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采用基于时间序列的乘积季节ARIMA(求和自回归移动平均)模型以及无人艇模型规则波试验数据,研究了水面无人艇运动极短期预报技术。采用经趋势差分和季节差分后的ARMA(自回归移动平均)模型,运用最小信息准则和白噪声检验方法,验证所选择的最佳模型,并对无人艇进行了20步极短期运动预报。计算结果表明:无人艇船模加速度、升沉、纵摇的前10步短期预报最大误差均不超过6%,随着预测步数的增加,误差有扩大的趋势,加速度的后10步短期预报最大误差达到16.68%。可见,极短期预报技术有效。 相似文献
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In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM(1,N) model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGM(1,N) model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM(1,N) model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends. 相似文献
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基于流体计算软件STAR-CCM+,使用VOF法模拟自由液面,联立求解N-S方程及运动方程,并结合湍流模型RNGk-ε及DFBI六自由度模型,对局部气垫双体船型阻力性能进行数值模拟计算,计算结果与船模水池试验结果吻合,精度可信,验证了此该数值方案的可行性.在此基础上,针对局部气垫双体船的片体间距对阻力性能的影响进行数值仿真计算,并对结果进行对比分析,得到了不同片体间距下的阻力变化趋势.针对该局部气垫双体船,综合考虑越峰性能及高速段、低速段阻力性能对片体间距进行选取,认为0.34m的片体间距较为合理.文中使用的CFD方法能够有效模拟局部气垫双体船的阻力性能,可用于船型优化设计. 相似文献
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