The construction of ShanghaI Pilot Free Trade Zone and the interest rate liberalization in China

It is of practical significance to study how to fully play the promoting effect of Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ) on China’s marketization of interest rate after setting up SFTZ. In terms of interest parity theory, this article tries to divide the process of China’s marketization of interest rate into different stages and conduct in-depth study of the formation mechanism of interest rate of each stage from the perspective of capital flow. The results show that marketization of interest rate is a system project. It can be divided into three stages: official interest rate supplemented market, two-track system and integration, according to the progress of marketization of interest rate, and the formation mechanism of interest rate of each stage varies. Free trade zone is a domestic and international hub for capital flow. The condition of capital flow influences capital supply, thus affecting the formation mechanism of interest rate domestically in free trade zone and promoting the progress of China’s marketization of interest rate. Marketization of interest rate, capital account liberalization, internationalization of RMB, and construction of international financial center are the supplementary, inseparable and transitional process. Therefore, the promoting effect of SFTZ on the marketization of interest rate, the capital account liberalization, the internationalization of RMB and the construction of international financial center should be made full use of. Finally, on the basis of it, this study explores hardships that China’s marketization of interest rate faces after the foundation of SFTZ and puts forward corresponding policy suggestion.     

引进外资的动因与结果:对中国工业化的反思

本文从中国经济增长两个阶段的不同特点入手,分析了20世纪90年代中期以后中国大量引进外资的深层次原因。采用制造业增加值占GDP的比重作为衡量中国工业化进展程度的指标对整个90年代中国工业化的进程进行了实证分析,结果发现,中国的工业化从90年代中期以来实际上长期处于停滞不前的状态。大量引进外资导致中国工业化过程中存在两个明显的“替代效应”,一是“外资替代效应”,二是“弱质替代强质”现象。两个“替代效应”对中国工业化和经济结构变化的深刻影响值得反思。