Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

运用车辆动态模拟装置提高东海道新干线列车的乘坐舒适性

介绍了车辆动态模拟装置在评价车辆乘坐舒适性方面的应用情况,并阐述了车辆动态模拟装置在车辆部件研发过程中的重要作用.     

Thermal deformations in typical maglev guideway structures

Thermal gradients and related deformations induced in elevated Maglev guideways by temperature variations in their environment have been predicted by a mathematical model. The deflections induced by thermal gradients in typical guideways are found to exceed specified limits for acceptable operation of an electromagnetic suspension system vehicle unless measures are taken to reduce the thermal gradients and related deflections by suitable treatment of the guideway surfaces.     

Daily Maersk’s impacts on shipper’s supply chain inventories and implications for the liner shipping industry

The liner shipping industry has long been characterized by a weekly sailing frequency and schedule unreliability. This research is motivated by the launch of the revolutionary “Daily Maersk” service in late 2011, which introduced daily departures and “absolute reliability” in the Asia–North Europe trade lane. This article analyzes Daily Maersk’s impacts on a shipper’s supply chain inventories and profound implications for the liner shipping industry as a game changer. The quantitative analyses show that the impact of more frequent sailings is most significant on a shipper’s cycle stock, while improving schedule reliability substantially reduces safety stock and pipeline stock. Daily Maersk is most valuable for products that have high value density, high inventory holding cost ratio, low demand variability, and high service level (SL) requirement. These findings imply that the trend of liner alliance/merger/acquisition is likely to continue or even accelerate as shipping lines consolidate fleet capacity to offer more frequent sailings. Rival carriers may step up their involvement in terminal operations to improve schedule reliability. They also need to rethink about their SL targets and clearly define their preferred customer segments.     

Scenario analysis for supply chain integration in container shipping

Competition in the business world nowadays is largely between supply chains, rather than individual players only. The same situation exists in container shipping. The study looks into container shipping from an integrated perspective and investigates the nature and level of supply chain integration in container shipping. Based on empirical examinations of the world's top 30 container shipping lines, a scenario analysis is conducted. The paper aims to present the scenario analysis for examining supply chain integration in container shipping. It also aims to formulate strategic recommendations for liners to create and sustain competitive advantage. The scenario analysis is designed to allow more complete consideration of alternative possible outcomes and their implications on the research topic. It involves an evaluation of past and present events and provides a plausible discussion of what might occur in the future. It depicts four scenarios of supply chain integration in container shipping, namely, low integration, partner-focused integration, activity-focused integration and high integration. On the whole, research findings suggest that market situations favour those scenarios representing higher level of supply chain integration. Importantly, with reference to the scenario analysis, shipping lines should position themselves in an appropriate scenario and formulate strategic plans accordingly.     

Merging bus routes in Hong Kong’s central business district: Analysis and models

A significant portion of the 200,000 people working in Hong Kong’s central business district (CBD) relies on buses as their primary means of transport. During peak hours, nearly a thousand double-decker buses pour into a tiny area of 150 ha. This causes traffic congestion and air pollution. Moreover, given that the flow is uni-directional (into the CBD in the morning and out of the CBD in the afternoon), the occupancy of buses in the CBD is actually low.In this paper, we propose to reduce traffic congestion and to increase bus occupancy by merging bus routes. We describe the peculiar situation of the CBD in Hong Kong and explain the necessary conditions for the possible success of merging routes. Our analysis shows that merging will lead to an overall benefit for all parties, including government, bus operators, and passengers. The actual merging decisions, which routes to merge and at what frequencies buses should run, are determined by a mathematical model. The model also shows quantitatively the benefits of merging routes and the impacts of other factors. The procedure that we follow and the model that we adopt can be applied to other CBD.     

Disruption risks and mitigation strategies: an analysis of Asian ports

The critical nature of a seaport is a connection point. In addition to the effect on port operations, a port disruption will be a strain on trade flows and the various parties concerned. Climate change, oil spill, security, social and political instability are increasing concerns over the years which would lead to higher risks. With significant growing trade volume in Asia, there is a pressing need for comprehensive studies to prepare ports for disruptions. This paper aims to analyse and categorise the disruptions that have occurred in Asian ports and estimate the likelihood of recurrence based on the data since the year 1900. Results reveal a rising trend of disruptive events. Natural disasters and labour strikes are the two main causes of port disruptions, while natural disasters lead to the highest severity in terms of cargo tons affected. Mitigation strategies proposed in terms of both preventive and reactive measures are specifically designed to reduce the likelihood and severity of the various types of port disruptions. The paper provides recommendations on risk mitigation for relevant parties.     

复杂山区地形桥址区风特性的数值模拟

为了研究复杂山区地形桥址区风场空间特性变化规律,以位于我国西南山区的绿汁江大桥为工程背景,利用FLUENT对山区地形风场特性进行数值模拟,通过36个风向工况的计算分析,得到复杂山区地形桥址区风场的空间分布特性. 结果表明:受复杂地形影响,各桥位平均风速风剖面曲线和沿主梁横桥向风速曲线差异较大,桥址区附近地形最高点以上400 m风场仍明显受地形影响;受河道大角度弯曲影响,桥址区形成类似“单向开口槽”的地形,顺河流风向的来流风受山体阻挡,各桥位处的风速低于逆河流风向,两个风向的风速差值的平均值达13.6 m/s,且各桥位风攻角以负攻角为主;峡谷突宽使谷内风场出现一定的分流,突宽区风速稍有减弱,风场的分流量有限,使得在渡过突宽段后的峡谷缩窄区,风速依旧较大.