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With the availability of large volumes of real-time traffic flow data along with traffic accident information, there is a renewed interest in the development of models for the real-time prediction of traffic accident risk. One challenge, however, is that the available data are usually complex, noisy, and even misleading. This raises the question of how to select the most important explanatory variables to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy for real-time traffic accident risk prediction. To address this, the present paper proposes a novel Frequent Pattern tree (FP tree) based variable selection method. The method works by first identifying all the frequent patterns in the traffic accident dataset. Next, for each frequent pattern, we introduce a new metric, herein referred to as the Relative Object Purity Ratio (ROPR). The ROPR is then used to calculate the importance score of each explanatory variable which in turn can be used for ranking and selecting the variables that contribute most to explaining the accident patterns. To demonstrate the advantages of the proposed variable selection method, the study develops two traffic accident risk prediction models, based on accident data collected on interstate highway I-64 in Virginia, namely a k-nearest neighbor model and a Bayesian network. Prior to model development, two variable selection methods are utilized: (1) the FP tree based method proposed in this paper; and (2) the random forest method, a widely used variable selection method, which is used as the base case for comparison. The results show that the FP tree based accident risk prediction models perform better than the random forest based models, regardless of the type of prediction models (i.e. k-nearest neighbor or Bayesian network), the settings of their parameters, and the types of datasets used for model training and testing. The best model found is a FP tree based Bayesian network model that can predict 61.11% of accidents while having a false alarm rate of 38.16%. These results compare very favorably with other accident prediction models reported in the literature. 相似文献
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阐明了《起重机设计规范》中风载迎风面积计算方法;并在《规范》规定的原则基础上,提出了相对准确的求解结构迎风面积的方法。 相似文献
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水泥混凝土路面嵌缝材料宽深比的设计直接影响到路面力学性能。对宽深比分别为2∶1、1∶1和1∶2的密封橡胶体系建立轴对称有限元模型,采用ANSYS软件对拉伸和压缩两种不同的受力状态进行模拟,确定了2∶1宽深比的密封橡胶材料承受的应力最小,尺寸最优。 相似文献
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文章采用整体模型试验研究方法,测试沙河水库主坝泄洪道在原有设计尺寸和变更一级跌水池长的情况下,水流流态、消能率及跃后长度的不同情形,得出将一级跌水池增加4m、扩散段相应地缩短4m时水流形态及消能效果最佳的结论。 相似文献
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康德发 《筑路机械与施工机械化》1994,11(6):16-17
通过稀浆封层及施工技术的应用,着重介绍乳化沥青稀浆封层施工前的准备,各种原材料的配料计算。施工注意事项及施工质量检验。 相似文献
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