precipitation and runoff is clearly negative, indicating that, unlike the whole Mediterranean, the Adriatic Sea is generally a dilution basin.     

FAO 核心子系统安全完整性等级 评价方法研究

为探究如何更加实际地评价全自动运行(FAO)系统核心子系统功能的安全完整性等级(SIL),通过研究欧 洲电工标准化委员会(CENELEC)标准中风险模型的构造,给出风险降低因素(RRF)的定义;通过定义的风险降低 因素,建立可容忍事故率(TAR)与可容忍危害率(THR)的换算关系,进而评估出 FAO 系统核心子系统功能次级危 害的可容忍危害率;最后通过其与安全完整性等级的对应关系,得到核心子系统功能的安全完整性等级。应用结 果表明：结合实际的 FAO 工程项目应用成果,给出风险降低因素中各要素的具体示例,可供借鉴;与直接采用 可容忍事故率保守估计安全完整性等级的方法相比,在考虑风险降低因素后评估得到的安全完整性等级更接近实 际情况。     

新开通地铁城市乘客安全知识认知度调研

为了解和掌握杭州等新开通地铁城市的乘客乘坐地铁出行所具备的安全知识、安全意识水平,利用调查问卷的方法对乘客基本安全知识的认知程度、安全意识、安全行为和突发事件的反应进行初步调查分析与研究。结果表明:63%的乘客对于安全标识的含义、紧急报警装置等了解程度不高;87.88%的乘客表示没有接受过相关安全知识的宣传教育;68.19%的乘客对于地铁这种特殊的公共交通工具的安全性表现出主动关心;90%以上的乘客未携带危险品进站乘车、未在站内/车厢内吸烟,安全行为较好;同时当地铁站内发生突发事件(如火灾、爆炸、停电、恐怖袭击等)时,57.58%的受访者表示在面临危险的情况下可以保持镇定的态度并能听从指挥。     

铁路大型客站节水评价方法初探

在文献资料和现场调研的基础上,通过分析客站用水量影响因素,建立了单因素评价指标体系和评价方法;分析确定了各因素的权重,进行了无量纲化处理后,建立了多因素综合评价指标体系和评价方法,利用该方法对两个车站的节水效果进行了评价。