Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

A comprehensive study on the stability analysis of vehicle dynamics with pure/combined-slip tyre models

In this paper, a vehicle's lateral dynamic model is developed based on the pure and the combined-slip LuGre tyre models. Conventional vehicle's lateral dynamic methods derive handling models utilising linear tyres and pure-slip assumptions. The current article proposes a general lateral dynamic model, which takes the linear and nonlinear behaviours of the tyre into account using the pure and combined-slip assumptions separately. The developed methodology also incorporates various normal loads at each corner and provides a proper tyre–vehicle platform for control and estimation applications. Steady-state and transient LuGre models are also used in the model development and their responses are compared in different driving scenarios. Considering the fact that the vehicle dynamics is time-varying, the stability of the suggested time-varying model is investigated using an affine quadratic stability approach, and a novel approach to define the critical longitudinal speed is suggested and compared with that of conventional lateral stability methods. Simulations have been conducted and the results are used to validate the proposed method.     

Effects of transportation and built environment on general health and obesity

We develop models to investigate the effects of transportation, land-use, and built environment variables along with demographic and socio-economic factors on people’s general health and obesity. The work showed that transit-oriented development has a significant positive impact on the general health and obesity of the people. The study results suggest that one percent decrease in the use of automobiles can decrease obesity by 0.4%.     

A complex network perspective for characterizing urban travel demand patterns: graph theoretical analysis of large-scale origin–destination demand networks

Urban travel demand, consisting of thousands or millions of origin–destination trips, can be viewed as a large-scale weighted directed graph. The paper applies a complex network-motivated approach to understand and characterize urban travel demand patterns through analysis of statistical properties of origin–destination demand networks. We compare selected network characteristics of travel demand patterns in two cities, presenting a comparative network-theoretic analysis of Chicago and Melbourne. The proposed approach develops an interdisciplinary and quantitative framework to understand mobility characteristics in urban areas. The paper explores statistical properties of the complex weighted network of urban trips of the selected cities. We show that travel demand networks exhibit similar properties despite their differences in topography and urban structure. Results provide a quantitative characterization of the network structure of origin–destination demand in cities, suggesting that the underlying dynamical processes in travel demand networks are similar and evolved by the distribution of activities and interaction between places in cities.     

Multi-axle/articulated bus dynamics modeling: a reconfigurable approach

This paper proposed a unified model including yaw and roll dynamics for any axle or articulation configuration of buses by using a reconfigurable approach. First, all the possible existing configurations of buses are introduced, including the axle/articulation configuration, powertrain configuration, and active chassis control configuration. Consequently, the research is motivated by a key question: how can we develop a unified model that is inclusive and configurable to all of the above bus configurations? To develop the model, three layers of the modeling process are presented step by step. The magic formula and vertical load transfer are discussed to formulate the tyre model. It is noted that the case of the articulated bus is presented in an independent section but how it is included and unified in a general form is also explained. Finally, a modeling validation of axle or articulation configuration cases is performed and the comparative results to high-fidelity models show the feasibility, efficiency, and convenience of the reconfigurable approach. As the crucial feature, the resulting model can be potentially applied to model-based controller design in any buses without reformulating the model. This will greatly benefit the vehicle dynamics control and also future autonomous buses. Although the focus of this paper is buses, the proposed approach actually covers any multi-axle/articulated vehicles, like trucks, tractor-trailers.     

An automated approach to passive sonar classification using binary image features

This paper proposes a new method for ship recognition and classification using sound produced and radiated underwater. To do so, a three-step procedure is proposed. First, the preprocessing operations are utilized to reduce noise effects and provide signal for feature extraction. Second, a binary image, made from frequency spectrum of signal segmentation, is formed to extract effective features. Third, a neural classifier is designed to classify the signals. Two approaches, the proposed method and the fractal-based method are compared and tested on real data. The comparative results indicated better recognition ability and more robust performance of the proposed method than the fractal-based method. Therefore, the proposed method could improve the recognition accuracy of underwater acoustic targets.     

Telecommuting Suitability Modeling: An Approach Based on the Concept of Abstract job

A new approach to modeling telecommuting suitability is proposed in this paper. The approach, based on the concept of abstract job, can be employed to assess the level of suitability for telecommuting of the bundle of tasks comprising a job. By abstract job is meant a way of considering jobs on the basis of their elements and tasks, representing the general structure of the job. In this study, the basic tasks a job is composed of, pertaining to telecommuting suitability, are identified. To show the applicability of the approach, discrete choice models are calibrated, based on a sample of 245 employees in Tehran, Iran, indicating that from among the 6 tasks identified, 5 tasks are significantly associated with the level of telecommuting suitability.     

Efficient pricing of ships in the dry bulk sector of the shipping industry

The aim of this paper was to investigate the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in conjunction with Rational Expectations in the formation of dry bulk ship prices over the period January 1976-December 1997. Tests for market efficiency include those of orthogonality and unpredictability of excess returns on investments and tests based on the Vector Autoregressive models proposed by Campbell and Shiller. The latter methodology is extended further to a 3-variable Vector Autoregressive model, which is applicable to real assets with limited economic life. Results indicate that prices for newbuilding and second-hand vessels are not determined efficiently in the sense of Fama. Failure of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the formation of ship prices is explained by the existence of timevarying risk premia, which relate excess returns to investors' perceptions of risk. These are modelled through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) models. The results have important implications for shipping investment strategies, both in the newbuilding and second-hand markets.     

A behavioral analysis of freight mode choice decisions

This paper develops a behavioral analysis of freight mode choice decisions that could provide a basis for an acceptable analytical tool for policy assessment. The paper specifically examines the way that truck and rail compete for commodity movement in the US. Two binary mode choice models are introduced in which some shipment-specific variables (e.g. distance, weight and value) and mode-specific variables (e.g. haul time and cost) are found to be determinants. The specifications of the non-selected choice are imputed in a machine learning module. Shipping cost is found to be a central factor for rail shipments, while road shipments are found to be more sensitive to haul time. Sensitivity of mode choice decisions is further analyzed under different fuel price fluctuation scenarios. A low level of mode choice sensitivity is found with respect to fuel price, such that even a 50% increase in fuel cost does not cause a significant modal shift between truck and rail.     

Mode choice and travel distance joint models in school trips

We test a copula-based joint discrete–continuous model to unravel mode choice and travel distance decisions in a joint framework for school trips. This framework explicitly accounts for common unobserved factors that may affect both the mode choice and travel distance. Joint estimation of the models makes a significant difference in the effect of travel distance on willingness to walk to school. The absolute value of the travel distance coefficient in the mode choice model increases by 22% when a joint formulation is adopted instead of the conventional single estimations. We find a significant decrease of 19% in the coefficient of travel safety perception in the joint mode choice model compared to the single model. This underscores the impact of model specification, in terms of the variable effect interpretation and policy assessments. The effect magnitude of several policy-sensitive variables is discussed and compared with previous studies. Particularly, we indicate that the probability of walking is reduced by 0.85% due to a 1% increase in travel distance; accordingly, it propels parents to select non-active modes, particularly school bus. This study also demonstrates how addressing parental concerns about travel safety could double the propensity to walk to school.