Air itinerary shares estimation using multinomial logit models

ABSTRACT

The main goal of this study is the development of an aggregate air itinerary market share model. In order to achieve this, multinomial logit models are applied to distribute the city-pair passenger demand across the available itineraries. The models are developed at an aggregate level using open-source booking data for a large group of city-pairs within the US air transport system. Although there is a growing trend in the use of discrete choice models in the aviation industry, existing air itinerary share models are mostly focused on supporting carrier decision-making. Consequently, those studies define itineraries at a more disaggregate level using variables describing airlines and time preferences. In this study, we define itineraries at a more aggregate level, i.e. as a combination of flight segments between an origin and destination, without further insight into service preferences. Although results show some potential for this approach, there are challenges associated with prediction performance and computational intensity.     

A summary of the formation and seasonal progression of the Northeast Water Polynya

A summary of the seasonal development of the Northeast Water Polynya ice cover characteristics is presented. This is based primarily on satellite remote sensing observations, with some in situ measurements, including both new and published data.     

Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea ice (southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada). III. Feeding success of marine fish larvae

We monitored the feeding success (percent feeding incidence at length and mean feeding ratio at length) of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and sand lance (Ammodytes sp.) larvae in relation to prey density, light, temperature and potential predator density under the ice cover of southeastern Hudson Bay in the spring of 1988, 1989 and 1990. Both prey density and light limited larval fish feeding. The relationship between feeding success and actual food availability (nauplii density X irradiance) was adequately described by an Ivlev function which explained 64 and 76% of the variance in Arctic cod and sand lance feeding success respectively. By affecting both prey density and irradiance, the thickness of the Great Whale River plume (as defined by the depth of the 25 isohaline) was the main determinant of prey availability. Arctic cod and sand lance larvae stopped feeding when the depth of the 25 isohaline exceeded 9 m. Limitation of feeding success attributable to freshwater inputs occurred exclusively in 1988, the only time when the depth of the 25 isohaline exceeded the 9 m threshold. The close dependence of larval fish feeding success on the timing of the freshet and plume dynamics suggests a direct link between climate and survival of Arctic cod and sand lance larvae. The actual impact of climate fluctuations and/or hydro-electric developments on recruitment will depend on the fraction of the larval dispersal area of the two species that is affected by river plumes.     

Methodology for Validating Dynamic Origin–Destination Matrix Estimation Models with Implications for Advanced Traveler Information Systems

This paper describes a methodology for validating online dynamic O–D matrix estimation models using loop detector data in large-scale transportation networks. The simulation procedure focuses on travel aspects related to the collective trip structure of users, including the amount and duration of trips between O–D pairs, trip departure rates, average travel time from each origin and combinations of them. The analysis identifies emerging systematic patterns between these factors and issues related to the model performance, including network scale effects. This procedure aims to enhance the usage of prior O–D information based on, e.g. travel surveys, that are typically used in the estimation process. Moreover, it seeks to integrate the validation of dynamic O–D matrix estimation models with strategies for identifying target population groups for online planning and assessment of real-time travel information services within the context of Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS).     

F-TYPE不但具备了全轮驱动还配备了手动变速器

<正>虽然没有覆盖全部产品,但具有运动风格的四轮驱动系统和6挡手动变速器还是添加进了F-type的产品线在新改款撞豹F-type两门跑车和敞篷跑车的中控台上我们会发现一些新的惊喜,对于捷豹运动性能车的粉丝来说已经很长时间没有看到的装置——手动变速器换挡杆。在今天的高性能汽车市场上换挡拨片占据了主导地位,而捷豹的工程师们和公关部人员相信手动变     

An Active Roll-Moment Control Strategy for Narrow Tilting Commuter Vehicles

An automatic tilt control strategy for a narrow commuter vehicle is described. Such a vehicle would be enclosed like a conventional car but would bank into turns like a motorcycle and so it would feel quite unconventional to drive. The proposed tilt control system uses the steering to tilt the car over like a motorcycle but this is augmented by actively generating a rolling moment about the pivot axis between the tilting upper body and non-tilting base. The provision of this active direct tilt control enables the vehicle to remain upright at low or zero speed and also permits the designer to fine tune the transient roll response. Although it appears complex the proposed tilting control relies on only a few simple sensor measurements, some modest, microprocessor based signal processing and low power, low bandwidth steering and tilt control actuators which might be derived from existing automotive components.     

Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea ice (southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada). I. Interannual variability and predicted global warming influence on river plume dynamics and sea ice

Analysis of sea ice cover, runoff and air temperature observations in Hudson Bay shows marked interannual variability. This variability is thought to play a major role in determining overall productivity of the coastal ecosystem by changes to river plume extent, under-ice light conditions and nutrient levels during spring. Extensive field work off the Great Whale River in southeastern Hudson Bay has shown the importance of freshwater discharge, sea ice cover and meteorological forcing on the production of under-ice microalgae and the success of first feeding in fish larvae.Recent global climate model (GCM) results for a doubling of present atmospheric carbon dioxide indicate increases of both air temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Bay area. Predictions based on GCM results are used to estimate future changes to the sea ice and runoff regime. Sea ice breakup in the offshore is predicted to occur about one month earlier than presently. Estimates of the spring freshet in the Great Whale River indicate it will also advance by approximately one month. Onset of the spring freshet will occur about one month before Hudson Bay ice breakup, similar to present. A predicted reduction of about 35% in maximum sea ice thickness will lead to an increase in the ice-ocean interface irradiance and a decrease in melt water input to the Hudson Bay surface waters. These results are used in a discussion of potential effects of global climate change on northern coastal marine environments.