基于脉冲响应的公路运输需求与产业结构优化的协整分析

基于时间序列数据,利用ADF检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型及脉冲响应、协整理论和Granger因果检验对“新丝绸之路”经济带沿线13个节点城市的公路运输需求与三大产业的关系进行实证研究,结果表明:经济带沿线公路运输需求与三大产业之间表现出一种长期均衡的关系,公路运输能够促进沿线产业结构的优化;公路客运量与第一、二产业无直接的因果关系,与第三产业存在双向因果关系;公路货运量与第一、二产业存在单向因果关系,与第三产业存在双向因果关系。     

Analysis on intensity zonation in thick loess region

The earthquakes, which occurred in Haiyuan, Tangshan and Wenchuan, have caused serious damages in the loess area and the abnormal intensity sites are commonly found during the earthquakes. The investigation of the actual earthquake damages and character analysis on sites shows that the topography, loess overburden and underground water level and many other factors affect the intensity. In this paper, the thickness of loess overburden of Tianshui City is achieved by inversion algorithm based on site exploration and microtremor test; the amplification effect of peak ground motion acceleration is calculated using numerical method; a complete formula is obtained through summarizing previous achievements and is used to calculate the abnormal intensity under the multifactorial influence. Finally, a seismic intensity anomaly distribution map is plotted applying the graphic information system （GIS） software in Maiji District, Tianshui City. Through the practical investigation of earthquake disaster, it is found that the figure fits the distribution of actual intensity anomaly very well.     

湿陷性黄土隧道动态设计

动态设计可弥补由于隧道地质条件的隐蔽性和复杂性等致使初始设计方案不能很好地切合实际的缺陷。应用系统论的思想,采用动态控制系统反馈机制的方法,提出了动态设计方法及隧道动态设计的具体流程,并以大酉山隧道为例,针对重湿陷性黄土隧道的特殊地质状况,分析了隧道施工中根据实测信息、支护状况及时调整设计方案的过程,为其他类似工程提供借鉴和参考。