Lifetime Reliability Analysis of Flexural Cracking for Prestressed Concrete Bridge

Time-dependant reliability is analyzed for the flexural cracking of prestressed concrete bridges under service limit state. The limit state function and random variables are derived from Chinese highway bridge design specifications. For deterioration of structural performances, chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is emphasized. Through integrating first order reliability method (FORM) and time discretized approach, the time-variant reliability is evaluated. For illustrative propose, the reliability of a typical simply supported prestressed concrete beam is exemplified.     

破损船体非对称弯曲极限强度分析及可靠性评估

在船体发生破损后,其剩余有效剖面是非对称的,船体还可能倾斜。本文首先对破损船体非对称弯曲进行了弹性和塑性分析,在此基础上假设了破损船体发生整体破坏时的剖面应力分布,给出了破损船体非对称弯曲极限强度分析方法,并采用了比较精细的方法计算加筋板格的屈曲极限强度。以箱型梁模型和超大型油船为例,将本文的计算结果与试验、ＩＳＵＭ法及解析公式的结果进行了比较。基于破损船体极限强度,结合重要性样本法,对６５,００     

随机载荷作用下铁路起重机伸缩臂模糊可靠性分析

箱形伸缩式吊臂的可靠性分析是铁路起重机设计中的重要部分。在载荷随机情况下,利用摄动随机有限元,结合板壳元,推导单元应力的均值和方差的计算公式,计算铁路救援起重机基本臂最大应力单元主应力的均值和方差,并与强度试验结果进行比较;在强度为随机变量的情况下,把结构从安全状态到失效状态的过渡性考虑成一模糊事件,采用线性隶属函数,计算了QTJS160铁路起重机伸缩式吊臂的模糊可靠度。计算结果表明,结构可靠性与载荷离差及相关系数有很大的关系;把载荷处理为随机载荷,把失效事件处理为模糊事件,符合实际情况。     

大型油船和集装箱船静水弯矩的统计特性研究

本文介绍了国内外静水弯矩的研究现状，对Soares和Moan的经验回归公式进行了详细讨论，发现不同的研究人员对静水弯矩统计特征的认识存在相当大的差异。文中对静水弯矩均值和变异系数对船舶总纵强度安全指数的敏感度进行了分析，发现均值比变异系数更加重要。在分析和比较的基础上，根据简单可靠的原则，对集装箱船和油船的静水弯矩统计特征计算提出了如下建议：集装箱船，Cov=0．30；油船，满载（中垂）时，Cov＝0．4，压载（中拱）时，Cov=0．70。     

海洋平台结构系统疲劳可靠性分析方法

本文研究了海洋平台结构系统疲劳可靠性评估方法。文中对平台结构简生管节点疲劳可靠性分析模型进行了简单的评述，在该模型的基础上，建立了用S－N曲线模型与断裂力学模型分别计算平台完好管节点及有初始裂纹管节点疲劳寿命的平告结构系统疲劳可靠性分析模型。作为一个算例，文中运用作者开发的程序系统，对一固定式导管架平台进行了疲劳可靠性计算。     

船用二冲程柴油机活塞可靠性分析

本文以一台研制中的船用二冲程增压柴油机为例，采用模拟和数值计算方法对其活塞进行了可靠性分析。文中提出的方法具有一定的理论指导意义和实用价值。     

航标自动监控系统研讨

本文简述了航标自动监控系统的重要性、框架结构、基本组成和监测内容．对系统的作用距离、可用性、可靠性和我国组建该系统的基本条件等进行了研讨。作者认为,我国组建航标自动监控系统不但必需,而且可行     

Crowding in public transport systems: Effects on users,operation and implications for the estimation of demand

The effects of high passenger density at bus stops, at rail stations, inside buses and trains are diverse. This paper examines the multiple dimensions of passenger crowding related to public transport demand, supply and operations, including effects on operating speed, waiting time, travel time reliability, passengers’ wellbeing, valuation of waiting and in-vehicle time savings, route and bus choice, and optimal levels of frequency, vehicle size and fare. Secondly, crowding externalities are estimated for rail and bus services in Sydney, in order to show the impact of crowding on the estimated value of in-vehicle time savings and demand prediction. Using Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Error Components (EC) models, we show that alternative assumptions concerning the threshold load factor that triggers a crowding externality effect do have an influence on the value of travel time (VTTS) for low occupancy levels (all passengers sitting); however, for high occupancy levels, alternative crowding models estimate similar VTTS. Importantly, if demand for a public transport service is estimated without explicit consideration of crowding as a source of disutility for passengers, demand will be overestimated if the service is designed to have a number of standees beyond a threshold, as analytically shown using a MNL choice model. More research is needed to explore if these findings hold with more complex choice models and in other contexts.     

动车组产品可靠性评估与验证

针对动车组整车和零部件等产品的不同特点,按照不同车型、不同产品、不同运用条件、不同故障后果和不同置信度要求等分类评估的原则,研究动车组产品的可靠度评估方法,包括可靠度置信下限评估方法和故障率置信上限评估方法;以提高验证效率、效益为目标,从最少验证样本、最短验证时间、最低验证成本的原则出发,研究无故障状况下动车组可靠度和故障率的验证方法;示例进行动车组整车故障率和轴箱轴承可靠度评估与验证。结果表明:采用评估与验证方法,可得到动车组产品置信度分别为50%,90%,95%,99%,产品可靠度下限分别为0.9~0.99,0.991~0.999时所需试验验证样本数量,以及百万km故障率上限分别为0.1~1.0时所需累计试验验证里程,实现基于可靠性目标要求的定量评估和验证考核。