Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Initial results from long-term measurements of atmospheric humidity and related parameters in the marine boundary layer at two locations in the Gulf of Mexico

Measurements of boundary layer moisture have been acquired from Rotronic MP-100 sensors deployed on two NDBC buoys in the northern Gulf of Mexico from June through November 1993. For one sensor, which was retrieved approximately 8 months after deployment, the post- and precalibrations agreed closely and fell well within WMO specifications for accuracy. The second sensor operated continuously from June 1993 to February 1997 (3.5 years). Buoy observations of relative humidity and supporting data were used to calculate specific humidity and the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat. Specific humidities from the buoys were compared with observations of moisture obtained from nearby ship reports, and the correlations were generally high (0.7–0.9). Surface gravity wave spectra were also acquired. The time series of specific humidity and the other buoy parameters revealed three primary scales of variability, small (h), synoptic (days), and seasonal (months). The synoptic variability was clearly dominant and occurred primarily during September, October, and November. Most of the synoptic variability was due to frontal systems that dropped down into the Gulf of Mexico from the continental US followed by air masses which were cold and dry. Cross-correlation analyses of the buoy data indicated that: (1) the moisture field was highly coherent over distances of 800 km or more in the northern Gulf of Mexico; and (2) both specific humidity and air temperature served as tracers of the motion associated with propagating atmospheric disturbances. These correlation analyses also revealed that the prevailing weather systems generally entered the buoy domain from the South prior to September, but primarily from the North thereafter. Spectra of the various buoy parameters indicated strong diurnal and semidiurnal variability for barometric pressure and sea surface temperature (SST) and lesser variability for air temperature, wind speed and significant wave height. The surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat were dominated by the synoptic events which took place from September through November with the transfer of latent heat being primarily from the ocean to the atmosphere. Finally, an analysis of the surface wave observations from each buoy, which included calculations of wave age and estimates of surface roughness, indicate that major heat and moisture flux events coincide with periods of active wave growth, although the data were insufficient to identify any causal relationships.     

Inter-comparing five forecast operational systems in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins: The MERSEA-strand1 methodology

The methodology to achieve a real time inter-comparison of five state-of-the-art operational forecast systems for the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins is presented. All systems provide analysis and near real-time prediction of the three-dimensional ocean through Opendap servers. A standard set of diagnostics called metrics, is described. Definition and examples of metrics are given. An inter-comparison of the five systems is conducted over a 1 year period using those metrics. It is shown that the methodology developed allows a successful inter-comparison. It has been adopted by the GODAE community. It is also shown that the systems are consistent with the current knowledge of the ocean circulation and climatologies. Systems are deficient in the representation of specific water masses characteristics as Mode waters. Data assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity solve such deficiencies. Metrics also allow a monitoring of the system's North Atlantic overturning stream function and will allow detecting any changes in the coming year system's thermohaline circulation.     

Forecasting peak passenger flows at airports

This article reviews concepts and issues relating to the definition, measurement and forecasting of peak passenger flows at airports, and outlines some recent work carried out by BAA plc, the owner and operator of several major airports in the UK.Abbreviations BHR Busy Hour Rate - SBR Standard Busy Rate - DFR Design Flow Rate     

Lateral Vehicle Behaviour: Comparison of Subjective/Objective Assessment Using the Choquet Integral

This paper presents an original method for the aggregation of transverse behaviour indicators obtained first from a subjective assessment then from an objective one of different vehicles tested under normal working conditions. The Choquet integral is used with respect to fuzzy measures. The main advantage of this method is to take account of the existing interactions between the indicators: redundancy, complementarity, inde-pendence. When this tool is used for subjective and objective evaluations, the computation methods of the objective indicators can be validated. Moreover, the influence of the human factor in the judgment of vehicle behaviour is easier to understand.     

Do frequent satisfying trips by public transport impact its intended use in later life?

Transportation - Previous studies have indicated that factors such as the built environment, attitudes and past behaviour can influence travel behaviour. However, the possible effect of travel...     

Characterization and comparison of traffic flow on reversible roadways

Reversible traffic operations have become an increasingly popular strategy for mitigating traffic congestion associated with the directionally unbalanced traffic flows that are a routine part of peak commute periods, planned special events, and emergency evacuations. It is interesting that despite its widespread and long‐term use, relatively little is known about the operational characteristics of this form of operation. For example, the capacity of a reversed lane has been estimated by some to be equal to that of a normal lane while others have theorized it to be half of this value. Without accurate estimates of reversible lane performance it is not possible to confidently gauge the benefits of reversible roadways or model them using traffic simulation. This paper presents the results of a study to measure and evaluate the speed and flow characteristics of reverse‐flow traffic streams by comparing them under various operating conditions and locations. It was found that, contrary to some opinions, the flow characteristics of reverse‐flowing lanes were generally similar to normally flowing lanes under a variety of traffic volume, time‐of‐day, location, and type‐of‐use conditions. The study also revealed that drivers will readily use reversible lanes without diminished operating speeds, particularly as volumes increase. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pedestrian crossing detection based on evidential fusion of video-sensors

This paper introduces an online pedestrian crossing detection system that uses pre-existing traffic-oriented video-sensors which, at regular intervals, provide coarse spatial measurements on areas along a crosswalk. Pedestrian crossing detection is based on the recognition of occupancy patterns induced by pedestrians when they move on the crosswalk. In order to improve the ability of non-dedicated sensors to detect pedestrians, we introduce an evidential-based data fusion process that exploits redundant information coming from one or two sensors: intra-sensor fusion uses spatiotemporal characteristics of the measurements and inter-sensor fusion uses redundancy between the two sensors. As part of the EU funded TRACKSS project on cooperative advanced sensors for road traffic applications, real data have been collected on an urban intersection equipped with two cameras. The results obtained show that the data fusion process enhances the quality of occupancy patterns obtained and leads to high detection rates of pedestrian crossings with multi-purpose sensors in operational conditions, especially when a secondary sensor is available.