电动自行车与机动车事故严重性影响因素分析

为减少电动自行车与机动车事故造成的损失，定量剖析不同因素对事故严重程度的差异性影响至关重要。基于上虞区2018年10304起电动自行车与机动车事故，分析该类事故的严重性分布情况和时间与空间分布特性。以事故严重性为因变量，将其有序分为未受伤、轻伤及重伤事故3类，从时间、空间、道路、环境、骑行者及车型6个方面，选取17个事故严重性潜在影响因素， 采用多项Logit模型、有序Logit模型、广义有序Logit模型及偏比例优势模型进行拟合度对比分析，并以最佳模型(偏比例优势模型)和边际效应，量化分析各因素对事故严重性影响的显著性与差异性。结果表明，除节日类型、车道限速、车流相交角及温度对事故严重性影响不显著外，其余 13个因素都有显著影响，事故时间、光线亮度、骑者性别、骑者年龄、车辆类型及电动自行车类型违反平行线假设；对该类事故严重性影响最大的前4个因素为电动自行车类型、机动车类型、骑行者年龄与性别，其边际效应绝对值的最大值均超过61%，事故区位、道路类型及光线亮度的影响较大(20%~30%)，事故时间和风力等级影响较小(10%~20%)，而季节、事故位置、慢行干扰度和天 气状况的影响最小(≤8%)。基于各因素的差异性影响，为交通管理部门提出了有效改善建议。     

驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型

为准确模拟驾驶人跟车行为，提出基于隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model，HMM)的驾驶人“感知-决策-操控”行为模型。建立描述驾驶意愿的HMM模型，模拟驾驶人感知过程，获得期望的车间距；预测模块模拟驾驶人根据交通环境和自身生理、心理状态预测车辆未来轨迹，即决策过程；优化模块描述驾驶人为使预测的车辆轨迹跟踪上期望的车辆间距而采取的操控汽车的执行动作，即操控过程。上述3个模块的滚动过程实现了对驾驶人跟车行为的模拟。利用自然驾驶数据进行算例分析，结果表明，本文模型预测车间距平均误差仅为1.47%，证明了所建模型的有效性及准确性。本文为驾驶行为建模方法的理论研究和应用拓宽了思路。     

平台运动下悬链线立管涡激振动响应特性分析

悬链线立管会在半潜平台运动带动下出现涡激振动现象,对立管疲劳寿命造成影响.借助海工结构物动力分析软件Orcaflex建立立管模型,使用Iwan-Blevins尾流振子模型进行数值模拟.通过与试验结果对比验证了该方法的可行性.同时建立实尺度悬链线立管模型,并考虑背景海流的影响,分析平台垂荡、纵荡运动下的立管涡激振动响应和疲劳损伤.研究表明,平台运动产生的非定常流场将引起悬链线立管发生涡激振动现象,并在背景洋流激励的基础上增大疲劳损伤,在立管结构实际工程设计时应予以关注.     

Optimal development of alternative fuel station networks considering node capacity restrictions

A potential solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is the use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV). As global GHG emission standards have been in place for passenger cars for several years, infrastructure modelling for new AFV is an established topic. However, as the regulatory focus shifts towards heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), the market diffusion of AFV-HDV will increase as will planning the relevant AFV infrastructure for HDV. Existing modelling approaches need to be adapted, because the energy demand per individual refill increases significantly for HDV and there are regulatory as well as technical limitations for alternative fuel station (AFS) capacities at the same time. While the current research takes capacity restrictions for single stations into account, capacity limits for locations (i.e. nodes) – the places where refuelling stations are built such as highway entries, exits or intersections – are not yet considered. We extend existing models in this respect and introduce an optimal development for AFS considering (station) location capacity restrictions. The proposed method is applied to a case study of a potential fuel cell heavy-duty vehicle AFS network. We find that the location capacity limit has a major impact on the number of stations required, station utilization and station portfolio variety.     

Numerical modelling of hydrodynamic responses of Ocean Farm 1 in waves and current and validation against model test measurements

With the continuous growing of the aquaculture industry and increasingly limited fish farming sites at close to shore areas both in Norway and worldwide, there is a need to develop fish farms suitable for aquaculture production in typical offshore environments. For this purpose, SALMAR has developed and deployed the Ocean Farm 1 facility for offshore fish farming.The main purpose of this paper is to develop a reliable numerical model and investigate the motion responses of the Ocean Farm 1 structure in waves and current. The established numerical model consists of the Ocean Farm 1's frame structure (with rigidly-connected circular column components), the net and the mooring system. The hydrodynamic external loads and coefficients of the frame structure are obtained by using potential flow theory. The quadratic drag load on the individual circular columns of the frame structure is formulated by a given drag coefficient. The loads on the net are formulated by using the screen model, where the Reynold number dependent lift and drag forces are formulated as a function of the solidity ratio Sn of the net, relative inflow angle and velocity. The hydrodynamic loads on the mooring lines are formulated using the Morison's equation and the structural responses of the mooring lines are obtained using a nonlinear FE model.With the developed numerical model, time domain simulations are performed. The simulation results are firstly validated against measured data from the decay tests, current tests, and regular wave tests. After the validation, numerical simulations are performed in different irregular wave and current combined weather conditions and the obtained motion response of Ocean Farm 1 are discussed and compared with available measurement data.     

基于前轮转角约束自适应模型预测控制的路径跟踪研究

针对在车辆行驶中较小的前轮转角无法充分利用路面附着能力,较大的前轮转角使得车辆的行驶稳定性差的问题,文章提出了一种前轮转角约束自适应模型预测方法。首先建立车辆的动力学模型,然后通过计算得到轮胎纵向力,最终得到车辆的前轮转角。将车辆的状态量与前轮转角自适应约束条件输入给模型预测控制器,输出车辆的前轮转角,实现对参考路径的跟踪。在Carsim和MATLAB平台上联合仿真,仿真结果表明前轮转角约束自适应模型预测控制的车辆相比固定转角约束的车辆具有较好的跟踪能力和稳定性。     

高速路节日免费通行对小汽车出行者选择行为影响研究

出行成本是出行者在选择出行方式时的重要考虑因素。随着我国高速公路网和收费政策的逐步完善,自驾已成为出行者考虑选择的主要出行方式。为研究节日里选择小汽车出行的用户特征及影响因素,通过意向调查的方式对小汽车出行者的偏好进行调查。应用二项Logit模型建模分析,结果显示个人属性、出行属性以及出行环境等都在不同程度上影响出行者的节日出行选择行为,其中小汽车拥有状况、驾龄、旅行时间、出行者在以往节日里选择的出行方式、通行费、线路熟悉程度等对节日出行行为影响较为显著,该研究成果在交通预测、交通管控等方面具有指导性作用。     

深海工程船锚泊仿真系统研究

为了实现工程船定位和控位快速模拟仿真,本文以45000DWT海洋工程船为例,采用均匀设计试验方法,确定深海船舶工作不同的工况组合,基于Ansys-Aqwa软件对工程船深海锚泊动态响应进行仿真分析,对仿真结果进行回归处理,得到船舶位移和锚索张力与锚索长度、风浪流环境载荷变化的数学响应模型,再对位移数学响应模型进行求反函数处理,获取船舶控位调整锚索长度的方法,为深海锚泊软件仿真系统提供模型支撑。     

基于Prover的联锁软件形式化验证过程研究

计算机联锁系统是铁路信号控制系统的核心设备,是有着苛刻安全要求的复杂控制系统。本文采用Prover形式化开发工具对联锁软件安全需求进行形式化验证。通过模型检验的形式化验证方法,遍历系统输入变量的所有状态空间.验证联锁特定应用满足系统安全需求,确保系统的安全性得以正确实现。在保证系统安全性的基础上,以全状态空间查找反例的检验方法进一步提升产品的质量。     

共享单车现金奖励调度策略的用户接受意愿研究

为探讨共享单车用户在不同影响因素下对现金奖励调度策略的接受程度，设定了针对共享单车用户的调查问卷，并在济南市进行了调查，得到519份有效问卷。基于扩展的计划行为理论（Extended Theory of Planned Behavior, ETPB）模型和相关结构方程模型（Structural Equation Model, SEM），设定了社会规范、支付能力、体力、感知服务、感知绿色价值5个构念以及5个相关假定，以测度不同奖励调度情境下共享单车用户对奖励策略的接受程度。结果显示，支付能力和体力对用户接受调度的影响程度最大，其次是社会规范和感知服务，感知绿色价值的影响程度最小。在此基础之上，提出了增大站点密度、实行现金奖励及提高车辆质量等建议，以降低运营成本、提升用户满意度与车辆使用率。