偏好泊位约束下的集装箱港口离散泊位分配问题*

在集装箱码头中,泊位调度系统是影响码头作业调度的重要环节,而泊位分配问题又是其首要问题。为了揭示 泊位偏好对泊位分配问题的影响,重点从集装箱码头泊位分配问题和基于船舶泊位偏好问题两方面展开研究,为对泊位分 配和泊位偏好进行协同优化配置,建立泊位偏好约束下的多目标混合整数数学模型。并且采用CPLEX进行求解。通过算例 说明模型的有效性,并通过实验分析船舶对泊位的偏好的影响。结果对港口具有的实际应用价值,拓展了对离散型靠泊计 划的研究。     

Policy Simulation for New BRT and Area Pricing Alternatives Using an Opinion Survey in Jakarta

Abstract

An area pricing scheme for Jakarta, Indonesia, is currently under review as a transportation control measure along with the operation of new bus rapid transit (BRT) system. While this scheme may be effective for congestion reduction in the central business district (CBD), provision of alternative means of transportation for auto users that are ‘pushed-out’ is of great importance to obtain public acceptance. Hence, it is necessary to simulate simultaneously the area pricing scheme and the BRT development which may serve as an alternative for assumed ‘pushed-out’ auto users. Utilizing data from an opinion survey, this paper studies how BRT and auto ridership are likely to vary as a function of traveler and system attributes. Additionally, the study attempts to evaluate the way this new travel mode is distinguished from other existing conventional transportation alternatives in Jakarta. The survey data contains socioeconomic information of over 1000 respondents as well as details of to-work/school trips to the CBD including mode, travel cost, time, etc. Respondents were asked about their willingness to shift from their current mode to BRT to make the same travel for different BRT fare levels. Modeling efforts suggest that a mixed logit model performs better in explaining choice behavior. Therefore, this model was used for policy simulation. The simulation results brought about many implications as to the tested policies. While the developed models may be applied only to future BRT corridors in which the survey was conducted, they capture the key variables that are significant in explaining mode choice behavior and present great potential for practical use in policy simulation and analysis in a large metropolitan area of the developing world.     

A Stated Preference Experiment for Measuring Service Quality in Public Transport

Abstract

This paper develops a Stated Preference (SP) experiment that provides a way to measure service quality in public transport. The paper introduces an empirical procedure for optimising the SP experiment. This procedure permits the identification of the choice alternatives defining the experiment by simulating the choices of a user sample. By using the data collected from an experimental survey, a Multinomial Logit model was calibrated. This model is a way of identifying the importance of service quality attributes on global customer satisfaction and calculating a Service Quality Index, which provides an operationally appealing measure of current or potential service effectiveness.     

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高速铁路投入运营以后,航空运输市场份额明显下降,两种高速客运方式产生了激烈的竞争.本文以武广沿线高铁与航空的实地调查数据为基础,根据非集计模型的相关原理,建立了描述武广沿线高铁与航空运输竞争的Binary Logit模型,并将调查获得的SP数据进行RP数据修正,对模型求解得出不同机票折扣下的高速铁路与航空运输的竞争程度.通过对模型结果的分析,我们发现当武广航空运输票价低于7折时,高铁与航空运输将产生激烈竞争,且票价折扣越低,竞争越激烈.研究成果对高铁与航空运输的协调发展及避免二者的恶性竞争具有重要意义.     

有偏好的交通网络路径选择模型

在城市交通网络中,已知路径的时间属性与费用属性,分析了出行者对路径有、无主观偏好时的路径选择问题。当无偏好时,利用信息熵理论和多属性综合决策方法给出了获得路径综合属性值的计算模型;当有偏好时,对不同的路径通过互反判断矩阵给出主观偏好,然后利用互反判断矩阵之间的偏差建立关于属性权重向量的优化模型,并采用解析的方法对模型进行求解,得到每个属性的权重,从而进一步计算出每条路径的综合属性值,属性值最大的路径为最优路径。分析结果表明:在无偏好时最佳选择路径2的综合属性值为0.918;在有偏好时最佳选择路径4的综合属性值为0.965,与无偏好的相差较大,且6条路径的选择次序不同。可见,出行者的主观偏好对路径选择结果有较大的影响。     

基于灰色模糊综合评判的最优路径选择

驾驶员在车辆的行驶过程中起主导作用,不同的驾驶员有不同的偏好,同时,对道路也有不同的要求。根据驾驶员的偏好和路径选择要求,从6个方面进行考虑,运用灰色模糊综合评判方法为驾驶员进行最优路径选择。并通过实例证明该方法的有效性和适用性。     

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现实生活中,驾驶员往往依据自身偏好来选择路径,对不同的路径属性有不同的要求,且对其属性值存在一个可接受范围,而不是一个精确值. 本文对存在驾驶员偏好的最优路径选择问题进行了研究,提出了一种能够综合反映驾驶员偏好的最优路径选择方法. 首先基于可能度和区间数相离度的多属性决策方法,建立驾驶员偏好与路径属性总偏差最小的优化模型,并解出路径属性权重;其次算出各路径的综合属性值,建立路径间的可能度矩阵及其排序向量,据此选出最优路径;最后以算例进行验证,结果表明本文给出的路径选择方法具有很好的可行性和适用性.     

昆明市小汽车出行特性调查分析

“小汽车家庭化”给人们的生活带来极大的便利,家庭对小汽车的需求也极大地推动汽车工业及其它产业链的发展,但也带来一系列问题。依托昆明市小汽车出行特性的调查分析,旨在探索有效的小汽车出行行为分析方法,挖掘私人小汽车出行属性规律,为制定有效的私人小汽车管理措施,缓解昆明市城市交通拥挤提供重要参考依据。     

齐当别视觉下的出行方式偏好反转研究

在西南交大两校区校园交通车和119路公交的出行调查中发现,出行者对交通方式偏好和评价存在不一致的现象,并通过谨慎控制调查对偏好反转现象的存在进行了实证.在齐当别的视角下建立起选择支属性的维度判断体系进行匹配心理实验,检验结果发现匹配任务与偏好显著相关,齐当别理论能够对偏好反转现象进行解释.第2次实验通过改变任务顺序和选择支整体期望,验证了齐当别理论可对偏好进行预测,偏好选择是齐当别过程,而不是多维度整合过程.第3次实验通过2组风险场景下的对照,发现概率的引入并不必然提高决策度量水平,偏好反转现象也并非由于个体偏好真实发生了变化,而是由于偏好和评价是不同的策略过程,属性维度差的不同判断结果导致了偏好与评价的不一致.     

Factors influencing the choice of shared bicycles and shared electric bikes in Beijing

China leads the world in both public bikeshare and private electric bike (e-bike) growth. Current trajectories indicate the viability of deploying large-scale shared e-bike (e-bikeshare) systems in China. We employ a stated preference survey and multinomial logit to model the factors influencing the choice to switch from an existing transportation mode to bikeshare or e-bikeshare in Beijing. Demand is influenced by distinct sets of factors: the bikeshare choice is most sensitive to measures of effort and comfort while the e-bikeshare choice is more sensitive to user heterogeneities. Bikeshare demand is strongly negatively impacted by trip distance, temperature, precipitation, and poor air quality. User demographics however do not factor strongly on the bikeshare choice, indicating the mode will draw users from across the social spectrum. The e-bikeshare choice is much more tolerant of trip distance, high temperatures and poor air quality, though precipitation is also a highly negative factor. User demographics do play a significant role in e-bikeshare demand. Analysis of impact to the existing transportation system finds that both bikeshare and e-bikeshare will tend to draw users away from the “unsheltered modes”, walk, bike, and e-bike. Although it is unclear if shared bikes are an attractive “first-and-last-mile solution”, it is clear that e-bikeshare is attractive as a bus replacement.